World Trade Moves Up by 15 points after Covid Crash
Goods Barometer Signals Trade Resilience Amid Ongoing COVID Concerns
World merchandise trade appears to have rebounded strongly after
plummeting in the midst of the COVID-19 pandemic, but whether growth can be sustained
going forward is unclear, according to the WTO’s latest Goods Trade Barometer released
on 20 November. A sharp rise in the barometer index was driven by a surge in export
orders, but mixed readings in other components and the resurgence of COVID-19 could
weigh on trade in the coming months.
The Goods
Trade Barometer’s current reading of 100.7 marks a dramatic improvement from the
84.5 recorded last August, which reflected collapsing trade and output in the second
quarter as lockdowns and travel restrictions were employed to fight the virus. The
latest reading indicates a strong rebound in trade in the third quarter as lockdowns
were eased, but growth is likely to slow in the fourth
quarter as pent-up demand is exhausted and inventory restocking is completed.