Hormuz Shipping Falters as Renewed U.S.-Iran Conflict Raises Risks for Global Energy Trade

Companies desperately want to get their ships moving through the Strait of Hormuz, but face mounting risks. “Things are becoming uglier by the minute,” one executive said.

· Renewed military exchanges between the United States and Iran have undermined last month's ceasefire, prompting shipping companies to delay vessel movements through the Strait of Hormuz.

· StealthGas CEO Harry Vafias said his company has postponed sending another vessel through the strait, citing rapidly worsening security conditions despite successfully moving one ship earlier under U.S. military protection.

· An international maritime risk assessment body has maintained the threat level in the Strait of Hormuz as "severe."

· During the initial phase of the conflict, around 1,500 ships were stranded after Iran effectively took control of shipping movements through the strategic waterway.

· A mid-June truce between President Donald Trump and Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian briefly restored shipping, but Iran continued asserting that vessels should transit only through waters under its control.

· Many commercial vessels instead opted for an Omani coastal route protected by the U.S. military, a move that Iran strongly opposed.

· Following Iranian attacks on three commercial vessels, the United States retaliated with strikes on 170 targets in Iran, while Qatar attempted to mediate a renewed ceasefire.

· Maritime traffic has again fallen sharply:

o Only 22 ships transited the Strait of Hormuz on Thursday, according to Kpler.

o Before the conflict, the strait handled more than 130 vessels per day.

· A prolonged reduction in shipping could once again disrupt Persian Gulf oil and gas exports, increasing global fuel prices despite improved energy resilience through alternative supply routes.

· The International Energy Agency (IEA) reported that global oil supply had risen sharply last month as shipping resumed after the June truce, but warned that the renewed hostilities have clouded the outlook.

· Since early May, U.S. Central Command says it has assisted:

o More than 800 commercial vessels, and

o The transport of 380 million barrels of crude oil through the Strait of Hormuz.

o Many escorted ships reportedly switch off their location trackers, making independent verification difficult.

· Shipping companies face two difficult choices:

o Use the U.S.-protected Omani route, risking Iranian attacks; or

o Seek Iranian permission to transit through Iranian waters.

· StealthGas has ruled out the Iranian route because of concerns its U.S.-listed status could make it vulnerable to Iranian action.

· The June ceasefire memorandum committed Iran to use its "best efforts" to ensure safe commercial navigation for 60 days while discussing future administration of the waterway with Oman.

· Military analysts caution that U.S. naval protection cannot guarantee complete defence against Iranian missiles and one-way attack drones.

· Global energy markets have become somewhat more resilient through:

o Greater use of Gulf export pipelines,

o Increased U.S. crude exports,

o Large strategic stockpiles, particularly in China, and

o Demand-management measures.

· Nevertheless, the oil market still depends heavily on the Strait of Hormuz remaining open for seaborne energy trade.

· Brent crude traded around $76 per barrel on Friday—well below its wartime peak of $118, but still above pre-conflict levels.

· Analysts believe Iran's objective is not necessarily to close the strait completely but to maintain uncertainty that influences shipping decisions and energy prices.

· Experts note that Iran appears to have adopted tactics similar to those used by the Houthis in the Red Sea, where persistent security threats have reduced shipping volumes to 55–60% of pre-2023 levels, demonstrating how the threat of attacks alone can deter commercial shipping.

Key Takeaway:

The renewed U.S.-Iran confrontation has revived security risks in the Strait of Hormuz, forcing shipowners to balance commercial operations against escalating military threats. Although global energy markets are better prepared than before, sustained disruption to this critical shipping lane could tighten oil supplies, raise fuel prices, and prolong uncertainty in global trade.

[ABS News Service/11.07.2026]

Harry Vafias, a chief executive of a shipping company, recently got one of his vessels out of the Persian Gulf on a route protected by the U.S. military.

But after Iran and the United States attacked each other this week, all but ending the truce the countries agreed to last month, Mr. Vafias, the head of StealthGas, based in Athens, said he was holding off on moving another ship through the Strait of Hormuz.

“Things are becoming uglier by the minute,” he said in an email, “so we are not taking the other out till we see what happens.”

The factors that Mr. Vafias had to weigh typify the dilemma facing numerous other ship operators: They are eager to resume normal business but face great peril if they do. On Friday, an international body that assesses maritime risks reiterated the threat level in the strait as severe.

