Oil Holds Above Prewar Levels as Hormuz Shipping Slumps Despite Ceasefire

· Oil prices remained volatile on Friday, fluctuating around $76 per barrel for Brent crude, as tensions in the Persian Gulf continued despite a pause in U.S.-Iran retaliatory strikes.

· Strait of Hormuz shipping traffic remained severely disrupted, delaying a recovery in one of the world's most important oil transit routes after attacks on three commercial vessels.

· Iran insists vessels require its permission to transit the Strait of Hormuz, while the United States maintains the waterway should remain open to free navigation.

· Brent crude began the week near $72 per barrel, rose above prewar levels, but remained well below the conflict peak of nearly $120 per barrel.

· The International Energy Agency (IEA) projects global oil demand will decline by 1 million barrels per day in 2026, marking the first annual decline since 2020.

· Shipping activity through the Strait of Hormuz fell sharply:

o Only 22 ships transited on Thursday, according to Kpler.

o Down from 49 ships on Tuesday when the latest attacks began.

o Before the conflict, the Strait handled more than 130 ships daily on average.

· Global equity markets remained resilient:

o Stock markets in Hong Kong, Japan and South Korea gained more than 1%.

o The S&P 500 rose about 0.4%, recording its second consecutive weekly gain.

· Bond markets reflected lingering caution:

o The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield eased slightly to just above 4.5%, but stayed above the week's opening level.

o Investors remain concerned that higher oil prices could fuel inflation and keep Federal Reserve interest rates elevated.

· U.S. gasoline prices continued to rise:

o The national average reached $3.88 per gallon, up 3 cents on Friday, according to AAA.

o Prices remain about 30% higher than before the conflict.

· Goldman Sachs said gasoline prices are likely to remain "persistently pricey" because:

o Refineries are operating near full capacity.

o Fuel inventories remain low.

o Rising energy costs tend to push consumer prices up more strongly than falling energy prices reduce them.

Key Takeaway:

Although direct military exchanges have paused, continued disruptions to shipping in the Strait of Hormuz are keeping oil and fuel prices elevated, while markets remain alert to inflation risks and the potential economic impact of prolonged geopolitical tensions.

[ABS News Service/11.07.2026]

Oil prices flitted between modest gains and losses on Friday, a spell of relative calm at the end of a turbulent week in which rounds of military strikes around the Persian Gulf threatened to shatter a fragile truce between the United States and Iran.

The burst of back-and-forth retaliations, which appeared to pause on Friday, has derailed a recovery in shipping traffic in the Strait of Hormuz, with the fewest ships in weeks braving the passage. Iran asserts that ships must obtain its permission to navigate the waterway, which normally carries a fifth of the world’s oil, while the United States insists that vessels should be able to pass freely. The latest turmoil, sparked by attacks on three commercial ships in the strait on Tuesday, pushed the price of crude back above prewar levels.

Oil fluctuates as fewer ships pass through the Strait of Hormuz.

· Brent crude, the international oil benchmark, hovered around $76 per barrel on Friday. It started the week at about $72 a barrel, near its prewar price. Although the cost of crude is now about 5 percent higher than the start of the war, it is down from a peak of nearly $120 a barrel during the worst of the fighting.

· World oil demand is projected to decline this year for the first time since 2020, the International Energy Agency said in its monthly report on Friday, with a decline of 1 million barrels a day in 2026 compared with the previous year.

· Just 22 ships passed through the Strait of Hormuz on Thursday, according to Kpler, a maritime data company, down from 49 on Tuesday, the day the latest strikes began. Thursday’s traffic was the lowest since June 17, when a preliminary cease-fire was agreed between the United States and Iran. Before the war, more than 130 ships navigated the strait on an average day.

Stocks post gains but bonds show signs of anxiety.

· Stocks jumped in Asia, with markets in Hong Kong, Japan and South Korea all rising more than 1 percent. Trading in Europe was more subdued.

· The S&P 500 closed slightly higher, up around 0.4 percent, in a break from the volatility of recent sessions. The U.S. market benchmark, influenced as heavily by enthusiasm for the build-out of artificial intelligence systems as geopolitical turmoil in the Middle East, was on track for its second consecutive weekly gain.

· U.S. government bond yields fell slightly, to just over 4.5 percent for the 10-year Treasury, but remain above where they were at the start of the week. That reflects some nervousness among investors that the jump in oil prices could stoke inflation and prompt the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates elevated, if not raise them at some point this year.

Gasoline prices remain ‘persistently pricey.’

· The U.S. national average price of gasoline, which tends to follow moves in crude prices with a delay, jumped 3 cents on Friday to $3.88 a gallon, according to the AAA motor club. That was 30 percent higher than it was before the war.

· The price drivers face at the pump has been “persistently pricey,” analysts at Goldman Sachs noted in a recent report, with a measure of the gap between global retail fuel prices and the cost of Brent crude reaching a record high. Gasoline prices are expected to remain high, the analysts said, in part because many refineries are already running at high capacities and with low inventories. Also, put simply, “rising energy prices push consumer prices up more than falling energy prices pull them down,” the analysts noted.