1500 Ships Stranded in Hormuz
An agreement to reopen the waterway
would be followed by a complicated process of navigating a backlog of vessels
stranded for nearly three months.
·
Around 1,500 ships have been stranded in the
Persian Gulf during the closure of the strait.
·
Before the conflict, the Strait of Hormuz handled
nearly one-fifth of the world’s oil and gas trade.
·
Even after reopening, shipping operations are
unlikely to return immediately to prewar levels of over 130 ships per day.
·
Experts believe it may take weeks or months for
full normalization of maritime traffic and energy supplies.
Key Challenges Before Reopening
1. Ship Movement Coordination
·
Shipping companies need clarity on:
o
Which vessels will move first
o
Navigation routes
o
Required permits and approvals
o
Coordination with authorities
·
Maritime experts suggested speed restrictions to
reduce the risk of collisions and groundings in the narrow waterway.
2. Threat of Sea Mines
·
Iran is believed to have deployed sea mines in the
strait.
·
British officials warned that some mines can damage
ship hulls by releasing gas bubbles from the seabed.
·
Navies from the United States, Britain, France and
Germany may require several weeks to deploy minesweepers.
·
The mine threat is expected to keep maritime
insurance premiums elevated.
3. Operational Condition of Stranded Ships
·
Many ships have been maintained only by skeleton
crews during the shutdown.
·
Vessels drifting in warm Gulf waters accumulated:
o
Barnacles
o
Algae
o
Marine organisms
·
These conditions reduce vessel efficiency and
navigation performance.
·
Shipping company Hapag-Lloyd reported that one ship
exiting the Gulf experienced a significant reduction in maximum speed due to
fouling.
4. Gradual Recovery in Shipping Activity
·
Wallenius Wilhelmsen estimated that normalization
could take 30–45 days even under favorable
conditions.
·
Maritime analytics firm Kpler
projected traffic recovery at only 40–50% of normal levels over the first three
to four weeks.
·
Analysts expect reopening to involve:
o
Escorted transit systems
o
Restricted navigation routes
o
Longer waiting times
o
Higher war-risk insurance costs
5. Continued Regional Security Concerns
·
Shipping companies remain cautious due to the
threat of renewed regional conflict.
·
Iran-backed Houthi militants previously attacked
ships in the Red Sea and targeted Israel with drones and missiles.
·
Although Red Sea attacks have declined, many
shipping companies still avoid the route because of lingering security
concerns.
Impact on Energy Markets
·
Oil and energy prices are unlikely to decline
rapidly even if the strait reopens because shipping bottlenecks and security
risks will continue.
·
Delays in restoring normal cargo flows could
prolong disruptions in global energy supply chains.
Industry Skepticism
Remains
·
Some shipping executives remain uncertain about
whether a final agreement will actually be implemented.
·
Maritime intelligence firms noted inconsistencies
between U.S. and Iranian statements regarding reopening plans.
·
Shipping companies may wait for sustained
operational stability before fully resuming trade through the Strait of Hormuz.
[ABS News Service/26.05.2026]
When
the Strait of Hormuz finally reopens, shipping companies will need to know
which oil tankers get to start moving first, and whom to ask for the go-ahead.
Vessels will need guidance on routes. And there’s the question of the potential
threat of mines in the strait.
The
United States and Iran are moving closer to securing a deal to reopen the
strait, and captains aboard the roughly 1,500 ships that have been stranded in
the Persian Gulf for nearly three months are getting ready.
But
a lot has to happen before they can start moving through the narrow and vital
waterway, which carried one-fifth of the world’s oil and gas before the war
with Iran.
Even
if a final deal is reached, the prewar status quo, when upward of 130 ships
transited the strait each day, will be perhaps weeks or even months away. That
is also one reason that energy prices, which have climbed in the United States
and around the world, are not expected to fall fast.
Before
ships can begin leaving the strait, which is 21 nautical miles wide at its
narrowest, companies will need to know how their ships will be prioritized,
said Jakob P. Larsen, the chief safety and security officer of the Baltic and
International Maritime Council, which represents maritime companies. Ideally,
he added, vessels would be asked to follow a speed limit to minimize the risk
of colliding or grounding in shallow water.
“We
will need to know which route to take and then, of course, what kind of
coordination or permits or whatever would need to be obtained with which
authorities,” Mr. Larsen said.
The
potential for ships to strike sea mines that Iran is believed to have planted
in the strait is a peril. British military officials have said Iran’s mines
include ones that sit on the seabed and send gas bubbles to the surface,
causing serious damage to a ship’s hull.
Navies
including those of the United States, Britain, France and Germany would need
several weeks to deploy minesweepers, the International Energy Agency said in a
report this month. This risk is likely to keep maritime insurance rates high.
Iran
has threatened to exercise control of the strait and recently established a
regulatory agency to run operations there.
Ships
that have been maintained by skeleton crews of seafarers — about 20,000 in all
— have to be restarted.
Drifting
in the warm waters of the Persian Gulf, vessels have accumulated barnacles, sea
creatures and algae that can impede navigation.
Hapag-Lloyd,
the fifth-largest container shipping group in the world, has been able to get
one vessel out since the lockdown began. That ship required a lot of cleaning,
Rolf Habben Jansen, the chief executive, said recently on a company podcast.
“We
also noticed that once we got her out that the maximum speed she could still
achieve was significantly less than normal,” he said.
Lasse
Kristoffersen, the chief executive of Wallenius Wilhelmsen, a car shipping and
logistics giant with one vessel stranded in the Persian Gulf, said it would
take at least 30 to 45 days until shipping in the region returned to normal —
if everything went as planned.
The
situation would stabilize only when shipping companies felt comfortable moving
their stranded ships out of the Persian Gulf and also sending them into the
region to load cargo.
Companies
will need to determine that their ships will be safe from further conflict. The
Houthis, an Iranian-backed militant group that controls much of Yemen, began
launching drones and missiles at Israel in 2023, shortly after the onset of the
Gaza war. They also attacked ships in the Red Sea, which leads to the Suez
Canal, another vital maritime corridor.
The
Red Sea is subject to fewer attacks these days, but many shipping companies are
still avoiding it. “The fear of that possibly happening is enough for us not to
trade,” Mr. Kristoffersen said.
Dimitris
Ampatzidis, a risk manager at Kpler, a maritime data
firm, said that even if an orderly procedure for vessels to transit could be
set up, traffic would probably recover to only 40 or 50 percent of normal
levels over three to four weeks.
“The
key question for shipping markets is what comes next: a managed reopening,
escorted transit system, restricted passage, or a genuine return to normal
operations,” he said. He believes the most likely outcome is that vessels will
be able to move through the strait but with constraints. They will have limited
routes, higher costs to be insured against the risk of war and longer waiting
times, he said.
For
now, some in the shipping industry are skeptical
about the prospects of a deal to reopen the strait.
“It
remains to be seen when it’s actually going to get signed and done and dusted,”
said Ami Daniel, the chief executive of Windward, a maritime intelligence firm,
noting the differences between what U.S. officials and Iranian officials are
saying. And companies may be wary if President Trump declares that the strait
has opened, he said, saying that had happened twice before.