In the early days of the war, as many as 1,500 ships were stranded when Iran seized effective control of ship traffic in the strait. A deal signed in mid-June by President Trump and Iran’s president, Masoud Pezeshkian, offered hope that more ships would get through. And many did, ferrying supplies critical to global energy markets.

But even after the deal, Iran has continued to claim its waters as the only viable route. In response, ships made more use of paths close to Oman’s coastline, guided and protected by the United States military. The reliance on the Omani route has drawn Iran’s wrath. This week, after Iranian attacks on three vessels, the United States struck 170 targets in Iran in retaliation on Tuesday and Wednesday. Qatari mediators on Friday attempted to salvage the cease-fire.

“Iran would like there to be nothing flowing through the Omani lane, and they have not been able to stop all of what’s happening,” said Daniel Sternoff, a senior fellow at Columbia University’s Center on Global Energy Policy.

Iran’s ship attacks and the U.S. responses caused ship traffic to plummet from the levels reached after the June truce.

On Thursday, 22 ships went through the strait, the lowest level in three weeks, according to Kpler, a maritime data firm. More than 130 vessels passed through daily before the war.

If ship operators stay away, oil and gas flows out of the Persian Gulf could once again slow to a trickle. While the world has taken steps to deal with oil and gas shortages, another shutdown of the strait would again push up prices of gasoline and diesel for consumers.

On Friday, the International Energy Agency reported a “sharp” increase in global oil supply last month because ships had started moving again through the strait. But this week’s hostilities leave the outlook murky.

Now much hinges on whether ship operators will keep using the Omani route with American assistance.

Since early May, the United States has helped more than 800 commercial ships and 380 million barrels of crude oil through the strait, according to Capt. Tim Hawkins, a spokesman for the U.S. Central Command. Many of the vessels going through with U.S. assistance do so with their location trackers turned off, making it hard to independently verify the U.S. tallies.

Another option for ship operators is to seek Iran’s permission to transit the strait through its waters.

Mr. Vafias of StealthGas said he was not considering the Iranian route, which other European shipping companies had used in recent weeks. He said he was concerned that Iran could target the company because it is listed on a U.S. stock exchange. “We want to stay clear of Iranian waters,” he said.

The memorandum of understanding that established the June truce said Iran would use “its best efforts for the safe passage of commercial vessels with no charge for 60 days.” The agreement also said Iran would have discussions with Oman about how the waterway would be administered. Before the war, neither Oman nor Iran administered shipping in the strait.

Ship operators not wanting to deal with the Iranians will have to continue to weigh whether to take the Omani route and risk an Iranian attack. Some companies with customers who want them to enter the Persian Gulf are faced with turning away business.

Captain Hawkins declined to say whether the ships hit this week were going through the strait with U.S. assistance. Central Command has said on social media that it responds in real time to Iran’s attacks on shipping. But those efforts may not be able to prevent all missiles and one-way attack drones from hitting vessels, military experts say.

“It’s extremely difficult at the ranges that we’re talking about, and the various kinds of systems that the Iranian military fields, to be 100 percent effective,” said Joshua Tallis, an analyst at Center for Naval Analyses.

Early in the war, Iran’s threats against shipping stoked fears of lasting shortages of oil and gas. The economic impact of the disruption to supplies has been mitigated somewhat by how the world has adjusted.

More Gulf oil is being transported through pipelines. The United States is exporting more crude, and big oil importers like China have relied on large stockpiles and taken steps to curb consumption.

Still, the oil market is counting on the restoration of the Strait of Hormuz as a reliable option for the seaborne trade in energy.

On Friday, Brent crude oil, the international benchmark, traded at about $76 per barrel. That is well below its peak of $118 a barrel during the war but higher than it was before the truce was called into question this week. The war has shown Iran’s capacity to move energy prices.

“They’re trying to shape market behavior, and as long as they can do that with these sorts of scares and periodic attacks, that’s sufficient,” Mr. Tallis said.

Iran’s attacks on ships around the strait come after years of experience gained watching how the Houthi militia in Yemen, proxies of Iran, has managed to threaten shipping in the Red Sea. Three years after the Houthis began attacking ships in retaliation for Israel’s war in Gaza, Red Sea traffic is at only 55 to 60 percent of what it was before 2023, said Michelle Wiese Bockmann, a maritime intelligence analyst at Windward.

“That’s a very powerful figure that illustrates that just the threat prevents certain shipowners and cargoes interests from using it,” she said. “Iran has learned a lot from what the Houthis have done in the Red Sea.”