Soybeans are the notable exception,
revealing Beijing’s selective approach to fulfilling trade commitments ahead of
the summit between President Trump and Xi Jinping.
·
$17
Billion Annual Commitment: After the May 2026
Trump-Xi meeting, the White House said China agreed to purchase at
least $17 billion annually of U.S. agricultural products through 2028, with
a prorated target for 2026.
·
Only
$3.9 Billion Purchased: During January–July
2026, China purchased just $3.9
billion of U.S. agricultural products, excluding
soybeans.
·
Little
Growth: The seven-month figure was only slightly
higher than the same period in 2025, when U.S. agricultural exports to China
were at a six-year low.
·
Soybeans
an Exception: China is broadly on track with its
separate soybean commitment. It has made additional purchases equivalent to
about half of the 25-million-tonne full-year
commitment cited by Washington.
·
Soybean
Prices Rise: Stronger Chinese demand has helped push
U.S. soybean prices to around $13 per bushel, near
a three-year high.
·
Sinograin
Steps Up Orders: China's state-owned grain-reserve company
Sinograin
increased U.S. soybean purchases in August,
unusually late in the normal buying cycle.
·
Commercial
Reason for Soybeans: Tighter Brazilian soybean inventories are
giving China an additional commercial incentive to source more soybeans from
the United States.
·
Sorghum
Purchases Weak: China has bought about 20%
less U.S. sorghum than historical averages,
according to the National Sorghum Producers.
·
Corn
Purchases Collapse: U.S. corn exports to China were only $6.9
million in January–July 2026, compared with $5.2
billion in 2022.
·
Other
Commodities Also Weak: Chinese purchases of wheat,
cotton, beef and pork remain substantially below recent levels.
·
China
Has Not Confirmed $17 Billion:
Beijing has not endorsed the specific $17 billion figure, describing the
agreement instead as “indicative targets” for expanding
two-way agricultural trade.
·
Tariff
Remains: An additional 10%
Chinese tariff on U.S. goods continues to
discourage larger purchases.
·
Weak
Chinese Demand: China's economic weakness is another
factor limiting demand for U.S. agricultural products.
·
Strategic
Approach: Analysts say China appears to be
increasing purchases where commercially or strategically useful—particularly
soybeans—while avoiding broader unilateral concessions that could reduce its
negotiating leverage.
·
Possible
Trump-Xi Flashpoint: The slow implementation of agricultural
commitments could become an issue when Trump
and Xi meet at the upcoming summit.
·
First-Term
Experience: During Trump's first term, Chinese
retaliatory tariffs sharply reduced U.S. agricultural exports, prompting the
U.S. government to provide about $23
billion in assistance to farmers and
accelerating China's shift toward Brazilian soybean supplies.
Bottom line: China's
soybean purchases have strengthened, but purchases of most other U.S.
agricultural products remain far below the level implied by the May 2026 trade
commitment.
[ABS News Service/21.09.2026]
When
President Trump met with the Chinese leader Xi Jinping in Beijing in May, the
United States announced that China had agreed to sharply increase its purchases
of American agricultural products.
The
pledge, one of China’s major commitments after the high-profile meeting,
appeared to offer relief to U.S. farmers battered by the trade war between the
two countries.
Four
months later, there is little sign of a broad Chinese buying spree.
The
White House announced in May that China would buy at least $17 billion a year
of U.S. farm goods through 2028, with the target prorated for 2026. Soybeans
were not included: China had already vowed separately to step up purchases from
American farmers.
Yet
in the first seven months of 2026, China bought only $3.9 billion of U.S.
agricultural products, excluding soybeans, according to the most recent
Agriculture Department data. The amount was only slightly more than during the
same period last year, when sales were at a six-year low as the two countries
imposed tit-for-tat tariffs on each other.
“They’re
not keeping that promise and it hasn’t been talked about,” said Ishan Bhanu,
the lead agricultural commodities analyst at Kpler,
which tracks trade flows.
The
sluggish pace of China’s purchases could become a point of contention when Mr.
Trump and Mr. Xi meet again at a summit this week. During his first term, Mr.
Trump accused Beijing of “letting us down” by reneging on pledges to buy
American agricultural products and called its failure to buy soybeans an
“economically hostile” act.
The
figures reveal a sharp divide in the composition of Beijing’s trade with
American farmers. It is on track to fulfill its
soybean pledge, while demand for other U.S. farm products remains soft.
