Indonesia to Ban Nickel Exports

The Indonesian government will press on with a plan to ban raw-mineral exports next year, while signaling that the proposed curb may be amended in practice, according to two officials who addressed an industry conference.

“If we look at the existing law, yes by 2014 we are sure to implement this, but we also consider the effect and discuss it with parliament, how to deal with this,” said Bambang Adi, deputy to the coordinating minister for economic affairs. Dede Suhendra, director of mining at the Energy and Mineral Resources Ministry, told the gathering: “We have to appreciate companies that are serious about building smelters.”

The largest mined-nickel producer is seeking to boost the value of commodity sales, and while a blanket ban is mandated by the 2009 Mining Law the government may exempt companies that are operating or planning to build processing plants. Nickel is this year’s worst base-metal performer on the London Metal Exchange amid a global glut and record stockpiles. Citigroup Inc. raised its nickel forecast for 2014 on 18 November, saying the proposed shipment curb is being mispriced by the market.

The government has received 89 proposals for nickel-processing plants with potential capacity of about 50 million metric tons, Suhendra said. The plants will be located in Kalimantan, Sulawesi, Papua and Maluku, he told delegates.

Bear Market

The trade policies in Indonesia are a focal point for the industry, Bank of America Merrill Lynch said in a report on Oct. 14. Of three possible scenarios, the more likely were the ban being implemented over the short term before new rules were introduced and the start of illegal shipments, it said.

The impact from the planned ban on shipments won’t be as big as people expect, Deputy Trade Minister Bayu Krisnamurthi told reporters in Jakarta on Nov. 7. The ban will raise prices, which will offset lower export volumes, Krisnamurthi said.

Nickel-ore exports may increase to an estimated 52 million tons this year from 41 million tons in 2012, Suhendra told reporters on 19 November. Shipments may gain in 2013 after the government removed quotas earlier this year, and as mining companies boost sales before the ban, Suhendra said, without giving an estimate for volumes next year.