India Industrial-Output Growth Rebounds from Earlier Contraction

Indian industrial output rebounded in May from a contraction after the central bank cut interest rates earlier in the year to bolster a weakening economy.

Production at factories, utilities and mines rose 2.4 percent from a year earlier, after a revised 0.9 percent decline in April, the Central Statistical Office said in a statement in New Delhi on 12 July.

Factory output has been subdued in India for most of this year as Europe’s debt crisis saps demand for Asian exports and price rises crimp spending at home. The Reserve Bank of India left borrowing costs unchanged in June after a cut in April, and has signaled inflation above 7.5 percent limits scope to join neighbors from China to South Korea in easing policy this month.

The rupee has slumped about 20 percent against the dollar in the past 12 months as Indian economic expansion slowed to a nine-year low. The currency strengthened 0.1 percent to 55.595 per dollar in Mumbai. The BSE India Sensitive Index (SENSEX) slipped 1 percent, while the yield on the 8.15 percent government bond due in June 2022 declined to 8.13 percent from 8.14 percent on 11 July.

Accelerating Inflation

Indian inflation probably climbed to 7.61 percent last month from 7.55 percent in May according to the median estimate in a News survey ahead of a report on wholesale prices next week. That would be the fastest pace among the biggest emerging economies, stoked by costlier imports, climbing food prices and bottlenecks in the economy.

Cooling growth, intensifying price pressures, fiscal and trade deficits and uncertainty over tax changes have added pressure on Prime Minister Manmohan Singh’s government to overhaul policies and support the expansion in Asia’s third-largest economy.

His efforts to open up the nation to more investment have been hampered by infighting in the ruling coalition and corruption scandals.

Some companies still see long-term potential in India. Swedish furniture retailer IKEA said last month it wants to open stores in the nation and may invest as much as 1.5 billion euros ($1.8 billion). Montek Singh Ahluwalia, deputy chairman of India’s planning commission, has said India remains capable of achieving as much as 8.5 percent annual growth.

Global Slowdown

Officials across the globe are stepping up efforts to protect their economies. The Bank of Korea, the People’s Bank of China, the European Central Bank and the Bank of England all eased monetary policy this month.

Reserve Bank Governor Duvvuri Subbarao next reviews borrowing costs on July 31. He cut the benchmark repurchase rate by 0.5 percentage point to 8 percent in April. Gross domestic product rose 5.3 percent in the three months through March from a year earlier, the weakest pace since 2003.