China US Tensions to Rise in 2023

· The Worldview 2023 Annual Geopolitical Forecast

- China’s economic growth will slowly recover as Beijing eases COVID-19 restrictions and offers modest economic support, but this growth will be constrained by ongoing regulatory scrutiny on the tech sector and efforts to deleverage the country’s ailing real estate sector. Insufficient cooperation with its allies will see the United States unilaterally impose more significant restrictions on China’s tech sector as part of Washington's broader effort to counter Beijing’s growing technological prowess.

- Russia’s invasion of Ukraine will continue but neither side will achieve territorial gains sufficient to significantly degrade the other's negotiating position, ensuring continued Western sanctions on Russia and upward pressure on commodity prices.

- The European Commission will focus policy on shielding the bloc from the energy and cost of living crises, as well as increasing its autonomy in areas like technology and raw materials.