China’s $60 bn Trade Surplus with Africa Nears Record as U.S.
Pulls Back
Already this year, China’s trade surplus
with Africa is nearly as big as all of 2024, a sign of how President Trump’s
tariffs are reshaping the flow of goods.
China
has amassed a $60 billion
trade surplus with Africa in 2025 (through August), nearly
matching last year’s total. Exports surged to $141 billion, while imports stood at $81 billion, driven by
demand for batteries,
solar panels, EVs, and industrial machinery.
As
U.S. tariffs under Trump
slash Chinese exports to America (down 33% in August), Chinese
manufacturers are finding new markets in Africa, Southeast Asia, and Latin
America. Exports to Africa rose 26%
in August, underscoring Beijing’s growing economic footprint.
China’s
solar industry is central
to this shift. With prices plunging due to oversupply, African
nations are importing record volumes—solar panel shipments to Africa jumped 60% in a year, fueling rapid growth in affordable clean energy access. In
Uganda alone, more than eight
Chinese solar companies now have distribution hubs in Kampala,
pushing prices down by 40%.
Beyond
clean energy, Chinese
exports of steel (+30%), construction machinery (+40%), generators (+50%), and
automobiles (+67%) are flooding African markets. China also
dominates consumer tech, with Huawei and Xiaomi among Africa’s top smartphone
brands.
Meanwhile,
the U.S. has cut aid to
Africa and imposed tariffs on African exports, including South
Africa and Lesotho. By contrast, Beijing waived most tariffs for 53 African countries in
June, pitching itself as a reliable partner.
African
leaders remain wary of a lopsided
relationship, with Beijing gaining resources while undercutting
local industries. Yet, as one analyst noted: “China is
really the only game in town.”
China
has racked up a $60 billion trade surplus with Africa so far in 2025, nearly
surpassing last year’s total, as Chinese companies redirect trade to the region
while President Trump’s tariffs crimp the flow of goods into the United States.
Through
August, China exported $141 billion worth of goods and services to Africa,
while importing $81 billion, according to data released by the Chinese
government on Monday. The widening trade imbalance with Africa stems from
surging exports of Chinese-made batteries, solar panels, electric vehicles and
industrial equipment.
The
swell in exports to Africa, along with record volumes of goods sold to
Southeast Asia and Latin America, underscores the resilience of Chinese
manufacturers in finding new markets for the products their factories continue
to churn out in enormous quantities.
China
has long been the biggest trading partner for the region. But the flow of
Chinese-made goods has never been more important as the trade war with the
United States rages on and the growth of China’s domestic economy slows. In
August, China’s exports to the United States plunged 33 percent while those to
Africa grew 26 percent.
Solar
panels in Kampala. The panels fill storefronts in the city, reflecting growing
demand for affordable energy solutions.Credit...Stuart
Tibaweswa for The New York Times
In
a bustling neighborhood full of electronics shops,
most of the solar panels crowding the interior of nearly every storefront had
one thing in common. They were made in China.
One
shop owner, Mwiine Joseph, said Chinese solar panels
had edged out rival offerings from Europe and India over the last decade. He
estimated that nearly 99 percent of the solar brands on offer were made in
China. At the end of the day, the products from China could not be beaten on
price.
“I
only look for cheap solar to sell if I am to compete with others in the
market,” said Mr. Mwiine, 38. “This is what the
Chinese are giving us.”
It
was not just the solar panels. Nearly everything in the small and crowded
electronics shop, from lightbulbs to generators, was also made in China.
For
more than a decade, China has invested heavily in building infrastructure
throughout the continent as part of its Belt and Road Initiative. The projects
have deepened Beijing’s influence across Africa, creating business
opportunities for Chinese companies and providing access to valuable raw
materials.
This
year, the Trump administration has gutted foreign aid to Africa, leaving a host
of health and development initiatives in limbo. It also targeted many African
countries with tariffs, including a 30 percent duty on goods from South Africa.
Mr.
Trump initially threatened a 50 percent tariff on imports from Lesotho, forcing
the textile-dependent country to declare a national state of disaster. The rate
was reduced to 15 percent, which is still expected to hurt Lesotho. It was
among nearly two dozen African countries that had sent certain products to the
United States without any import taxes under a law passed by Congress in 2000.
As
the United States pulls back from Africa, China is presenting itself as an
economic counterbalance. In June, Beijing said it would waive nearly all
tariffs for 53 African countries. China was sending a message: It was committed
to nurturing a fruitful, mutually beneficial relationship with Africa.
Xinhua,
China’s main state-run news agency, claimed in an editorial in January that
China had created more than one million jobs in Africa in the last three years,
while helping the region build roads, railways, bridges and ports over the
previous quarter-century.
What
Beijing portrays as a marriage of convenience is most apparent in the solar
energy sector. Although China dominates all aspects of the industry, Chinese
solar companies are struggling to survive, plagued by cutthroat competition and
overproduction that has driven down prices and eroded profitability. However,
plummeting prices have spurred a solar energy boom in Africa, where there is a
desperate need for energy.
As
a result, solar is “taking off” in Africa, according to Ember, an energy
tracking group. Solar panel imports from China rose 60 percent in the last 12
months, and 20 African countries imported a record amount over that period,
Ember said.
In
Uganda, many Chinese solar manufacturers have established distribution offices
in Kampala, allowing retailers to obtain products quickly and avoid the hassle
of importing them from China.
Walter
Cuccu, managing director of W. Water Works, a water and solar energy
installation company, said Chinese solar companies were prevalent in Uganda and
were setting up branches across the continent. He said more than eight Chinese
companies had distribution centers in the city.
He
said the companies were competing aggressively with one another, driving down
prices. He estimated that solar panel prices had fallen 40 percent over the
last 12 months.
Mr.
Cuccu said European competitors were not investing in
the sector in Africa like the Chinese firms.
“They
will discover when it’s too late that the Chinese have already taken over,” he
said.
It’s
not just clean energy. The surge in Chinese exports to meet Africa’s industrial
needs is staggering. In the first five months of the year, steel shipments to
Africa rose nearly 30 percent. Deliveries for Chinese agriculture, construction
and shipbuilding machinery all rose more than 40 percent. In addition, electric
motors and generator exports rose more than 50 percent, according to China’s
most recent customs data.
For
consumer products, the gains are equally eye-opening. Chinese exports of
automobiles rose 67 percent in the first five months of 2025, including a
doubling of shipments in May alone. China already dominates other key sectors:
Four of Africa’s five biggest smartphone brands are Chinese, with Huawei and
Xiaomi tallying the biggest market share gains this year.
For
years, African leaders have expressed concern about what they perceive as a
lopsided relationship with Beijing, with China devouring Africa’s natural
resources while flooding the market with its manufactured goods.
The
deluge of Chinese exports puts African countries in a hard spot, threatening to
undermine their efforts to develop high-value industries of their own. Yet
policymakers feel they must stay in China’s favor,
said David Omojomolo, Africa economist for Capital Economics.
“China
is really the only game in town,” he said.