That
uneven approach reflects China’s dual strategy in dealing with Mr. Trump,
analysts say. Beijing wants to show that it is making a good-faith effort to
improve relations with the president, who is eager to support farmers ahead of
the upcoming midterm elections. But it also does not want to surrender its
leverage or appear to be making unilateral concessions to the United States.
“The
U.S. may have a legitimate view that China is slow-walking the implementation
of their May 14 commitments,” said Han Lin, the China country director for The
Asia Group, a strategic advisory firm based in Washington.
Mr.
Lin said the approach stems from Beijing’s underlying distrust of Mr. Trump,
even as Chinese officials view him as “certainly more manageable” than more
hawkish officials in his administration.
“They
understand a large aspect of getting to substantive discussions with the U.S.
is paying attention to the performative aspects and making sure Trump looks
good,” he said.
China
has never confirmed the $17 billion figure, saying only that it had “set
indicative targets for expanding two-way agricultural trade.”
Kate
Lair, assistant U.S. trade representative for public and media affairs,
referred to a May fact sheet from the White House that said the commitment
would be prorated for this year. China’s commerce ministry and foreign ministry
did not respond to requests for comment.
But
even with the prorated target, Beijing’s current pace of buying means it will
have to accelerate spending significantly over the rest of the year.
For
now, soybeans appear to be the only sector seeing a significant boost.
After
Mr. Trump and Mr. Xi met last October, China bought 12.4 million tons of
soybeans from the United States in 2025, according to Jim Sutter, the chief
executive officer of the U.S. Soybean Export Council. So far this year, China
has made additional purchases amounting to about half of the 25-million-ton,
full-year commitment that Washington said was promised.
The
purchases put the industry “sort of back on track,” Mr. Sutter said.
Soybean
prices are now trading near a three-year high, hovering around $13 a bushel,
driven in part by Chinese demand.
That
is a far cry from Mr. Trump’s first term, when China imposed a 25 percent
tariff on U.S. agricultural exports in retaliation for American tariffs on
Chinese imports. China is the largest foreign buyer of U.S. soybeans and its
purchases plunged.
The
consequences for American farmers were severe. Storage bins filled up, crops
risked rotting and the Trump administration ultimately stepped in with a $23
billion bailout program for farmers. The dispute also accelerated Beijing’s
shift toward purchasing soybeans from Brazil, another major producer.
In
recent weeks, as the meeting between the two leaders drew closer, China has
sped up its purchases.
In
August, Sinograin, the state-owned enterprise that
manages China’s grain reserves, began stepping up its orders of U.S. soybeans,
according to Mr. Bhanu, the Kpler analyst. Usually,
purchases happen earlier in the year, he said, suggesting that Beijing had
initially been uncertain about whether to fulfill its
commitments.
Mr.
Bhanu said that Sinograin’s role was also telling.
“It
shows that it’s a geopolitical deal,” he said. Sinograin
did not respond to a request for comment.
China
has other reasons to buy American soybeans. Brazil’s soybean inventories have
tightened significantly, potentially giving Beijing an incentive to seek an
alternative supply source if the Brazilian crop disappoints.
But
that commercial logic does not apply as clearly to other American agricultural
products.
Sorghum,
for example, was among the products Mr. Trump said last October that China
would buy in “massive amounts.” Yet sales have been relatively tepid.
Tim
Lust, chief executive officer of the National Sorghum Producers, a group
representing the American sorghum industry, said China had bought about 20
percent less sorghum from the United States than historical averages.
“All
agriculture is struggling right now. From a profitability standpoint, it’s a
tough situation,” Mr. Lust said. “It is important for us to get back to a
managed trade situation and be able to know that we have consistency.”
For
corn, the situation is bleak. Corn sales to China amounted to about $6.9
million from January to July this year, according to data from the U.S.
Department of Agriculture. That is a fraction of the sales in 2022, when China
bought $5.2 billion of the crop.
Analysts
say the sales of wheat, cotton, beef and pork also remain well below recent
levels.
China
also faces structural obstacles to buying more American agricultural products.
An additional 10 percent Chinese tariff on U.S. goods remains in place, while
weakness in the Chinese economy has weighed on demand.
From
a purely commercial standpoint, buying significantly more U.S. agricultural
goods “doesn’t really make sense for China,” said Fred Gale, an expert on
China’s agricultural markets and a former economist at the U.S. Agriculture
Department.
“For
most Chinese private-sector buyers, it’s not really feasible to buy American
products,” Mr. Gale said. “State-owned companies aren’t coming in to buy large
amounts of grain or pork. It’s hard to see exactly what China has in mind,
whether they actually intend to meet those objectives.”