China’s tobacco monopoly has become so financially
vital to the government that even its powerful leader has failed to curb the country’s
smoking habit.
·
In
2012, Xi Jinping, then China’s vice president and a former smoker, told Bill
Gates he intended to address China’s smoking problem.
·
Soon
afterward, China’s first lady Peng Liyuan appeared with Gates at an
anti-smoking campaign event in Beijing.
·
Despite
early signals, China has made only limited progress in reducing tobacco use or
implementing a nationwide indoor smoking ban.
·
Cigarette
consumption in China increased by 39% between 2003 and 2023, while global
cigarette consumption outside China fell by 26%.
·
China
consumes around 2.4 trillion cigarettes annually, accounting for nearly half of
global cigarette sales.
·
Although
the smoking rate has gradually declined, overall cigarette sales have continued
to grow.
·
Cigarettes
remain relatively cheap in China:
o Average price per pack: about $3
o Roughly one-third of average U.S.
cigarette prices
·
The
key obstacle to stronger tobacco control is the State Tobacco Monopoly
Administration, which both regulates the tobacco industry and oversees the
China National Tobacco Corporation.
·
The
tobacco monopoly generated approximately $244 billion in profit and tax revenue
in 2025:
o Equivalent to around 7% of China’s
national government revenue
o Comparable to China’s official defense spending
·
Tobacco
revenues have become increasingly important as China faces:
o Slower economic growth
o A prolonged property market downturn
o Falling local government land-sale
revenues
·
The
tobacco administration has directed funds toward major state priorities,
including:
o More than $1 billion injected into a major
Chinese bank
o Support for China’s $100 billion
semiconductor investment fund
·
The
agency’s political influence remains strong:
o Its chief administrator holds
vice-ministerial rank.
o Seven former senior officials have been
arrested on corruption charges in recent years.
·
China
ratified the World Health Organization tobacco-control treaty in 2005 but has
not fully implemented its strongest measures.
·
In
2017, the tobacco administration reportedly blocked efforts to create a
nationwide indoor smoking ban, shifting responsibility to local governments.
·
Many
local smoking regulations remain weak and poorly enforced, especially outside
major cities.
·
Cigarette
packaging in China carries limited health warnings compared to stricter warning
labels used in Western countries.
·
In
2022, the tobacco administration expanded its authority to regulate
e-cigarettes and vaping products.
·
China
imposed stricter vape regulations, including:
o Restrictions on sales locations
o Bans on flavored
vape products
·
Unlike
many countries, vaping has not significantly reduced cigarette demand in China.
·
A
study by Zheng Rong found that roughly half of cigarette revenue flows into
government finances.
·
Dependence
on tobacco taxes is especially severe in major tobacco-producing regions:
o Kunming: tobacco taxes accounted for over
50% of the city budget in 2024.
o Changde: tobacco taxes contributed 20% of tax
revenue in 2022.
·
Local
tobacco bureaus have actively sought to weaken anti-smoking initiatives.
·
Young
activists and influencers have increasingly promoted anti-smoking campaigns
independently of the government.
·
Alva
Zhang organized social media campaigns encouraging citizens to report public
smoking violations.
·
Public
support for stricter anti-smoking measures appears to be growing, especially
among younger generations and women.
·
After
taking power in 2013, Xi’s government banned officials from smoking during
official activities and in public venues.
·
Beijing
later adopted stricter indoor smoking restrictions and became one of China’s
first major cities with such rules.
·
In
2015, China raised tobacco taxes, increasing cigarette prices by over 10%.
·
However,
anti-smoking momentum weakened after:
o Crackdowns on foreign NGOs supporting
tobacco-control campaigns
o Economic slowdown increasing social stress
and nicotine use
o Greater government focus on disease
control after the COVID-19 pandemic
·
China
officially aims to reduce its smoking rate from 23% to 20% by 2030.
·
Wu Xiangtian acknowledged in 2024 that achieving the target
would be extremely difficult, stating that “the pressure is immense.”
On
a warm spring day in 2012, Xi Jinping, then China’s vice president, met with Bill
Gates in Beijing. As the men were walking out of the meeting room, the conversation
turned to smoking in a country that consumes nearly half the world’s cigarettes.
Mr.
Xi, a former smoker, said he felt much better after quitting years earlier and described
tobacco use as a serious problem for China, recalled Dr. Ray Yip, then head of the
Gates Foundation in China. Mr. Xi, who would become president the next year, promised
to “do something about tobacco,” Dr. Yip said.
Days
later, Mr. Gates appeared at an antismoking event with Peng Liyuan, the Chinese
leader’s wife and a celebrity singer. Both wore red shirts emblazoned with an antismoking
slogan.
Yet
in the 14 years since, as Mr. Xi has become China’s most dominant leader in decades,
Beijing has made only slow progress curbing tobacco use or enacting a national indoor
smoking ban. While cigarette sales have fallen across much of the world, China has
moved in the opposite direction.
Cigarette
consumption in China rose 39 percent from 2003 to 2023, even as it fell 26 percent
in the rest of the world. The 2.4 trillion cigarettes sold in China each year account
for nearly half the global total, according to a report by a nongovernmental organization
founded by former officials from the Chinese Center for
Disease Control and Prevention.
The
percentage of smokers has declined over the last 13 years, as fewer young people
smoke, but cigarette sales have steadily grown. Cigarettes prices are low: A pack
costs about $3 on average, roughly one-third the price in the United States.
