Can South Korea Caught between Competing Needs of the U.S. and China
The country’s new president rolled out the
red carpet for China’s leader, Xi Jinping, and President Trump this week, but the
superpower rivalry is making it harder to balance relations.
South Korea Walks a Tightrope as Trump and Xi Visit: Can Seoul Balance
U.S. Security Ties and Chinese Economic Links?
South
Korea’s new president, Lee Jae Myung, faced a delicate balancing act
this week as he welcomed both U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese
President Xi Jinping to the APEC Summit in Gyeongju. While Mr. Lee
pledged to deepen economic cooperation with Beijing, his concurrent embrace of
new U.S. defense and trade deals signaled
a shift toward Washington — a move that could strain Seoul’s ties with China.
President
Trump surprised even South Korean officials by announcing that Washington would
allow South Korea to build nuclear-powered submarines, further
integrating Seoul into the U.S. security framework. The two leaders also struck
a trade deal lowering U.S. tariffs on Korean goods to 15% in
exchange for a $350 billion South Korean investment in the U.S.
Mr. Xi,
meanwhile, urged South Korea to reject American-led efforts to curb trade with
China and to “uphold the multilateral trading system.” Despite warm gestures
from both sides, analysts warned that Seoul’s long-standing strategy of
balancing between its security dependence on the U.S. and economic
interdependence with China is becoming untenable.
As
tensions between Washington and Beijing continue to shape regional dynamics,
experts like Seong-Hyon Lee and Leif-Eric Easley say South
Korea’s latest moves mark a structural tilt toward the U.S., even as Seoul
still needs Beijing’s cooperation on North Korea and regional stability.
China’s
leader, Xi Jinping, on Saturday called on South Korea to deepen cooperation with
Beijing as he met with the country’s president, Lee Jae Myung, during his first
visit to the country in 11 years.
But
South Korea, like other Asian nations that have strong ties to China and the United
States, has found it increasingly difficult to balance relations between them as
the rivalry between Washington and Beijing has intensified.
Mr.
Lee took office in June, vowing to improve ties with China. Mr. Xi’s visit this
week to attend the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation meeting in the city of Gyeongju
was originally envisioned as a chance to do so through more economic collaboration.
But
those efforts were complicated by South Korea’s attempts to also strengthen its
longstanding alliance with the United States under President Trump, who also attended
the APEC summit and held talks with Mr. Lee on Wednesday.
This
week, Mr. Trump created a new potential flashpoint by announcing that the United
States would allow South Korea to build nuclear-powered submarines, a move that
will further integrate the country into Washington’s security architecture. The
South Korean leader had lobbied for Mr. Trump’s backing, saying the submarines would
help the country’s navy to patrol waters near China and North Korea and lessen “the
burden” on the U.S. military. But the president’s sudden announcement caught even
South Korean officials by surprise.
On
Saturday, Mr. Xi said China and South Korea were inseparable partners and were prepared
to deepen ties. But he also urged South Korea to reject American-led efforts to
suppress trade with Beijing and “uphold the multilateral trading system.”
Mr.
Lee emphasized the importance of trade ties with China, which he said had helped
South Korea become a global economic powerhouse.
Despite
the encouraging words, however, the APEC summit this week showed how tricky it will
be for South Korea to manage the competing needs.
“South
Korea has long balanced its security dependence on the United States with its economic
interdependence with China,” said Seong-Hyon Lee, a senior fellow at the George
H. W. Bush Foundation for U.S.–China Relations. “That equilibrium has effectively
ended.”
The
submarine deal, if followed through, “marks Seoul’s transition from a balancing
actor to a fully embedded partner within the U.S. framework,” he added.
Yet
even as the United States has urged South Korea to join U.S.-led efforts to contain
China, Seoul has also sought Beijing’s help to manage tensions with North Korea.
Mr. Lee said this week that Beijing, an ally of Pyongyang, would have “a big role”
in building peace on the Korean Peninsula.
“Stability
on the Korean Peninsula and in Northeast Asia benefits China too,” Mr. Lee said
during a news conference Saturday at the end of the APEC summit.
The
deep divide between the United States and China cast a shadow over the summit despite
Mr. Trump and Mr. Xi agreeing to a trade truce this week.
On
Wednesday, Mr. Trump extolled his “America First” agenda and use of tariffs as part
of his foreign policy in a speech to business leaders in Gyeongju.
Two
days later, at the APEC leaders’ summit, Mr. Xi warned nations against joining the
United States in reducing the world’s reliance on Chinese supply chains.
Mr.
Lee said that APEC member states haggled until the last minute over the joint statement
at the end of the summit, reflecting how difficult it has become to find common
ground.
“In
the current environment of norm-violating tariffs, export controls, and industrial
policies, it is difficult to build consensus on international institutional reform
and free trade efforts,” said Leif-Eric Easley, a professor of international studies
at Ewha Womans University in Seoul.
Mr.
Lee rolled out a red carpet for both leaders this week in an attempt to find common
ground with each of them.
He
promised Mr. Trump that South Korea would increase military spending, something
the president has encouraged to help counter China. Their meeting ended in a high
note for Mr. Lee, resulting in a trade deal and the agreement on nuclear-powered
submarines that Mr. Trump said on social media would be built in Philadelphia.
South
Korea has also agreed to invest $350 billion in the United States, including in
its shipbuilding industry, in exchange for the Trump administration agreeing to
lower tariffs on its goods to 15 percent from the 25 percent levy it imposed in
August.
South
Korea gave a similarly warm reception to Mr. Xi. A traditional Korean honor guard escorted the car transporting the Chinese leader
as it pulled into the Gyeongju National Museum, the venue for the summit.
The
efforts to improve ties follow a decade of difficult relations.
In
2014, Mr. Xi visited South Korea, five years before making his first trip to North
Korea. Until then, a new Chinese leader had always visited the North first. The
then South Korean leader, Park Geun-hye, reciprocated the following year by standing
next to Mr. Xi as they watched a military parade in Beijing to mark the 70th anniversary
of the end of World War II.
But
when China held a similar military parade in September to mark the 80th anniversary
of the war’s end, the South Korean leader’s spot was taken by Kim Jong-un, North
Korea’s leader — a sign of how relations between Seoul and Beijing have soured over
the last decade after South Korea decided to let the United States deploy an antimissile
system on its soil.
Since
Mr. Trump was re-elected, South Korea has taken steps to ameliorate the president’s
threats in ways that could upset Beijing again.
The
submarine agreement, coupled with South Korea’s massive investment pledge in the
U.S., “signals a deep, structural integration of South Korea into America’s security
and industrial ecosystem,” said Mr. Lee of the George H. W. Bush Foundation.
China
has already expressed its discomfort. On Friday, Guo Jiakun, a spokesman for China’s
foreign ministry, said South Korea and the United States should “do what is conducive
to regional peace and stability, not otherwise.”