Slower Foreign Investment Growth Expected in 2012: UNCTAD Reports

Global flows of foreign direct investment (FDI) have surpassed their average 2005-2007 pre-crisis levels, according to a new report released last week by the UN Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD). While global FDI growth is expected to slow this year, the agency said, projected flows for 2013 and 2014 are set to increase at a “moderate but steady pace.”

The 5 July report found that global FDI flows reached US$1.5 trillion in 2011; despite surpassing their three-year pre-crisis average, however, this number remains about 20 percent below the 2007 peak. Flows this year are expected to level off at US1.6 trillion, the UN agency found

Foreign investment inflows increased across all major economic regions, with developed countries reaching US$748 billion in inflows in 2011 - a notable turnaround after these numbers took a nose dive in 2009. Developed country numbers, however, still remain below the pre-crisis average, with growth expected to slow in light of the ongoing eurozone crisis and tenous nature of the economic recovery in some major economies.

Developing economies, for their part, continue to account for nearly half of global foreign direct investment.

Meanwhile, the world’s poorest countries are continuing to face an FDI recession, according to the UN trade agency. Total group inflows into least developed countries hit their lowest levels in five years, at US$15 billion.

Notably, FDI prospects for transition economies were helped by Russia’s impending WTO accession, which is expected to be finalised by the end of this summer after its country’s State Duma - the lower chamber of the Russian Parliament - voted in favour of the negotiated accession protocol on 10 July.

The agreed terms upon which Moscow is joining the global trade body include commitments to reduce restrictions on services industries in various services industries. The UNCTAD report notes that Russia’s accession could also increase foreign investors’ confidence and improve the country’s business climate, arguments that were made in favour of Moscow joining the WTO during the negotiation process.

Sustainable development, regionalism

The report also highlights the rise of a “new generation” of international investment agreements that include the advancement of sustainable development as an objective, while acknowledging the difficulties of implementing sustainable development provisions in international investment agreements, and of managing the “systemic complexity” of the global investment regime.

The report calls on countries to design policies aimed at enhancing the impact of foreign investment on sustainable development and inclusive growth.

Regionalism also appears to be a growing trend in international investment agreements, which the UN trade agency notes could be the result of a gradual shift toward making policy at the regional level, as well as the controversial nature of such arrangements. High-profile examples include the ongoing talks for the proposed Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) Agreement - and the recent trilateral investment agreement between China, Japan, and South Korea.

Most regional treaties are free trade agreements, UNCTAD noted. “By addressing comprehensively the trade and investment elements of international economic activities, such broader agreements often respond better to today’s economic realities, in which international trade and investment are increasingly connected,” the report said.