Nigerian and South Korean Ladies in Top of War Final Over WTO DG Post

· Countries Trade Spoils to Reward Support

The list of candidates to lead the World Trade Organization narrowed to two this week: Nigeria’s Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala and South Korea’s Yoo Myung-hee.

Both are eminently qualified and experienced government officials offering a new vision for fixing an organization that’s slipped into a deep cycle of dysfunction.

So as the WTO enters the final lap of the race, it’s worth taking a look at the strategies and tactics that candidates have deployed to win from this stage onward.

A key factor to understand is that all WTO decisions are made on the basis of consensus. This means the victor should, theoretically, have the complete backing of all 164 members.

A successful candidate must therefore earn support from all regions and all levels of prosperity. The big economies like Japan and the U.S. are critical, but candidates must also have support from developing powers like India, Brazil and China as well as poor countries like Ethiopia and Somalia.

Convincing such a disparate group to agree on just about anything in the current environment of multilateral mistrust will be a herculean task, to say the least.

Secrecy, Favors

Of course, there are incentives that candidates can use to win the support of reluctant nations, such as promising appointments to a prestigious WTO job, like the deputy director-general post.

While the U.S., Europe and China are keen to retain their current deputy slots, India and other members are willing to give their support for the candidate that delivers them a first-floor office at the Centre William Rappard on the banks of Lake Geneva.

WTO candidates can also pledge their nation’s backing for leadership races at other international organizations such as the Paris-based Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development. Such diplomatic slots are highly valued prizes for nations looking to increase their international standing or to reward politically connected constituents.

There are other, murkier, methods for obtaining support. In the past, nations with candidates in the race have quietly agreed to forgive debts, promise investments or grant access to national resources. Some have likened the WTO’s opaque and complex selection process to a mix of the papal election and the Eurovision song contest.