China and India may Come Together in Sept BRICS
Summit?
Analysts say a unified Brics could support
Oman-led talks for a resolution and provide an alternative to US diplomacy
·
BRICS summit on September 12–13 is
raising hopes that India and China could work together to help address the
Strait of Hormuz crisis and the wider global energy disruption.
·
BRICS has significant economic weight, with
its 11 members accounting for around 40% of global GDP, giving the
grouping potential influence in efforts to stabilise the global economy.
·
India and China share important economic interests despite
differences in geopolitical alignment. Both want:
o
Iran and Ukraine conflicts contained.
o
Energy supplies secured.
o
The Strait of Hormuz reopened.
o
Global economic stability restored.
·
Their geopolitical positions remain different: China
has closer relations with Russia and Iran, while India maintains strategic
partnerships with the US, Europe, Israel, UAE and Ukraine.
·
These differences could actually facilitate
cooperation, as India and China may be able to engage with
different sides and encourage broader diplomatic convergence.
·
Brazil could act as a bridge within
BRICS and help manage differences among members, particularly by representing
the wider Global South.
·
Internal divisions are already evident: the
BRICS foreign ministers’ meeting in New Delhi in May ended without a joint
statement because members disagreed over the Middle East conflict.
·
Iran and the UAE have particularly divergent
positions over the conflict, with Iran seeking explicit
condemnation of US and Israeli actions while other members resisted such
language.
·
India-China relations have cautiously improved,
including the resumption of direct flights after a five-year suspension and the
restart of cross-border trade through the Lipulekh
Pass.
·
The unresolved India-China border dispute remains a
major constraint, but both countries have moved towards a
diplomatic thaw.
·
Possible BRICS agenda: India
and China could support a diplomatic roadmap for de-escalation and ceasefires
involving the US-Iran and Ukraine-Russia conflicts.
·
Both countries are unlikely to become deeply
involved in conflict resolution, instead potentially focusing on
multipolarity, Global South cooperation and resisting excessive dependence on
Western sanctions frameworks.
·
Western sanctions are adding economic pressure: the US
has threatened punitive measures against third countries and recently passed
legislation that could impose tariffs of up to 100% on countries including
India and China that continue buying Russian oil.
·
The Strait of Hormuz is a crucial test for BRICS: the
waterway previously carried around one-fifth of global oil, making its
reopening vital for India, China and Gulf states.
·
A practical BRICS objective could be narrower than
resolving the conflict itself: ensuring uninterrupted
commercial shipping, preventing attacks on merchant vessels and establishing a
negotiated de-escalation mechanism.
·
BRICS could support rather than replace Oman-led
negotiations between the relevant parties over the Strait of
Hormuz.
·
US credibility as a mediator is questioned because
Washington is directly involved in the Middle East conflict, while Iran has
said it will not resume talks with the US under current circumstances.
·
Further regional instability threatens energy
supplies: Iran-aligned Houthis reportedly attacked Saudi
Aramco’s Jazan refinery, adding to concerns over regional security.
·
BRICS could provide an inclusive, multipolar
diplomatic platform bringing together countries with shared interests
in energy security, maritime trade and a less confrontational global order.
Bottom
Line
The Strait of Hormuz crisis could
become a major test of BRICS’ ability to translate its economic weight into
diplomatic influence. India-China cooperation—despite their geopolitical
differences—could provide the basis for a broader BRICS effort focused on safe
commercial shipping, energy security and de-escalation, rather than
attempting to impose a single geopolitical position.
A
summit next month by the Brics grouping of nations has raised hopes that major players
India and China will align to rally member states to resolve the Strait of Hormuz
crisis, with the United States making little headway.
Analysts
say the forum from September 12 to 13 amid the global energy crisis wrought by the
Middle East conflict could see parallel diplomacy, given the 11-member grouping’s
economic clout accounts for about 40 per cent of the world’s gross domestic product.
“I
see a convergence of interests between India and China, though not necessarily a
convergence in geopolitical positions,” said Uday Chandra, a political-science professor
at India’s Ashoka University.
“Both
countries would like the Iran and Ukraine wars contained, energy supplies secured,
the Strait of Hormuz fully reopened, and the global economy stabilised in the medium
run.”
