China Pushes Renminbi
Globalization to Reduce Dollar Dependence
China’s bid to build
a renminbi-based financial system beyond the U.S. dollar’s reach is gaining traction
as a way to sidestep sanctions.
·
China Accelerating Renminbi Internationalization
China is intensifying efforts to expand global
use of the renminbi as part of a long-term strategy to reduce reliance on the U.S.
dollar.
·
Wars and Sanctions Creating Momentum
Conflicts involving Iran and Russia,
along with Western sanctions, are driving interest in alternatives to the dollar
system.
·
Sanctions Evasion Driving Demand
Countries trading with sanctioned economies
are increasingly using renminbi-based channels to bypass dollar-linked restrictions.
·
China’s Payments Network Seeing Growth
Use of China’s Cross-border Interbank
Payment System (CIPS) has surged, with direct participating institutions
reportedly rising sharply since 2022.
·
Renminbi Payments Jumping
Reports cited:
o Nearly 50% rise in payments using
China’s network last month
o Average daily flows rising from US$86
billion to US$131 billion
·
Russia Increasingly Uses Renminbi
After being cut off from parts of the Western financial system, Russia now reportedly
settles much of its trade with China in renminbi.
·
China Built Parallel Financial Infrastructure Over Decades
Key tools include:
o Currency swap agreements with dozens of
central banks
o Roughly US$600 billion in swap
lines
o CIPS as an alternative payments channel
to SWIFT
·
Strategic Goal: Reduce U.S. Financial Leverage
Even without replacing the dollar, an
alternative system could help Beijing and partners reduce exposure to U.S. sanctions
pressure.
·
Xi Reaffirmed Reserve Currency Ambition
Xi Jinping has called for wider use of the renminbi
in trade and eventual reserve-currency status.
·
Major Limits Remain
The renminbi still faces obstacles:
o Only about 3% of global transactions
o Tight Chinese capital controls
o Limited offshore liquidity
o Lack of deep, dollar-like safe assets
·
Dollar Still Dominant
The U.S. dollar remains the central
global trade and reserve currency despite growing de-dollarization interest.
·
Strategic Takeaway
Current geopolitical shocks are strengthening
China’s currency push, not necessarily to replace the dollar, but to build a viable
parallel financial system beyond U.S. sanctions reach.
[ABS News Service/24.04.2026]
Neat rows of Chinese
currency bills sit behind glass at the center of the national
security gallery inside Hong Kong’s Museum of History, along with model fighter
jets, attack helicopters and vials of rare-earth metals.
Set with instruments
of war and trade, the display underscores a central idea: The internationalization of its currency, the renminbi, is considered a pillar
of China’s national security.
Despite its rise as
an economic superpower, China remains reliant on a global financial system anchored
by the dollar. Turning the renminbi into a globally accepted currency would let
Beijing conduct more trade on its own terms and blunt a longstanding source of American
leverage.
That push has gained
momentum from the wars in Ukraine and Iran, as sanctions drive American adversaries
toward the renminbi to bypass the Western financial system. In effect, China’s 20-year
project to build the international financial ties and technological infrastructure
for a globally accepted currency is paying off, even if others are the ones sidestepping
the dollar.
China’s financial positioning is “meeting the demand for de-dollarization”
from countries seeking to trade with restricted nations like Iran, said Alisha Chhangani,
an associate director at the Atlantic Council, a Washington think tank.
Since the end of World War II, when 44 countries agreed to make the
dollar the world’s reserve currency, most global trade has run on it. That dominance
has given the United States powerful leverage, allowing it to impose sanctions that
can all but ensure financial ruin.
Recent conflicts have
shown how a Chinese alternative can offer a way around the system. At least two ships have paid Iran in renminbi to secure safe transit through the Strait
of Hormuz, according to Lloyd’s List Intelligence, a maritime information service.
Payments using China’s
network rose nearly 50 percent last month as countries bought Iranian oil, according
to data from the Atlantic Council. Russia, cut off from the dollar after invading
Ukraine, now settles most of its trade with China in renminbi.
