MoSPI Releases Provisional Estimates (PE) of National Income for 2022-23 and Quarterly Estimates of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the quarter January-March of 2022-23

· Press Note on Provisional Estimates of National Income 2022-23 and Quarterly Estimates of Gross Domestic Product for the Fourth Quarter (January-March) of 2022-23

The National Statistical Office (NSO), Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI) is releasing in this Press Note the Provisional Estimates (PE) of National Income for 2022-23 and Quarterly Estimates of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the quarter January-March of 2022-23 (Q4 2022-23) along with the corresponding estimates of expenditure components of GDP both at Constant and Current Prices.

2. Annual and quarterly estimates of GVA at Basic Prices by kind of economic activity along with year on year percent changes, expenditure components of GDP and annual estimates of Gross/Net National Income and Per Capita Income for the years 2020-21, 2021-22 and 2022-23 at Constant (2011-12) and Current Prices are given in Statements 1 to 8.

3. Real GDP or GDP at Constant (2011-12) Prices in the year 2022-23 is estimated to attain a level of ₹160.06 lakh crore, as against the First Revised Estimates of GDP for the year 2021-22 of ₹149.26 lakh crore. The growth in real GDP during 2022-23 is estimated at 7.2 per cent as compared to 9.1 per cent in 2021-22.

4. Nominal GDP or GDP at Current Prices in the year 2022-23 is estimated to attain a level of ₹272.41 lakh crore, as against ₹234.71 lakh crore in 2021-22, showing a growth rate of 16.1 percent.

5. GDP at Constant (2011-12) Prices in Q4 2022-23 is estimated at ₹43.62 lakh crore, as against ₹41.12 lakh crore in Q4 2021-22, showing a growth of 6.1 percent. GDP at Current Prices in Q4 2022-23 is estimated at ₹71.82 lakh crore, as against ₹65.05 lakh crore in Q4 2021-22, showing a growth of 10.4 percent.

6. Provisional and Quarterly Estimates of National Income are compiled using the benchmark-indicator method i.e. the estimates available for the previous year referred to as the benchmark year (2021-22 in this case) are extrapolated using the relevant indicators reflecting the performance of sectors. The Second Advance Estimates (SAE) of National Income for the year 2022-23 were released on 28th February, 2023. These estimates have now been revised incorporating latest information on relevant indicators in the financial year.

7. The sector-wise estimates have been compiled using indicators like (i) Index of Industrial Production (IIP), (ii) financial performance of Listed Companies in the Private Corporate sector based on available quarterly financial results for these companies, (iii) Third Advance Estimates of Crop Production for 2022-23, (iv) Production of Major Livestock Products, (v) Fish Production, (vi) Production/ Consumption of Cement and Steel, (vii) Net Tonne Kilometres and Passenger Kilometres for Railways, (viii) Passenger and Cargo traffic handled by Civil Aviation, (ix) Cargo traffic handled at Major Sea Ports, (x) Sales of Commercial Vehicles, (xi) Bank Deposits & Credits, (xii) Accounts of Central & State Governments, etc., available for the financial year 2022-23. Percentage changes in the main indicators used in the estimation are given in the Annexure.

8. Total tax revenue used for GDP compilation includes non-GST revenue as well as GST revenue. Latest available information on the websites of Controller General of Accounts (CGA) and Comptroller and Auditor General of India (CAG) have been used for estimating taxes on products at Current Prices. For compiling taxes on products at constant prices, volume extrapolation is done using volume growth of taxed goods and services. The total product subsidies were compiled using the latest information on major subsidies viz. Food, Urea, Petroleum and Nutrient based subsidy as available on CGA website and the expenditure incurred on subsidies by most States up to March, 2023 as available on CAG website along with the state-wise BE provision for 2022-23. Information available on Revenue expenditure, Interest payments, Subsidies etc. based on detailed analysis of budget documents of Centre and States for 2022-23 were also put to use for estimating Government Final Consumption Expenditure (GFCE).

9. Improved data coverage and revision in input data made by source agencies would have a bearing on subsequent revisions of these estimates. Estimates are, therefore, likely to undergo revisions for the aforesaid causes in due course, as per the release calendar. Users should take these into consideration while interpreting the figures.

10. The next release of quarterly GDP estimates for the quarter April-June of 2023-24 (Q1 2023-24) will be on 31.08.2023.