FIEO Claims Rupee Depreciation Marginal for Export Growth, Outlook for Rupee Stable

FIEO Chief demanded stability in exchange rate not only for economy but also for exports as impact of rupee depreciation on exports is only marginal.

Mr M Rafeeque Ahmed, President, FIEO while commenting on RBI's latest data released for the week ending 18th may 2012 stated that fluctuations of the rupee between may 8 and may 11 varied between -5.14% to -7.07% and the inter-bank forward premia for the same period varied from 8.66% to 7.61% (for 1 month) while the 3/6 month premia for the above period fluctuated between 7.57%/7.08% and 6.82%/6.19% indicative not only of interest differentials as it were but a more stable perception of the rupee-dollar equation in a 3/6 month time frame. However for MSME export sector, fluctuations of the rupee-dollar equation has its hedging costs which constricts lean margins further in a price sensitive/demand scarce market.

FIEO chief elaborated that OECD had toned down projections for global growth which are estimated at 3.4% this year and 4.2% in the next. and believes that the reason for slower growth in India is due to its own policy issues rather than the global turmoil. and as a result India’s potential growth, which averaged 7.4% per annum during 2001-07, will be lower at 7.2% during 2012-17.