As China Calls for Peace, U.S. Believes Beijing Is Considering Artillery and Drone Deliveries to Moscow

U.S. intelligence shows possible Chinese weapons deliveries to help Moscow stave off expected Ukrainian offensive this year

U.S. officials say China is considering delivering artillery and drones to Russian forces that could prolong the war, even as Beijing called for peace talks to end the fighting on the first anniversary of the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

The officials said no weapons deliveries have yet taken place. But, if China were to go ahead and deliver lethal aid to Russia, the resulting tensions could shape Western relations with Beijing for years and potentially have profound consequences on the battlefield in Ukraine, at a point when both sides are gearing up for a spring offensive.

Secretary of State Antony Blinken and other U.S. officials have said that China is considering providing “lethal support” to Russia, but haven’t spelled out what systems might be sent.

U.S. officials familiar with intelligence reports say that if Beijing opts to provide weapons, it would also include artillery in addition to drones and possibly other weapons to help Russian forces stave off an expected Ukrainian counteroffensive this summer.

On Friday President Biden told reporters that “there’s no evidence so far” that China is helping Russia in its fight against Ukraine. The president said he had a “long talk” over the summer with Chinese leader Xi Jinping and emphasized that hundreds of companies pulled out of Russia after the invasion. Mr. Biden said that at the time he reminded the Chinese leader that his own government has said China’s future requires investment from Western countries.

Separately Friday, Mr. Biden said in an interview with ABC News that the U.S. would “impose severe sanctions” on China or any entity that helped Russia’s military effort in Ukraine. “We would respond,” Mr. Biden said.

The Biden administration is considering declassifying some of the intelligence that has led them to these conclusions so that they can share with allied governments and the public, U.S. officials said.

The German magazine Der Spiegel has reported that Russia was negotiating with a Chinese company for 100 suicide drones that would be ready in the spring. The drones are believed to be capable of carrying explosives, the report said citing unnamed military experts.

The officials said any Chinese decision to provide arms would prompt Western discussions about fresh sanctions on China. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said Thursday that the U.S. would continue to warn Chinese government officials, companies and banks about the potential consequences of helping Russia.

China has criticized Western arms deliveries to Ukraine, and Beijing officials have denied it is considering sending weapons to Russia.

Russia has lost thousands of artillery pieces, tanks and other critical equipment in the war so far and has been burning through ammunition at rapid rates. In recent weeks, Russian fighting units have complained that they can’t get adequate supplies of artillery shells.

Some military analysts conclude that without sources of resupply, Russia won’t be able to repel the projected Ukrainian counteroffensive this spring and summer that is being planned with the help of new Western armaments.

The peace proposal from Beijing—in a 12-point position paper issued Friday in China—largely repeated well-known Chinese government positions on the war and didn’t condemn the Russian invasion. The paper didn’t call for an immediate cease-fire or propose Chinese mediation.

China’s first point declares that the “sovereignty, independence and territorial integrity of all countries must be effectively upheld” and reiterated its opposition to the use of nuclear weapons.

“China’s been trying to have it both ways,” Mr. Blinken told ABC News Friday morning. “It’s on the one hand trying to present itself publicly as neutral and seeking peace, while at the same time it is talking up Russia’s false narrative about the war.”

Speaking later to the U.N. Security Council, Mr. Blinken alluded to China’s peace proposal without singling out Beijing by name.

“Members of this Council should not fall into the false equivalency of calling on both sides to stop fighting, or calling on other nations to stop supporting Ukraine in the name of peace,” he said. “No member of this Council should call for peace while supporting Russia’s war on Ukraine and on the U.N. Charter.”

The Pentagon announced on Friday another $2 billion in long-term military support for Ukraine. The package includes additional rockets for Himars launchers, more 155-mm artillery rounds, three new kinds of drones as well as Switchblade drones that crash into their targets, counter drone systems, mine clearing equipment and other weaponry.

The package will finance purchases from the U.S. defense industry, meaning some weaponry in the package may not reach Ukraine for another year or so.

Last week, Mr. Blinken warned China’s top foreign policy official, Wang Yi, in Munich to refrain from weapons deliveries. This warning and Mr. Blinken’s public statements were aimed to shine a spotlight on the Chinese deliberations in the hope of dissuading Beijing from coming to Moscow’s rescue.

“It can’t help the peace if China effectively supplies the one nation that has broken the international law on the sovereignty of Ukraine and been inflicting war crimes,” British defense secretary Ben Wallace said on Friday. “But I’m also confident that China is pretty clear that it wants this to stop,” he told Sky News.

Other European officials have also urged China not to supply weapons to Moscow. European Union foreign policy chief Josep Borrell said Monday he told Mr. Wang that the step would be “a red line in our relationship,” though he didn’t specify what the consequences would be. He said Mr. Wang told him China didn’t plan to do it.

China has already provided significant support to the Russian economy, buying up Russian oil and natural gas. It has also supplied equipment that has military uses to Russian defense companies that have been sanctioned by the West, according to Russian customs data. China says the claim is “speculative.”

China’s effort to cast itself as a neutral party and peacemaker through the position paper contrasts with the reality of the warm relations its leader Mr. Xi has maintained with Russian President Vladimir Putin and Beijing’s aggressive rhetorical support for Russia’s position on what it calls, instead of a war, the Ukraine Crisis. Mr. Xi isn’t known to have spoken with Ukraine’s president since the hostilities broke out.

Yet, planting a flag for peace also marks a rare move by Beijing to insert itself into a global crisis where its national interests are primarily indirect. Analysts said Beijing is positioning itself as a possible participant in any subsequent peace talks and implicitly demanding international participation, not a deal brokered solely by Western countries.

Some European governments would value Chinese buy-in on any eventual peace accord, presuming it would increase the likelihood of Russian compliance. Ukraine, in a 10-point peace plan it put forward late last year, has accepted that some peace talks will eventually be necessary to settle the conflict.

“The mere fact that China has now officially joined this chorus may be the most important outcome of this exercise,” said Bates Gill, who directs the Asia Society Policy Institute’s Center for China Analysis in New York. “It is certainly precedent-breaking to see China weighing in so formally on a matter of European security.”