Oct Exports Fall
by 1.11 percent, Imports Decline Showing Slow Down in Economy
·
FIEO
Complains of Hold up in MEIS Disbursal Drawback too affected as Liquidity Dries
up in Government System
·
FIEO
Calls for Action on MEIS and Drawback and GST Refund
Petroleum products, Leather,
Garments Dip; Electronics, Engineering, Chemicals Rise
Exports of goods declined for the third
month in a row in October 2019 to $26.38 billion posting a 1.11 per cent fall
year-on-year (YoY) with sectors such as petroleum products, leather, readymade
garments, carpets and a wide range of farm products taking a hit.
The fall in imports in October 2019 was
at a steeper 16.31 per cent to $ 37.39 billion which narrowed the country’s
trade deficit to $ 11.01 billion compared to $18 billion in October 2018.
Mr Saraf said that domestic issues including
uncertainty over MEIS Scheme is a major cause of concern as exporters claim for
over three and half months are pending, which has wiped out their liquidity and
kept them in doldrums with regard to finalising new contracts.
The problem of risky exporters have also compounded the liquidity problem as their
GST and Drawback claims have been held up. Further WTO complaint scheme of newly
launched RoDTEP should be notified with the rates for
the products with lead time of 3 months so that exporters may factor the same in
finalising new orders and make transition to new scheme
smooth.
Only 12
out of the 30 major product groups were in positive territory during October 2019
including electronic goods, drugs & pharmaceuticals, Gems & Jewellery, Engineering Goods, Marine Products, Organic &
Inorganic Chemicals, Iron Ore, Handicrafts Excl. handicrafts carpets, Jute Mfg including Floor Carpet and few plantation sectors which
showed some growth. However few of the export sectors have started showing some
positive trend during the month. All other major sector of exports including some
labour-intensive sector of exports were still in negative
territory. Further imports of USD 37.39 billion with a growth of -16.31 percent
during the month has once again come as a big respite for the economy.
“The World Trade Organisation-complaint
scheme, Remission of Duties or Taxes on Export Products, should be notified
with the rates for the products with lead time of three months so that
exporters may factor the same in finalising new
orders and make transition to new scheme smooth,” the release stated.
In October 2019, petroleum imports declined
31.7 per cent to $ 9.6 billion while gold import increased 4.74 per cent to $
1.83 billion.
India’s Foreign Trade: October 2019
[MoC&I Press Release dated 15.11.2019]
India’s overall exports (Merchandise and Services combined)
in April-October2019-20* are estimated to be USD 310.23 billion, exhibiting a
positive growth of 1.51per cent over the same period last year. Overall imports
in April-October 2019-20* are estimated to be USD 359.68 billion, exhibiting a
negative growth of 4.61per cent over the same period last year.
*Note: Services data pertains to April-September 2019-20 as
September 2019 is the latest data available as per RBI’s Press Release dated 15thNovember
2019. It is arrived at by adding quarterly data of RBI for Q1 of 2019-20 with
Month-wise QE data of RBI’s press release for July, August and September
2019-20. This data is provisional and subject to revision by RBI. In addition,
it may be noted that data for October 2019 is estimated and added to the
April-September 2019-20 data of RBI to calculate the Overall Trade Deficit for
April-October 2019-20. It will be revised based on RBI’s next press release for
October 2019.
I.
MERCHANDISE TRADE
Exports
(including re-exports)
Exports in October 2019 were USD26.38 billion, as compared
to USD26.67billion in October 2018, exhibiting a negative growth of 1.11 per
cent. In Rupee terms, exports were Rs. 1,87,382.29crore in October 2019, as compared to Rs. 1,96,406.43crore in October 2018, registering a
negative growth of 4.59per cent.
In October 2019, major commodity groups of export showing
positive growth over the corresponding month of last year are
Cumulative value of exports for the period April-October
2019-20 was USD185.95 billion (Rs.13,04,149.06crore) as against USD190.15billion
(Rs.13,17,881.40crore) during the period April-October 2018-19, registering a
negative growth of 2.21per cent in Dollar terms (negative growth of 1.04per
cent in Rupee terms).
Non-petroleum and Non Gems and Jewellery
exports in October 2019 were USD19.04billion, as compared to USD18.93billion in
October 2018, exhibiting a positive growth of 0.59per cent. Non-petroleum and
Non Gems and Jewellery exports in April-October
2019-20 were USD137.45billion, as compared to USD137.93billion for the corresponding
period in 2018-19, a decrease of 0.35per cent.
Imports
Imports in October 2019 were USD37.39billion (Rs.2,65,628.46crore), which was 16.31per cent lower in Dollar
terms and 19.26per cent lower in Rupee terms over imports of USD44.68billion
(Rs.3,28,973.56 crore) in October 2018. Cumulative value of imports for the
period April-October 2019-20 was USD280.67billion (Rs.19,67,625.73crore), as
against USD306.31billion (Rs.21,23,857.76crore) during the period April-October
2018-19, registering a negative growth of 8.37per cent in Dollar terms
(negative growth of 7.36per cent in Rupee terms).
