Dollar Dominance Challenged by Gold, Digital
Currency and Crypto Stable Coin
America’s position of global economic
stability is starting to look shakier as the Trump administration piles on debt
and doubles down on sanctions.
·
U.S. financial dominance faces growing challenges as concerns over the $40 trillion debt burden,
sanctions, tariffs and policy uncertainty encourage governments and
investors to seek alternatives.
·
10-year U.S. Treasury yield crossed 5%, the highest since 2007, reflecting increased
investor demand for higher returns amid fiscal concerns.
·
Norway’s sovereign wealth fund plans to reduce its holdings of U.S. Treasuries
and seek alternative investments.
·
Dollar dominance remains strong, with nearly 90% of global foreign-exchange
transactions involving the dollar, but its share of central-bank reserves
declined from 64% in 2015 to 56% in 2025.
·
Alternative payment systems are expanding: China and partner economies are developing the mBridge CBDC platform, while India and
Russia are working on CBDC-based settlement for bilateral trade.
·
Gold is gaining importance: Global official gold reserves surpassed foreign
official holdings of U.S. Treasuries in 2025, while gold prices crossed $5,000
per troy ounce.
·
Gold repatriation is increasing: The Netherlands moved part of its 95-tonne
U.S.-held reserves, while France transferred 129 tonnes from the
Federal Reserve Bank of New York to Paris.
·
U.S. technology faces geopolitical concerns: European governments and companies are
increasingly cautious about dependence on American technology for sensitive
sectors such as AI, amid concerns over future export controls and
sanctions.
·
Overall: The dollar and U.S. markets remain dominant, but
the article highlights a gradual diversification of global reserves,
payments and investments away from exclusive dependence on the United States.
[ABS News Service/16.09.2026]
Global
investors are balking at U.S. bonds. Talk of the dollar’s dwindling power is
getting louder. Foreign governments are hauling their gold out of American
vaults.
Almost
two years into President Trump’s second term, the world economy is increasingly
looking for ways to distance itself from America. Concerns about a $40 trillion
debt burden, the excessive use of sanctions to solve foreign policy problems
and Mr. Trump’s penchant for pushing the limits of the rule of law are raising
questions about the appeal of the United States as a haven for global
investment.
Despite
pledges by foreign companies and nations to invest in the United States — in
many cases to curry favor with the White House —
capital is starting to seek alternative destinations.
“Geopolitical
factors and U.S. weaponization of the dollar through financial sanctions are
causing central banks and other official investors to attempt to diversify away
from dollar assets,” said Eswar Prasad, the former head of the International
Monetary Fund’s China division.
The
United States is not yet an investment pariah. Private investors are still
pouring money into American financial markets and stocks, artificial
intelligence infrastructure is booming and no rival currency is poised to
topple the dollar imminently.
In
testimony before Congress on Tuesday, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said
that he remained confident in the credibility of the U.S. financial system,
arguing that bond auctions continue to operate successfully and that the dollar
is still thriving as measured by its share of global transactions.
“The
U.S. is in fact the leader, and the leader does not fear competition,” Mr.
Bessent said. “Competition makes us better.”
But
cracks in America’s economic dominance are starting to show.
The
most glaring example has been in the bond market. Yields have been soaring as
investors nervous about the mounting national debt demand a higher rate of
return for buying Treasury bonds. This week, the yield on the 10-year Treasury
topped 5 percent, reaching its highest level since 2007.
A
decision to raise rates on Wednesday could help to alleviate concerns about the
Fed’s grip on elevated inflation, fears that have injected more jitters into
bond markets.
The
ominous bond threshold was crossed a week after the Treasury Department
purchased $5.2 billion of its own debt maturing in the next 10 to 20 years,
part of a plan to inject demand into the Treasury market to try to push prices
higher and yields lower. Mr. Bessent said investors were failing to understand
the underlying strength of the economy and dared them to bet against him.
“It’s
my dream,” Mr. Bessent said last week at Southern Methodist University. “I have
asymmetric information. I am the house now.”
With
the United States’ long-term fiscal situation looking shaky, some countries are
starting to wonder if America is a wise investment. This month, Norway’s
sovereign wealth fund, the largest in the world, said it planned to reduce its
holdings of U.S. Treasuries as it looks elsewhere for stronger returns.
And
then there is the future of the dollar.
