Istanbul Mediates with Russia and Ukraine to get 22mn Wheat moving

Negotiators are set to meet in Istanbul after months of talks that have made little progress. Russia is risking angering allies like Venezuela and Iran as it seeks buyers for its oil.

Russian and Ukrainian negotiators are scheduled to meet Wednesday in Istanbul, in the increasingly desperate effort to release huge amounts of grain from Ukraine’s ports and ship it to a world facing rising hunger.

Officials have tried for months to break the impasse without triggering an escalation in the war or, worse, a direct confrontation between Russia and NATO. Wednesday’s meeting raises hopes for a breakthrough, but in interviews, more than half a dozen officials directly involved or briefed on the plans cited obstacles ranging from the mundane to the downright “Mission Impossible.”

Proposed alternatives, moving the grain overland or through the Danube River, have been too slow, cumbersome and small-scale to address the challenge of more than 22 million tons of grain stuck in Odesa and other Black Sea ports that are blockaded by Russian warships.

The urgency is real. Failing to move the grain already at the ports and in silos in the coming weeks will begin to hamper the summer harvest, as farmers will have no place to store their fresh crop.

The war in Ukraine is already contributing to a global food crisis that has sent the price of vital commodities like wheat and barley to historic highs.

The most immediate and consequential fallout is looming famine in the Horn of Africa, where years of rain failures are already devastating communities in Somalia and parts of neighboring countries. Ukraine, the world’s fourth-largest exporter of grains, is a key source for that region.

The international diplomatic efforts are being hampered by problems that include circumnavigating mines in the Black Sea, arranging at-sea inspections of the cargo, and, crucially, convincing the Kremlin it has an interest in playing ball.