Chinese Companies Set for Major Global Expansion, Goldman Sachs Projects

The report says the biggest opportunities favour ‘latecomers’ in fields such as robotaxis, e-commerce, surgical robots and power equipment

o Chinese companies expanding overseas are expected to increase their average market share in export markets from 18% in 2026 to 31% by 2035.

o Goldman Sachs says Chinese firms are moving from the periphery toward the core of global business competition.

2. Revenue Could Surge 3.6-Fold

o Revenue of the Chinese companies covered in the study could grow 3.6 times by 2035.

o The report analysed 40 companies across 11 sectors—21 Chinese companies and 19 global peers.

3. “Latecomers” Have Biggest Opportunities

o Goldman Sachs sees strong expansion potential for Chinese companies in sectors including:

§ Robotaxis

§ E-commerce

§ Surgical robots

§ Clear dental aligners

§ Power equipment.

4. Global Expansion Not Fully Reflected in Share Prices

o Goldman Sachs believes financial markets have not yet fully priced in the overseas growth potential of Chinese companies.

o Some sectors outside China are trading at less than 1× earnings, according to the report.

5. Expansion Will Become More Difficult

o As Chinese firms move into core market segments, they will face stronger incumbent competitors.

o Goldman Sachs expects the expansion path to become more complex, slower and harder as competitive barriers increase.

6. “Early Achievers” Face Greater Pressure

o Chinese companies that have already achieved significant overseas penetration—particularly carmakers in Europe—face more mature and heavily contested markets.

o Price competition could put pressure on their future revenue growth.

7. Impact on Non-Chinese Companies

o If the projected Chinese expansion occurs, aggregate revenue of non-Chinese companies covered by the analysis could still reach 1.6 times current levels by 2035.

8. Sectors Difficult for Chinese Firms to Penetrate

o Goldman Sachs identifies HVAC, express delivery and industrial robots as sectors where Chinese companies will face the greatest difficulty overseas.

o Established competitors have strong competitive moats in these areas.

9. Emerging Markets Lead Chinese Expansion

o Chinese companies have achieved their largest market-share gains in emerging markets, followed by the European Union.

o This contrasts with perceptions that the U.S.–China market is the most contested.

10. Current Overseas Market Share

o Emerging markets: 24%

o EU: 16%

o U.S.: 10% — the lowest among the major markets examined.

11. Rapid Growth in Emerging Markets

o Chinese companies' aggregate revenue growth in emerging markets has been nearly 15 times faster than underlying organic market growth.

12. “Disruptive Innovation” Strategy

o In nearly 70% of cases, Chinese companies entered international markets through disruptive innovation.

o They typically began with low-end segments or emerging markets where consumers were price-sensitive and incumbent products were relatively expensive or underserved.

13. Consumer Products Have Strongest Adoption

o Chinese industrial products are generally viewed as more disruptive.

o However, consumer products have achieved the highest adoption rates in overseas markets.

Key Takeaway

Chinese companies are expected to become significantly more influential in global markets by 2035, with market share projected to rise from 18% to 31% and revenue potentially increasing 3.6-fold. Their strongest gains are likely to come initially from emerging markets and price-sensitive segments, before they increasingly challenge established global players in core markets.

[ABS News Service/15.09.2026]

Chinese companies “going global” are moving from the peripheral to the core in the business world, with their average market share in export markets projected to rise to 31 per cent by 2035 from 18 per cent this year, according to a Goldman Sachs report on Monday (14.09.2026).

The global expansion of Chinese firms was not yet fully reflected in their share prices, but their revenue would grow 3.6-fold by 2035, according to the report, which covered 40 global companies in 11 sectors, including 21 Chinese players and 19 of their global peers.

The report said the biggest growth opportunities favour the “latecomers”, including companies in sectors such as robotaxis, e-commerce, surgical robots, clear dental aligners and power equipment, which have the potential to expand their market positions.

“Markets have yet to price in China’s global growth opportunity, with a number of sectors trading at less than 1x [earnings] in international markets excluding China,” said Trina Chen, a Hong Kong-based analyst at Goldman Sachs, in the report co-authored by 36 analysts globally.

“We recognise there is far more complexity entrenched in the outlook for Chinese companies going global. We see a harder path and slower pace as the competitive ground shifts towards core segments, where the moat of the incumbents is widest.”

Conversely, the outlook is less favourable for “early achievers”, including carmakers operating in Europe, who face more mature, contested and potentially price-destructive expansion paths. Consequently, implied revenue could come under greater pressure.

For non-Chinese companies, Goldman Sachs estimated that their aggregate revenue would reach 1.6 times current levels by 2035, provided that its assumptions for Chinese company expansion played out.

Meanwhile, the investment bank said sectors such as heating, ventilation and air conditioning, express delivery services, and industrial robots would be the hardest for Chinese competitors to penetrate overseas, given the incumbents’ competitive moats.

Separately, the biggest share gains by Chinese players have been in emerging markets, followed by the European Union, despite US-China markets being perceived as the most contested.

This year, Chinese companies’ market share is highest in emerging markets at 24 per cent, where their aggregate revenue growth has been nearly 15 times faster than organic market growth. In contrast, their market share is lowest in the US at 10 per cent, followed by the EU at 16 per cent, the report found.

In nearly 70 per cent of cases, the Chinese companies entered the international market by pursuing a strategy of “disruptive innovation”, according to Goldman Sachs. This approach meant focusing initially on low-end market segments or emerging markets where demand was price sensitive but usually underserved by the non-Chinese incumbents.

Although the consensus was that Chinese industrial products were more disruptive, Goldman Sachs said consumer products had the highest adoption rate in overseas markets.