“But
China is closer to Russia and Iran than India is. India, in turn, has vital strategic
partnerships with the US, Europe, Israel, the UAE and Ukraine,” Chandra said. “Paradoxically,
these differences may make India-China cooperation more worthwhile.”
Brazil,
seen as a major voice and bridge for the Global South, could help smooth out internal
divides within Brics, he added.
The
bloc, originally comprising Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa, has expanded
to include Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, the United Arab Emirates, Indonesia and Saudi
Arabia.
The
Brics foreign ministers’ meeting in New Delhi in May concluded without a joint statement
because of differing views among members regarding the Middle East conflict.
Deep
divisions surfaced between newer members Iran and the UAE over the regional conflict.
Iranian officials pushed the bloc to explicitly condemn US and Israeli actions,
while other member states objected to the language.
“If
Delhi and Beijing agree on certain basic principles for de-escalation, they may
be able to bring very different parties towards them. Strategic cooperation and
economic competition may be perfectly compatible in the medium to long run,” Chandra
said.
China
and India have cautiously improved ties in recent months, resuming direct flights
last October after a five-year suspension and restarting cross-border trade through
the Lipulekh Pass in the Himalayas earlier this month.
A
military stand-off along their disputed border remains a point of strain, though
both nations have moved towards a diplomatic thaw.
“There
could be some convergence albeit limited on moving ahead with the diplomatic and
dialogue process [at the Brics summit], and perhaps even proposing a definitive
road map towards a lasting ceasefire [between US and Iran, and Ukraine and Russia]
to end the conflicts,” said Srikumar Menon, a former Indian diplomat.
“Both
India and China are unlikely to get involved or position themselves deeply in the
process. In fact, the two may rather focus on seeking support for multipolarity,
leveraging the Global South card and finding ways to not give in to sanctions imposed
by the West.”
Western
nations – led primarily by the US – have actively imposed punitive secondary sanctions
and tariff threats against third-country companies, financial institutions and individuals
to discourage them from trading with Russia and Iran.
The
US Senate recently passed legislation that could once again see tariffs of up to
100 per cent levied on countries – including India and China – that continue to
buy Russian oil.
The
convergence of common economic interests in helping resolve geopolitical conflicts
such as the Strait of Hormuz disruption “may even goad both sides [India and China]
to act with more caution and care than has been in the past decade”, Chandra said.
“Whether
it leads to durable peace around geopolitical focal points remains to be seen,”
he added. “Hormuz is probably where Brics faces its stiffest test. Iran may view
restrictions on American shipping as legitimate strategic leverage, but India, China
and the Gulf states need the waterway to function normally.”
Iran
and Oman have progressed towards reaching a deal on Hormuz, which carried a fifth
of the world’s oil before the conflict. Tehran has said reopening the waterway would
be subject to Washington meeting conditions, including American reparations for
attacks on Iran.
Brics
could focus on a narrower objective such as uninterrupted commercial shipping, no
attacks on merchant vessels, and a negotiated mechanism for de-escalation, Chandra
said. “It should support, not supplant, Oman-led negotiations.”
Doubts over US role
Foreign
Minister Abbas Araghchi said on Sunday that Iran and the US were not engaged in
talks and Tehran would not start them as long as Washington breached an interim
agreement signed in June.
Meanwhile,
in a further threat to supply, the Iran-aligned Houthis said they had hit Saudi
Aramco’s Jazan refinery on Sunday.
The
attack came two days after Saudi Arabia signed a defence pact with Turkey and Pakistan
in response to growing regional instability that has undermined confidence among
nations about Washington’s ability to secure peace and stability.
Srinivaasan
Balakrishnan, director of strategic engagements and partnerships at the Delhi-based
think tank Indic Researchers Forum, said Brics could provide “precisely the kind
of inclusive, multipolar platform that can offer a credible alternative to US-centric
approaches in resolving conflicts”.
The
US being a “direct party” to the conflict in the Middle East “limits Washington’s
ability to act as a neutral broker”, but Brics brought together players with “shared
stakes in energy security, maritime commerce and a less zero-sum global order”,
Balakrishnan said.
“It
is not a military alliance or an anti-Western bloc, it is a forum where differences
can be managed without forcing alignment.”