In March, Qiushi, the
Chinese Communist Party’s ideological journal, resurfaced a 2024 speech by Xi Jinping,
China’s leader, calling for the renminbi to be “widely used in international trade”
and to “attain reserve currency status.”
The dollar is still
the top currency of choice in international trade, valued for its liquidity and
ease of use. The euro, yen and British pound are distant runners-up. Even transactions
that do not involve the United States are often done with dollars, including most
of China’s own trade. The renminbi accounts for just 3 percent of global transactions,
roughly the same as the Canadian dollar.
China’s tight financial controls have long held back the renminbi’s global use, making it less attractive
to hold. Capital flows are tightly managed. Citizens can move only limited sums
abroad each year, and foreign investors face strict quotas and must obtain approvals
to buy Chinese
stocks and bonds.
But China doesn’t need
to displace the dollar to move closer to escaping America’s financial grip, said
Edward Fishman, a fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations. Simply having an alternative
system in place for emergencies is enough to weaken Washington’s chokehold on global
finance.
Beijing has gone to
extraordinary lengths to insulate itself from geopolitical shocks, building stockpiles
of oil, gas and critical materials. It even maintains a strategic reserve of pork, a staple of the nation’s
diet. In the same vein, China has spent decades developing a parallel financial
infrastructure that operates outside the dollar system.
Beginning in the 2000s,
China signed currency-swap agreements with dozens of central banks, giving trading
partners access to the renminbi without going through the dollar-based system. These
so-called swap lines, totaling roughly $600 billion, provide
emergency liquidity and could expand China’s influence in a financial crisis.
In 2015, China launched
the Cross-border Interbank Payment System, or CIPS, allowing banks worldwide to settle
payments in renminbi. The system offers an alternative to SWIFT, the Belgian-based
messaging network that underpins most global transactions. Both Russian and Iranian
banks have been kicked off SWIFT under U.S. pressure.
Since Russian banks were removed from SWIFT after its full-scale
invasion of Ukraine in 2022, the number of institutions directly participating in
CIPS has nearly tripled, rising to nearly 200 from 75, according to Chinese government
data.
Money flowing through China’s financial plumbing has surged since
the war in Iran forced the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a vital shipping channel through which
roughly 20 percent of the world’s oil flows, according to the Atlantic Council’s
GeoEconomics Center. Countries
desperate for oil are increasingly using the Chinese network to pay for internationally
restricted crude outside the dollar system.
From February to March, the average daily payments rose to more than
$131 billion a day from $86 billion, while the average transaction size increased
over 8 percent, according to data from the Atlantic Council’s GeoEconomics Center. Shanghai Securities
News, a state-owned newspaper, attributed the growth in use to “continued uncertainty
in the Middle East.”
“The uptick has to be other countries in Asia that are switching
to usage in this moment” to buy restricted oil, said Josh Lipsky, the director of
the GeoEconomics Center at the
Atlantic Council.
Major hurdles remain for the renminbi to challenge the dollar’s dominance,
said Eswar Prasad, a professor of economics at Cornell University.
For the currency to play a larger global role, it must be easier
to use outside China, which requires loosening Beijing’s tight capital flow controls.
The government has been reluctant to take that step for fear of losing control of
its exchange rate. Without that opening, there is not enough renminbi circulating
abroad for trading partners to do much beyond buying Chinese goods, Mr. Prasad said.
When countries like Saudi Arabia sell their oil for dollars, they
can easily recycle those proceeds into liquid assets such as U.S. Treasury bonds.
With renminbi, there is no equivalent yet.
So far, China has taken small but meaningful steps toward strengthening
its cross-border payment system. It is still unclear whether China is truly on a
“durable path” to becoming a major global payments currency, Mr. Prasad said. But
one thing is clear: “There is a desperate desire in the world to escape the clutches
of the dollar-denominated system.”