Major commodity groups of import showing negative growth in
October 2019 over the corresponding month of last year are:
Crude
Oil and Non-Oil Imports
Oil imports in October 2019 were USD9.63billion (Rs. 68,400.14crore), which was 31.74percentlower in Dollar
terms (34.15percent lower in Rupee terms), compared to USD14.11billion (Rs. 1,03,864.85crore) in
October2018. Oil imports in April-October 2019-20 were USD73.93billion (Rs. 5,18,270.66crore) which was 12.16per cent lower in
Dollar terms (11.31percent lower in Rupee terms) compared to USD84.17billion (Rs. 5,84,362.56crore), over the same period last year.
In this connection it is mentioned that the global Brent
price ($/bbl) has decreased by 26.22% in October 2019
vis-à-vis October 2018 as per data available from World Bank.
Non-oil imports in October 2019 were estimated at
USD27.76billion (Rs. 1,97,228.32crore) which was
9.19per cent lower in Dollar terms (12.39percent lower in Rupee terms),
compared to USD30.57billion (Rs. 2,25,108.71crore) in
October 2018. Non-oil imports in April-October 2019-20 were USD206.74billion (Rs. 14,49,355.07 crore) which was
6.93per cent lower in Dollar terms (5.86percent lower in Rupee terms), compared
to USD222.14billion (Rs. 15,39,495.20crore) in
April-October2018-19.
Non-Oil and Non-Gold imports wereUSD25.92billion in October
2019, recording a negative growth of 10.04per cent, as compared to Non-Oil and
Non-Gold imports of USD 28.82billion in October 2018. Non-Oil and Non-Gold
imports wereUSD189.10billion in April-October 2019-20, recording a negative
growth of 6.73per cent, as compared to Non-Oil and Non-Gold imports USD
202.74billion in April-October 2018-19.
II. TRADE IN SERVICES
Exports (Receipts)
As per the latest press release by RBI dated 15thNovember
2019, exports in September2019 were USD 17.54 billion (Rs.
1,25,090.78 crore) registering a positive growth of
7.05 per cent in dollar terms, vis-à-vis September2018. The estimated value of
services export for October 2019* is USD 17.22 billion.
Imports (Payments)
As per the latest press release by RBI dated 15thNovember
2019, imports in September 2019 were USD 11.10 billion (Rs.
79,151.87 crore) registering a positive growth of 11.56 per cent in dollar
terms, vis-à-vis September 2018. The estimated value of service Import for
October 2019* is USD 10.92 billion.
III.TRADE
BALANCE
Merchandise: The trade deficit for October 2019
was estimated at USD11.01billion as against the deficit of USD18.00billion in
October 2018.
Services: As per RBI’s Press Release dated 15thNovember
2019, the trade balance in Services (i.e. Net Services export) for September,
2019 is estimated at USD6.44billion.
Overall Trade Balance: Taking merchandise
and services together, overall trade deficit for April-October 2019-20* is
estimated at USD49.45 billion as compared to USD71.45 billion in April-October
2018-19.
*Note: Services data pertains to April-September 2019-20 as
September 2019 is the latest data available as per RBI’s Press Release dated 15th
November 2019. It is arrived at by adding quarterly data of RBI for Q1 of
2019-20 with Month-wise QE data of RBI’s press release for July, August and
September 2019-20. This data is provisional and subject to revision by RBI. In
addition, it may be noted that data for October 2019 is estimated and added to
the April-September 2019-20 data of RBI to calculate the Overall Trade Deficit
for April-October 2019-20. It will be revised based on RBI’s next press release
for October 2019.
MERCHANDISE
TRADE
Exports
& Imports: (US $ Billion)
(Provisional)
|
|
October |
April-October |
|
Exports
(including re-exports) |
|
|
|
2018-19 |
26.67 |
190.15 |
|
2019-20 |
26.38 |
185.95 |
|
%Growth
2019-20/ 2018-19 |
-1.11 |
-2.21 |
|
Imports |
|
|
|
2018-19 |
44.68 |
306.31 |
|
2019-20 |
37.39 |
280.67 |
|
%Growth
2019-20/ 2018-19 |
-16.31 |
-8.37 |
|
Trade
Balance |
|
|
|
2018-19 |
-18.00 |
-116.15 |
|
2019-20 |
-11.01 |
-94.72 |
SERVICES
TRADE
Exports
& Imports (Services) : (US $ Billion)
(Provisional)
|
|
September
2019 |
April-September
2019-20 |
|
Exports
(Receipts) |
17.54 |
107.06 |
|
Imports
(Payments) |
11.10 |
68.10 |
|
Trade
Balance |
6.44 |
38.96 |
Exports
& Imports (Services): (Rs. Crore)
(Provisional)
|
|
September
2019 |
April-September
2019-20 |
|
Exports
(Receipts) |
1,25,090.78 |
7,49,213.20 |
|
Imports
(Payments) |
79,151.87 |
4,76,546.62 |
|
Trade
Balance |
45,938.90 |
2,72,666.58 |
Source: RBI Press Release dated 15thNovember
2019
Note: Services data pertains to April-September 2019-20 as
September 2019 is the latest data available as per RBI’s Press Release dated 15thNovember
2019. It is arrived at by adding quarterly data of RBI for Q1 of 2019-20 with
Month-wise QE data of RBI’s press release for July, August and September 2019.
This has been used along with the estimate of service exports and imports for
August 2019, as explained in page-1 for the purpose of this Press note