China Restricts Diesel, Jet Fuel and Gasoline Exports Amid Global Fuel
Supply Pressures
China has started limiting exports of
refined products again as its own inventories of crude oil and refined products
have dwindled.
1.
New Export Restrictions: China
has again tightened exports of diesel, jet fuel and gasoline, with
state-owned oil companies slowing shipments and the government reportedly
withholding new commercial export permits for wider global markets.
2.
Exports to Close Partners Continue:
Shipments are still continuing to countries closely aligned with Beijing,
including Cambodia, while exports to broader international markets are
being restricted.
3.
Echo of Earlier Restrictions: The move
resembles restrictions imposed by China in March 2026 following
disruptions to oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz. Those curbs were
subsequently eased.
4.
Global Diesel Supply Already Tight:
o
Russia renewed its diesel-export ban
after Ukrainian drone attacks damaged refineries.
o
An Indian refinery fire led to some
refined-product exports being halted to prioritize domestic demand.
o
The United States is considering
restrictions on diesel exports to reduce domestic fuel costs.
5.
Diesel Prices Rise: Chinese
restrictions pushed Singapore diesel prices up about 5% on Wednesday and
Thursday, even as crude oil prices fell nearly 10%.
6.
Prices Subsequently Ease: Diesel
prices later returned to around $170 per barrel after European countries
discussed releasing strategic diesel reserves.
7.
Jet Fuel Impact: Jet fuel prices have also
increased in East Asia, potentially raising airline operating costs and
passenger fares. Fuel is one of airlines' two major expenses, alongside labour.
8.
Estimated Reduction in Chinese Exports:
According to Argus analyst Tom Reed, China's refined-product exports could fall
to around 480,000 barrels/day in October, compared with an earlier
forecast of 750,000 barrels/day.
9.
Potential November Reduction: After
refiners use remaining September export quotas, exports could decline further
to around 300,000 barrels/day in November, unless Beijing changes its
policy.
10.
Duration Uncertain: Kpler analyst Muyu Xu said it remains unclear whether China
has imposed a lasting export halt or whether approval of new licences has
simply been delayed because of China's week-long national holiday.
11.
Sinopec Production Cuts: Sinopec,
China's largest refiner, had reportedly informed industry experts that it would
reduce production and exports from October following a directive from China's National
Development and Reform Commission (NDRC).
12.
Concern Over High Crude Prices: China's
decision partly reflects concern about rising crude prices. As the world's
largest oil importer, China is wary of encouraging refiners to purchase
additional expensive imported crude.
13.
Rising Domestic Diesel Demand: Domestic
diesel consumption is also increasing during China's autumn harvest,
adding pressure to available supplies.
14.
Iranian Crude Supply Disruption: China's
smaller private refiners have traditionally relied heavily on discounted
Iranian crude. However, seaborne Iranian crude shipments arriving in China have
reportedly dried up over the past two months because of an American
naval embargo outside the Persian Gulf.
15.
Private Refiners Draw Down Stocks: Private
refiners continued operating at full capacity through September, using existing
crude inventories to benefit from high refined-product prices.
16.
Earlier 2026 Experience: During
the Iran war, Chinese refined-product exports fell to around 300,000
barrels/day between April and June, causing concern among Asian countries
dependent on Chinese fuel supplies.
17.
Regional Impact: Vietnam, the Philippines and
Australia had previously sought Chinese cooperation over fuel or other
export restrictions. Vietnam experienced jet-fuel shortages severe enough to
cause flight cancellations.
18.
Exports Had Recovered: Chinese
exports of gasoline, jet fuel and diesel recovered to prewar levels in July
and nearly doubled in August, according to Chinese customs data.
19.
Current Risk: With Chinese fuel inventories
declining and Iranian crude supplies remaining constrained, the latest
restrictions could again tighten refined-product availability across Asian
and global energy markets.
20.
Australia's Response:
Australia said it continues to engage with China and other countries, with a
focus on securing energy supplies and supporting regional energy security.
Key Trade
& Energy Impact
China's refined-fuel export
restrictions + Russian diesel ban + Indian refinery disruption + Iranian
crude-supply constraints are occurring simultaneously, increasing pressure
on the Asian diesel and jet-fuel markets and creating uncertainty over
regional fuel availability and prices.
China
is again restricting exports of diesel, jet fuel and gasoline, threatening to
squeeze global energy markets already strained by fuel supply disruptions.
China’s
state-owned oil giants have recently started slowing exports of refined
products, according to oil analysts in regular contact with the companies.
Shipments are continuing to countries with close ties to Beijing, including
Cambodia, but the government has stopped granting new commercial export permits
to wider global markets.
