China’s
De-Dollarization Push Faces Setback as Saudi Arabia Exits mBridge
·
Saudi
Arabia has left Project mBridge after completing its proof of concept
for the blockchain-based cross-border central bank digital currency (CBDC)
platform in May 2025.
·
mBridge was launched in 2021 by China, Hong Kong, Thailand, the UAE
and the Bank for International Settlements (BIS) to enable direct cross-border
payments using digital currencies.
·
Saudi
Arabia initially joined as an observing member in 2023 and participated
in developing a proof of concept in 2024.
·
The
Saudi central bank said its participation ended as planned after completing the
PoC, while an FT source said Riyadh no longer wanted to be publicly associated
with the project.
·
The
BIS also exited mBridge in October 2024, saying it had “graduated out” of the
project and denying political considerations.
·
Saudi
Arabia’s involvement had been significant because the kingdom is central to the
petrodollar system, under which oil has traditionally been priced and
traded predominantly in U.S. dollars.
·
The
U.S. dollar remains dominant in global transactions, with the article
citing an estimated share of around 90%.
·
Concerns
over U.S. sanctions following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine have encouraged some
countries to reduce dependence on dollar-based financial infrastructure,
increase gold holdings and diversify away from U.S. Treasuries.
·
Saudi
Arabia has explored yuan-denominated oil transactions with China, while
Russia and Iran have increasingly used the yuan for transactions affected by
U.S. sanctions.
·
Beijing
is also expanding currency-swap agreements and yuan-based trade settlement
with major trading partners as part of its broader effort to internationalize
the yuan.
·
Despite
the Saudi and BIS departures, mBridge
continues to develop, including the addition of Macau.
·
An
Atlantic Council report cited in the article said mBridge
transactions had exceeded $55 billion, approximately 2,500 times the
2022 level.
·
Key
takeaway: Saudi
Arabia’s departure represents a setback for the international profile of mBridge, but the project continues to expand. Its potential
impact is more likely to be a gradual reduction in dollar dominance
rather than an immediate replacement of the dollar in global finance.
China launched mBridge in 2021,
enabling central banks to use digital currencies to carry out transactions
directly via blockchain technology.
China, Hong Kong, Thailand, the United Arab Emirates and
the Bank for International Settlements (BIS), the so-called central bank for
global central banks, initially signed up.
Saudi Arabia told the FT that its central bank, also
known as SAMA, first joined “mBridge under the
umbrella of BIS as an observing member” in 2023 as part of its research into
central bank digital currencies, then participated in efforts in 2024 to create
a proof of concept.
“As planned, SAMA successfully completed its mBridge [proof of concept] on 13 May 2025. Following the
completion of the PoC, SAMA is no longer a participating member of mBridge,” a statement from the central bank said.
A source also told the FT that the Saudi Central
Bank no longer wanted to be publicly involved with mBridge.
When asked if the kingdom came under U.S. pressure to withdraw, another source
said it would be “inaccurate to draw any wider inference.”
That’s after the BIS left mBridge
in October 2024 as the U.S. reportedly lobbied it to exit. But the BIS said it
had “graduated out” and denied there were any political considerations.
Saudi Arabia’s initial participation was seen as a major
win for mBridge as the oil-producing giant serves as
the foundation of today’s “petrodollar” regime that goes back to a deal struck
in 1974, when Riyadh agreed to price its oil in dollars and invest surpluses in
U.S. assets.
The petrodollar eventually spilled over to other areas of
commerce, and the greenback is now used in about 90% of global transactions.
Because oil is a core input to global manufacturing and
transport, supply chains have a natural incentive to dollarize. Indeed, Mideast
oil and gas is used to make petrochemicals, fertilizer, and even helium, which
is critical to chipmaking.
“The world saves in dollars in large part because it pays
in dollars,” Deutsche Bank said in note in March. “The dollar’s dominance in
cross-border trade is arguably built on the petrodollar: globally traded oil is
priced and invoiced in USD.”
Still, the greenback has faced challenges, especially after
U.S. sanctions cut off Russia from the dollar-based financial system in
response to the Kremlin’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022.
Other countries feared they may one day be targeted with
similar sanctions and have been reducing reliance on the dollar-denominated
assets. Central banks, for example, have been loading up on gold in recent
years while trimming their holdings of U.S. Treasuries.
Saudi Arabia has even flirted with pricing some of its oil
sales to China in yuan. Meanwhile, Iran and Russia are using the Chinese
currency to get around U.S. sanctions.
The Iran war could put further strain on the dollar. If Iran
succeeds in forcing other countries to secure safe passage via the Strait of
Hormuz by paying Tehran in yuan, Deutsche Bank warned it could give rise to the
“petroyuan.”
“The current conflict may expose further fault lines, by
challenging the U.S. security umbrella for Gulf infrastructure and the maritime
security for global trade in oil,” analysts added.
Meanwhile, Beijing has extended currency swap agreements
with other central banks and promoted yuan-based transactions with top trade
partners to further weaken the dollar’s dominance.
And mBridge has been making gains
despite the departures of Saudi Arabia and the BIS, while adding Macau as a
participant recently.
A report from the Atlantic Council early this year found
that transactions on the platform had surged to more than $55 billion,
representing a roughly 2,500-fold increase since 2022.
“Project mBridge is unlikely to
challenge dollar dominance directly, but it may incrementally erode
it,” the Atlantic Council’s Alisha Chhangani told
Reuters in January.