India is Expected to Surpass China as the World’s most Populous Nation Next Year

We’ve got company. On 15 November, the U.N. said the world population had reached eight billion.

Growth has been accelerating: In 1927, we hit two billion. Just 11 years ago, we passed seven billion. But it is expected to slow. The U.N. expects 15 years to pass before we hit nine billion, and another 22 before 10 billion.

And the growth rate has been uneven around the world. About 70 percent of the recent growth spurt happened in low- and lower-middle-income countries, most of which are in sub-Saharan Africa. More than 90 percent of the next billion is expected to come from those two groups of countries. That often strains already-struggling systems.

In populous nations, slowing rates threaten to upend their societies. Take China, where births hit a historic low in 2021. That, coupled with its increased life expectancy, could create labor shortages and slow economic growth.

Climate: Population growth has contributed to climate change, deforestation and biodiversity loss, the U.N. said. Our levels of consumption and production, experts say, are unsustainable.

What’s next: India is expected to surpass China as the world’s most populous nation next year.