Hong Kong’s Population Drops for 3rd Straight Year, while City Posts Net Outflow of 60,000 Residents in 2022

· City’s record low 32,500 births marks sixth consecutive year of decline, which Professor Paul Yip from HKU suggests will not be reversed any time soon

· Government argues net outflow includes movement of Hong Kong residents into and out of city for various purposes such as work, study and migration

Hong Kong’s population has dropped for a third straight year, with a net outflow of 60,000 residents contributing to a decline of nearly 1 per cent in 2022.

According to official figures released on Thursday, the city’s population dipped 0.9 per cent from the year before to 7,333,200 in 2022, while births plunged to a record low of 32,500. The overall population drop was deeper than the previous year’s 0.3 per cent decrease.

About 62,100 deaths were recorded last year, outweighing births by 29,600. It was the third consecutive year that there were more deaths than births in Hong Kong, after the city recorded its first ever negative natural population growth in 2020.

The net outflow of 60,000 residents reported by the Census and Statistics Department suggests the city’s emigration wave has continued against the backdrop of stringent Covid-19 controls and Hongkongers accessing new pathways to settle overseas.

Local authorities logged a net outflow of 27,300 in 2021, when some foreign countries introduced the dedicated immigration pathways.

The government said the figures included the movement of Hong Kong residents in and out of the city for various reasons, such as work, study and migration.

“The breakdown of figures is not available. Hong Kong residents travelling abroad are not required to declare to the government their purpose of travel. Therefore, the government does not have direct statistics on emigration of Hong Kong residents,” it said.

The number of usual residents, referring to those who usually stay in Hong Kong, stood at 7.19 million by the end of 2022, down by 143,800 or 2 per cent from the 7.34 million two years ago, according to the latest figures.

A government spokesman added the population decrease in the second half of 2022 had narrowed compared with the first six months.

“The inflow of people into Hong Kong has remained at a low level for most of the time in 2022, before seeing a slight rebound near the end of 2022, subsequent to the gradual relaxation of anti-epidemic control measures,” the spokesman said.

Several Western countries, including Britain, Canada and Australia, have offered “lifeboat” settlement schemes to Hongkongers in response to Beijing imposing a national security law on the city in 2020.

According to data announced by the UK Home Office earlier this month, more than 144,500 Hongkongers have been successful in their applications for British National (Overseas) visas to settle in the country since the scheme’s launch in 2021.

Successful applicants can apply for residency after a five-year stay and citizenship after one year in the country.

Canadian government statistics showed nearly 17,400 open work permits or extensions were issued to Hongkongers since the start of the country’s own scheme in 2021 up to October last year.

Those with a three-year open work permit can qualify for permanent residency after working full-time for at least a year or chalking up 1,560 hours of labour.

The city’s workforce shrank by about 140,000 from the second quarter of 2020 to the same period in 2022, according to the government, with anecdotal evidence suggesting strict Covid-19 policies had driven some residents away, including expatriates.

Chief Executive John Lee Ka-chiu last October announced a global drive to attract top talent, with a special visa for those who earn HK$2.5 million or more annually and graduates from the world’s top 100 universities with relevant experience. The scheme had received 10,810 applications nearly two months after its launch.

Meanwhile, the city recorded its sixth consecutive year of declining birth rates, reporting a 12 per cent drop compared with 2021.

Professor Paul Yip Siu-fai, associate dean of the University of Hong Kong’s faculty of social sciences, said the population trend was likely to continue at least until 2024 due to the city’s persistent low birth rate and the outflow of residents.

He said while the emigration trend had started to slow, there was little chance for the low birth rate to pick up, as the new generation chose not to have children or delayed getting married.

“I think the problem of a low birth rate is difficult to resolve. Even if the government offers some subsidies to boost the birth rate, it may only increase the number by a few thousand, but the number will not return to the level at around 50,000 to 60,000 [a year],” the population expert said, referring to the annual total in 2019, when 52,900 births were registered.

The Federation of Education Workers earlier warned that about 10 per cent of Hong Kong’s kindergartens, or around 100, could close if enrolment continued to fall.

Regina Ip Lau Suk-yee, chairwoman of the New People’s Party and convenor of the city’s de facto cabinet, the Executive Council, earlier tabled a submission to the government during the budget consultation, which suggested a subsidy of HK$50,000 (US$6,360) should be provided to residents choosing to use assisted reproductive technologies.

Those methods include in vitro fertilisation, embryo transfer, and freezing of eggs and sperm. Ip also suggested extending the storage period for such treatments to allow residents more flexibility in family planning.

The government also announced the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate for the rolling three-month period covering November to January had dropped to 3.4 per cent, down from 3.5 per cent for October to December.

The underemployment rate also decreased slightly from 1.5 per cent to 1.4 per cent during the same period.

Secretary for Labour and Welfare Chris Sun Yuk-han said the labour market conditions in the coming months should improve further as economic activities gradually returned to normal.

A rebound in the city’s tourism industry and the full resumption of travel between Hong Kong and the mainland would also contribute to the positive outlook, he said.