The
move echoes restrictions Beijing imposed in March after the war in Iran
disrupted oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz. The sudden drop in Chinese
fuel exports sent Asian countries scrambling for alternative supplies. Those
restrictions were eventually eased. But this time, the curbs come as diesel
markets are already contending with diminished supply.
Russia
this week renewed a ban on diesel exports after Ukrainian drone attacks damaged
refineries that also supply fuel to Russian forces in eastern Ukraine. A fire
at an Indian refinery on Tuesday prompted its owner to halt some exports of
refined products, including diesel, to prioritize domestic customers. And in
the United States, President Trump has threatened to restrict diesel exports so
as to lower costs for truckers ahead of the midterm elections.
China’s
latest move sent diesel prices up 5 percent on Wednesday and Thursday in
Singapore, Asia’s main energy trading hub, even as crude oil prices fell almost
10 percent. Diesel prices gave up their gains on Friday, returning to about
$170 a barrel after European countries discussed whether to release diesel
strategic reserves into the market.
Jet
fuel prices have also climbed in East Asia, raising the prospect of higher
airline costs and ticket prices. Fuel is one of the two main expenses for
airlines, along with labor.
China’s
restrictions amount to “a significant tightening of the diesel market at a time
when the diesel market is already in crisis,” said Tom Reed, a longtime
specialist in China’s oil policies at Argus, a commodities pricing and energy
research firm in London.
Mr.
Reed estimated that the restrictions would reduce China’s exports of refined
products to 480,000 barrels a day in October, from an earlier forecast of
750,000 barrels. After refiners exercise export quotas
left over from September, shipments could fall to 300,000 barrels per day in
November unless Beijing changes course, he added.
Uncertainty
remains about how long the restrictions will last. Muyu Xu, an oil analyst at Kpler, a commodities research and ship-tracking firm, said
it was unclear whether Beijing had imposed a lasting halt or had delayed
approving new export licenses because of a weeklong national holiday that
started on Thursday. The market may have to wait until next week for a clearer
signal, she said.
“They’ve
still got time to reassess the situation,” she said.
Reuters
reported earlier that Chinese refiners had suspended exports of oil products
beyond Hong Kong and Macau until further notice.
The
country’s largest refiner, China Petroleum and Chemical Corporation, or
Sinopec, told industry experts last month that it would begin curbing
production and exports in October in response to a directive from the National
Development and Reform Commission, China’s main economic planning agency.
The
company did not immediately respond to a request for comment.
The
decision reveals, in part, Beijing’s concern about rising crude prices. China
is the world’s largest importer of oil, and officials are wary of encouraging
refiners to buy more crude when global prices are
high. Domestic diesel demand is also rising during China’s autumn harvest.
Sinopec,
which relies heavily on imported crude, has already started reducing its
exports. Its main rival, PetroChina, relies more on domestic crude. Both
companies are majority-owned by the Chinese government, but some of their
shares are publicly traded. PetroChina did not respond to phone calls or an
email for comment.
Another
pressure is coming from Iran.
For
years, China’s smaller private refineries have bought almost all of Iran’s
crude oil exports at steep discounts, despite Western sanctions intended to
pressure Tehran over its nuclear program. Those refiners sell diesel, gasoline
and jet fuel primarily inside China, leaving the large state-owned refiners
with more fuel available for export.
But
seaborne shipments of Iranian crude arriving in China have dried up over the
past two months because of an American naval embargo outside the Persian Gulf.
The private refiners kept running at full capacity through September, Mr. Reed
said, drawing down crude inventories to take advantage of high prices for
refined products.
China
faced a similar squeeze earlier this year. In the early days of the war in
Iran, Beijing restricted oil-product exports from mainland China with a few
exceptions, including Hong Kong and Macau and a few closely aligned countries.
Chinese exports of refined products fell to about 300,000 barrels a day from
April to June, alarming Asian countries that rely heavily on Chinese
refineries.
Vietnam,
the Philippines and Australia were among those that appealed to Beijing.
Vietnam faced a jet fuel shortage that forced its national carrier to cancel
flights. In the Philippines, the agriculture secretary pressed China’s
ambassador over restrictions on fertilizer exports. Australia’s foreign
minister traveled to Beijing in April, an appeal that
was followed by a broader Chinese commitment to cooperate with Australian
companies.
Chinese
exports of gasoline, jet fuel and diesel recovered to prewar levels in July and
nearly doubled in August, according to Chinese customs data.
Now,
those assurances are being tested as China’s inventories shrink and Iranian
crude remains unavailable.
In
a statement on Friday, a spokesperson for Australia’s Department of Foreign
Affairs and Trade said it continued to “engage with China and other countries”
and was focused on securing energy supplies and supporting regional energy
security.