The
failure to slow cigarette sales is a measure of the clout wielded by China’s State
Tobacco Monopoly Administration, which both regulates the industry and operates
the country’s dominant cigarette maker, the China National Tobacco Corporation.
The
company generated roughly $244 billion in profit and tax revenue in 2025, about
7 percent of national government revenue and nearly what China says it spends on
defense.
With
economic growth slowing and a prolonged property slump eroding local governments’
land-sale income, tobacco revenue has become even more essential. The agency has
also channeled its profits to support several of Mr. Xi’s
strategic priorities.
Last
year, it injected more than $1 billion into one of China’s biggest banks to shore
up the financial system. It has also been a major backer of a $100 billion national
semiconductor investment fund.
The
financial weight has translated into political influence. The agency’s chief administrator
holds a rank equivalent to a deputy government minister. Seven former top administrators
have been arrested on corruption charges in the past seven years.
In
2022, the agency expanded its authority to cover vapes, imposing far stricter rules,
including limits on where they can be sold and bans on flavored
products. Unlike in other countries, vaping has not eroded cigarette demand in China.
Beijing ratified the World Health Organization tobacco-control treaty in 2005 but
has never implemented its strictest provisions.
The
administration’s clearest victory came around 2017 when it blocked a yearslong push
for a national indoor smoking ban, shifting responsibility to local governments,
where enforcement is often weak.
Today,
many local smoking regulations are largely toothless and offer scant protection
from secondhand smoke, particularly in less developed
parts of the country. While cigarette packs in the United States and other Western
countries carry impossible-to-ignore health warnings, packaging in China bears a
single-line caution alongside images of national symbols like pandas and the Gate
of Heavenly Peace.
A
2022 study published by the Chinese C.D.C. concluded that the country’s inability
to rein in smoking was the result of interference by the state monopoly and the
government’s “ambiguous attitudes” toward tobacco.
The
influence of local branches of the State Tobacco Monopoly Administration deepened
after the Covid-19 pandemic, when many governments were left financially strained
by the cost of mass testing. Their lobbying is especially effective because cigarette
production and consumption taxes are instrumental to local budgets.
A
study by Zheng Rong, a professor at the University of International Business and
Economics in Beijing, found that roughly half the revenue from each cigarette sold
by Chinese manufacturers flowed into government coffers.
The
dependence is acute in China’s largest tobacco-producing regions. In Kunming, the
capital of Yunnan Province in southwestern China, tobacco taxes accounted for more
than half the city budget in 2024. In Changde, a city
in Hunan Province in central China, tobacco taxes accounted for 20 percent of its
tax revenue in 2022.
Local
tobacco bureaus fight to water down even modest antismoking initiatives.
In
Xinyu, a city in Jiangxi Province, the local health commission proposed designating
certain public areas as “smoke-free,” according to official documents posted online.
The
proposal already excluded restaurants and bars, falling short of World Health Organization
recommendations that all indoor public spaces be nonsmoking. But the local tobacco
bureau suggested narrowing the definition of smoke-free schools to apply only to
elementary and middle schools. After a public uproar, the bureau’s efforts were
unsuccessful.
As
government efforts have stalled, young people, especially women, have started organizing
their own campaigns.
Alva
Zhang, a 23-year-old influencer, created a social media account and WeChat groups
encouraging followers to confront smokers in public venues and file complaints with
authorities.
“Because
there are only some regulations with barely any penalty, I and many others have
experienced anger and helplessness,” Ms. Zhang said.
Public
support appeared to be growing. A female comedian gained national attention and
praise from health agencies after performing a routine that mocked inconsiderate
smokers. Hundreds have shared their proposals for stricter smoking rules in China’s
government surveys.
Early
in his tenure, Mr. Xi appeared willing to challenge the tobacco industry.
After
he came to power in 2013, the central government issued a directive forbidding officials
to smoke during government activities or in public venues. It called on officials
to show “exemplary compliance” with the rules.
Dr.
Yip, the former Gates Foundation official, said the directive most likely had come
directly from Mr. Xi and helped accelerate Beijing’s adoption of indoor smoking
restrictions, making the capital one of the first major Chinese cities to enact
such rules.
Two
years later, in 2015, China raised tobacco taxes, pushing cigarette prices up more
than 10 percent.
But
the push for a national indoor smoking ban lost steam around the same time. It was
also the last time Ms. Peng, China’s first lady, publicly championed antismoking
efforts, appearing again with Mr. Gates in Seattle to assess research on helping
people quit.
Dr.
Yip and other experts point to one reason China’s antismoking momentum shifted.
Beginning in 2015, China intensified its crackdown on foreign nongovernmental organizations,
a major source of funding for antismoking campaigns.
Matthew
Kohrman, a Stanford University professor who studies smoking in China, said the
country’s economic slowdown had most likely driven more people toward nicotine as
a “potent mood modulator,” while weak enforcement of smoking restrictions had made
cigarettes easier to consume in public.
Since
the pandemic, the National Health Commission has prioritized disease control over
curbing tobacco use. China still officially aims to bring the smoking rate down
to 20 percent by 2030 from the current 23 percent.
Wu
Xiangtian, an official from the National Health Commission,
acknowledged in 2024 how difficult that target would be.
“To
be honest,” he said, “the pressure is immense.”