Nearly
90 percent of global foreign exchange transactions are in dollars. But the
share of dollars being held in central bank reserves has been steadily
declining over the past decade, falling to 56 percent at the end of 2025 from
64 percent in 2015.
Last
year, Christine Lagarde, the president of the European Central Bank, said
erratic policymaking in the United States was setting the stage for a “global
euro moment.”
The
United States has taken advantage of the greenback’s special status to use it
as a foreign policy tool, imposing stiff sanctions on adversaries such as Iran
and Russia. As the United States ramps up its use of sanctions to resolve
global conflicts, the permanence of the dollar as the world’s reserve currency
has come into question with greater frequency.
This
year, the United States tried to start scaling back its sanctions program amid
worries that an overuse of financial warfare was leading other countries to
seek alternatives to the dollar. The dollar is used in most cross-border
financial transactions, so sanctions can essentially cut off a country’s
ability to interact with the Western financial system. Frustrated with how the
United States uses its economic might, more countries are seeking alternative
financial systems that America cannot touch.
However,
Mr. Bessent reversed course in August when he announced Operation Economic
Outcast. The initiative aims to strangle Iran’s economy and threatens secondary
sanctions on any country that maintains economic ties to Tehran. Even the
Treasury secretary acknowledged that if the United States is forced to make
good on that threat, it could “blow up the global financial system.”
Although
the euro and China’s renminbi do not appear ready to overtake the dollar
anytime soon, the emergence of central bank digital currencies, stablecoins and
cryptocurrencies give U.S. adversaries new avenues to circumvent the American
financial system when making international transactions.
China
has been leading the development of a cross-border digital currency platform
with Hong Kong, Thailand, the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia that would
allow money to move more quickly and with lower fees than what is possible with
traditional banking transactions. A similar cross-border payments project led
by some Group of 7 nations and Western financial institutions is also in
development but is not as far along as China’s initiative, which is known as mBridge.
Russia
and India said last week that they are working on a plan that would let them
use central bank digital currencies to settle international trade payments.
Such a mechanism would allow the countries to expand their trade relationship
and reduce reliance on Western financial institutions that can be targeted by
U.S. sanctions.
“The
story of moving away from the dollar is one of the oldest stories that exists,”
said Josh Lipsky, the chair of international economics at the Atlantic Council.
“Countries have thought about working around the dollar, and technology is
making it a little cheaper and easier to do it than before.”
While
some countries are focused on digital money, others are going for the gold as
they fret about the stability of the United States.
In
2025, world international reserves held in gold surpassed foreign official
holdings of U.S. Treasury securities. This year, the price of gold exceeded
$5,000 per troy ounce for the first time in history as central banks stocked up
on the metal amid intensifying global conflicts and concerns over inflation.
Demand
for gold is so high that some countries also want to keep theirs closer to
home. With geopolitical unrest rising and Mr. Trump lobbing tariff threats
against European allies, some have even taken the rare step of relocating the
gold that they keep in vaults at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
This
month, the central bank of the Netherlands said it transferred a large part of
its 95 tons of North American gold reserves out of the United States, citing
“increasing geopolitical unrest” and the need to be prepared for crisis. In
March, the Bank of France said it pulled 129 tons of gold from the Federal
Reserve Bank of New York and moved it to Paris.
The
Trump administration has not threatened to seize foreign gold held in the
United States, but Mr. Trump has raised questions about his views of
international law by floating the idea of colonizing places like Greenland and
Canada.
“It’s
like the countries don’t trust the U.S.,” said Daniel Tannebaum, who served as
the Treasury Department’s Office of Foreign Assets Control compliance
coordinator for the New York Fed. “I do think that there is a fear factor.”
That
fear factor is also creating blowback for American companies that are trying to
do business abroad.
Mr.
Tannebaum, who is a partner in Oliver Wyman’s risk
and public policy practice, said that the aggressive use of tariffs and export
controls by the United States has made European countries and companies wary of
adopting American technology for sensitive industries such as artificial
intelligence. They worry that if they are dependent on the United States for
such infrastructure it could be used against them if Washington decides to ban
or disable the technology, as it has done during disputes with China and Russia.
All
of this has contributed to an erosion of America’s status as a safe haven.
“Governments
and companies now have to ask what would happen if the United States turned its
economic leverage against them,” Mr. Tannebaum said.