Chinese Exports to Vietnam,
Indonesia, Thai up by 20% Average to Counter US Tariffs
‘Exports are being diversified, bit by bit,
and Southeast Asian countries are becoming more and more important trading partners,’
analyst says
Chinese
exports to major industrial centres in Southeast Asia rose by double-digit percentages
in the first five months of the year to satisfy growing consumer markets, feed offshore
factory investments and offset losses from high US tariffs.
Shipments
to factory-magnet Vietnam increased by 18.8 per cent from January to May, compared
with the same period in 2024, according to official data released on Monday
(09.06.2025). Meanwhile, exports to Thailand grew by 20.9 per cent, and Indonesia
took 16.8 per cent more shipments from China. The global increase in Chinese exports
was 6 per cent.
Pressured
by import tariffs imposed by the US, Chinese manufacturers are shipping more to
factory sites in nearby Southeast Asia to make finished goods for sale locally or
in Western countries – including the US itself, according to analysts.
“Exports
are being diversified, bit by bit, and Southeast Asian countries are becoming more
and more important trading partners,” said Zhao Xijun, a finance professor at Renmin
University in Beijing. “Economic and investment relations are becoming ever closer.”
Thailand
and Vietnam are particularly known for factories, some invested in by China, that
make a range of items for re-export – cars and smartphones, for example.
While
some exports may be transshipped from China via Southeast
Asia to avoid US tariffs, analysts said, factories often inject enough local content
into goods from China to declare any re-exports as made in Vietnam, Thailand or
Indonesia.
Indonesia
is a classic case, experts said.
“It
is a mixed picture of Chinese manufacturing exports being some intermediate goods
used as inputs for Indonesia’s manufacturing sector – such as phone parts and auto
parts – and some proportion being finished goods, such as transport equipment and
machinery,” said Rajiv Biswas, CEO of the Asia-Pacific Economics research group
in Singapore.
Chinese
exporters began shifting investments into nearby Southeast Asia after US President
Donald Trump launched a trade war against China during his first term in 2018.
Trump,
in his second term since January, had slapped new tariffs of 145 per cent on China
this year, bringing the effective tariff rate to about 156 per cent. In retaliation,
Beijing imposed 125 per cent levies on US goods in April. Last month, the two sides
called for a 90-day suspension of the highest duties, pending trade talks.
Indonesia
lacks the export manufacturing scale of Vietnam or Thailand, so Chinese exports
there especially raise the question of transshipments, said Jayant Menon, a senior
fellow at the ISEAS – Yusof Ishak Institute in Singapore.
Indonesia
imports Chinese telecom equipment, electronics, textiles, steel and chemicals.
“Since
Trump’s raising of tariffs against China, I see some [Chinese] commodities exported
to the United States via other countries, such as Indonesia, for transshipment,”
said Roseno Aji Affandi, an international relations lecturer
at Bina Nusantara University in Jakarta.
Indonesia’s
bilateral trade surplus with the US reached US$5.4 billion in the first four months
of 2025, US$1 billion higher than in April last year, Asia-Pacific Economics has
calculated.
Most
countries in Southeast Asia face double-digit tariff increases from the US unless
they can swing trade deals with Washington by July 9.
The
Indonesian Ministry of Trade noted a “growing volume of transshipped
goods” in May and vowed to tighten controls over issuing certificates of origin
for exports as a way to stem transshipments, the Indonesian government-run Antara
news agency reported.
Malaysia
and Thailand vowed their own crackdowns on transshipping
last year.
Domestic
markets totalling nearly 700 million people across the 10-member Association of
Southeast Asian Nations (Asean) bloc are buying directly from China, too.
The
bloc has zero-tariff, free-trade agreements with China, plus a fast-growing, increasingly
well-off consumer market, noted Zhao at Renmin University.
The
professor said Chinese exporters may be targeting Southeast Asian consumers partly
to offset US trade barriers.
“The
needs of consumers in Asean are picking up,” Zhao said.