Emerging Markets Snap Up Cheap Dollars to Build Reserves
Nations from Colombia to
Indonesia are taking advantage of the longest emerging-market-currencies rally
since 2009 to pile up record reserves, bolstering their ability to fend off the
next foreign-exchange market crisis.
The 12 developing nations with
the biggest foreign reserves outside of China added $34 billion in the past
three months, lifting their combined holdings to $2.98 trillion on April 30,
the most since Bloomberg began compiling the data in 2008. A gauge of 20 major
emerging-market currencies is recovering after a 12-month plunge of 11 percent sent it to a four-year low in February.
Emerging-market reserves were
depleted by $22 billion in January alone as nations fended off currency
speculators to tackle the fallout from the Federal Reserve cutting bond-buying
and global political and financial instability. Since then, the currencies
gauge has rallied 5 percent from the February low,
with policy makers now buying dollars to temper the gains, which make exports
more expensive, while giving themselves more resources to help curb selloffs in
the future.
Of the dozen biggest reserve
holders among developing economies, India, Indonesia and Turkey boosted their
holdings the most as government efforts to tame volatility and narrow
current-account deficits succeeded in luring back overseas investors.
India’s coffers expanded 7.6 percent since the end of January through 12 May to $285
billion after touching a three-year low of $247 billion in September.
Indonesia’s reserves gained 4.9 percent and Turkey’s
rose 4.1 percent.
The reserve pools have
expanded as global investors returned to buying the nations’ assets. Foreigners
hold record amount of Indonesian local-currency bonds, while they increased
their Indian holdings by 21 percent this year,
spurring a 5.5 percent surge in the rupiah versus the
U.S. currency and a 3.6 percent rise in the rupee.
Net overseas purchases of
Turkish debt were $697 million this quarter, trimming the net selling this year
to $2.9 billion. The lira has rallied 3.9 percent in
2014.
China, not included in the
reserve index because its size would skew results, boosted its foreign reserves
by $126.8 billion in the first quarter to a record $3.95 trillion.
Russia Risk
Russia has been an exception
among developing economies, depleting its reserves to stem losses in the ruble triggered by the country’s escalating conflict with neighboring Ukraine.
Bank Rossii
sold $24.7 billion and 2.5 billion euros ($3.44 billion) in the past two months
as the growing international sanctions against President Vladimir Putin
prompted investors to pull money from Russia.
The ruble
has dropped 5.7 percent this year against the dollar.
For countries that rely on
exports for economic growth, building reserves helps temper currency gains to
maintain competitiveness in global markets. Colombia saw reserves rise 0.7 percent in March to $41.8 billion, the biggest increase
since September, as the peso’s 6.3 percent advance
from its four-year low on Feb. 20 allowed it to buy the U.S. currency cheaply.
Buying Time
The finance ministry of the
Andean nation, which exports coal, oil, and coffee, will restart dollar
purchases as a competitive exchange rate is “for the benefit of the country,” minister Mauricio Cardenas commented.
In South Korea, where exports
account for about half of the $1 trillion economy, foreign-currency reserves
climbed to a record $354 billion at the end of March as the central bank said
it would move to stabilize the currency if necessary. The won has strengthened
2.7 this year.