Donald Trump Escalates Threats Against Iran; Strait of Hormuz Crisis
Raises Global Energy and War Risks
US leader said he was unsure if the war was
escalating or easing, but warned of sweeping strikes if no deal is reached by Tuesday
at 8pm EST
·
Escalation of Conflict
o
Donald Trump warned of massive strikes on Iran’s
infrastructure if no deal is reached.
o
Claimed Iran could be “taken out in a night”
with rapid military action.
·
Strait of Hormuz at the Center
o
Key demand: reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.
o
Critical route handling ~20% of global oil
supply.
·
Controversial Claims
o
Trump alleged ordinary Iranians want continued
US bombing for “freedom”.
o
Iran strongly rejected these remarks as “arrogant”
and “baseless”.
·
Iran’s Response
o
Leadership mobilising citizens:
§ Calls for
human shields around infrastructure
§ Claims of
14 million volunteers for defense
o
Warned of stronger retaliatory attacks.
·
Ceasefire Efforts Fail
o
Mediation attempts (including by countries like
Pakistan) rejected by Iran.
o
Negotiations ongoing but uncertain.
·
Oil Market Impact
o
West Texas Intermediate:
~$114/barrel
o
Brent Crude: ~$109–111/barrel
o
Prices volatile due to supply disruption fears.
·
Global Economic Risk
o
Potential for:
§ Energy
shock
§ Rising inflation
§ Supply
chain disruptions
o
Experts warn of “worst energy shock in modern
history”.
·
Military Developments
o
US conducted a high-risk rescue mission
inside Iran:
§ Downed
F-15 crew recovered
§ No US
casualties
o
Iran reported casualties among its officers.
·
Geopolitical Tensions
o
Conflict involves US, Iran, and Israel.
o
Criticism of allies:
§ Trump
called NATO a “paper tiger”.
o
Mentioned Vladimir Putin in geopolitical
context.
·
Strategic Uncertainty
o
Experts highlight:
§ Tactical
US success vs unclear long-term strategy
§ Risk of
conflict entering a more dangerous phase
·
Background of Conflict
o
Began with joint US–Israel strikes under Operation
Epic Fury.
o
Iran retaliated by:
§ Attacking
US bases
§ Closing
Strait of Hormuz
·
Overall Outlook
o
Situation remains highly volatile.
o
Key risks:
§ Wider
regional war
§ Prolonged
oil disruption
§ Global
economic instability
US
President Donald Trump has claimed that ordinary Iranians were urging the US to
keep bombing their own country in pursuit of “freedom”, as he renewed his warning
of sweeping strikes on Iran’s critical infrastructure if negotiations fail ahead
of his Tuesday deadline.
Sounding
triumphant after what he described as a “dangerous” operation to rescue a wounded
American pilot from deep inside Iran, Trump on Monday warned that Iran could be
“taken out in a night”, saying US forces had the capability to destroy major facilities
within hours if a deal was not reached in time.
“Complete
demolition by 12 o’clock … over a period of four hours, if we wanted to,” he said,
but added that Washington did not want to pursue that outcome and could instead
help rebuild the country if an agreement was reached.
“We
need to have a deal that’s acceptable to me, and that includes free traffic in the
Strait of Hormuz,” he added.
While
he admitted that he did not know whether the war was winding down or escalating,
Trump alleged that the people of Iran were willing to “suffer” and wanted the US
to keep “dropping” bombs for “freedom”.
“They
would be willing to suffer that in order to have freedom … We’ve had numerous intercepts:
‘please keep bombing’ – bombs that are dropping near their homes. ‘Please keep bombing.
Do it’,” Trump said.
Iran’s
top joint military command condemned Trump’s comments as “rude” and “arrogant rhetoric”,
labelling the threats from a “delusional” president as entirely “baseless”.
On
Tuesday, Iranian officials urged youths to form human chains around power plants
to protect them. Meanwhile, Iran’s President Masoud Pezeshkian announced on X that
14 million Iranians had answered calls to volunteer to fight in case of a ground
invasion by the US and Israel.
“I
too have been, am, and will remain ready to give my life for Iran,” Pezeshkian said.
That
came after Trump took to social media on Sunday to issue a series of expletive-laden
warnings renewing a 48-hour ultimatum, first issued in late March.
He
demanded that Tehran reopen the Strait of Hormuz, a primary artery for the world’s
oil, by Tuesday at 8pm EST (8am Wednesday Hong Kong time), threatening a “rain of
bombs” targeting Iran’s public infrastructure, including power facilities and bridges.
The
price of US crude oil spiked from US$112 to about US$114 per barrel when Trump began
speaking on Monday. Brent, the international oil benchmark, jumped to US$111 per
barrel, dropping to US$109 since.
Trump
told reporters that negotiations were under way and appeared to be conducted in
“good faith”, with support from other countries affected by the conflict.
While
he did not name Pakistan, with the deadline looming, the South Asian ally of the
US floated a ceasefire proposal to halt fighting and reopen the Strait of Hormuz
ahead of 15 to 20 days of talks. Tehran rejected the offer on Monday, warning of
“more crushing” and “more extensive” retaliatory attacks.
“I
can tell you that we have an active, willing participant on the other side,” Trump
said, adding that any deal must guarantee free navigation through the strategic
waterway.
Trump
also took the opportunity to reiterate his displeasure with key allies in Europe
and Asia, calling out Germany, Japan, Australia and South Korea for not helping
the US with the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.
He
said that the over eight-decade-old North Atlantic Treaty Organization, or Nato,
was a “paper tiger”, adding that Russian leader Vladimir Putin was only afraid of
the US and not Nato.
“Putin’s
not afraid of Nato. Putin’s afraid of us, very afraid of us. And he’s explained
it to me a lot of times. I got to know him very well. I know him very well,” he
said.
Experts,
however, offered a cautious assessment of the current situation, distinguishing
between recent operational success and the looming global crisis.
Ali
Wyne, senior research adviser with the International Crisis Group, pointed out that
Trump’s actions could push the regional conflagration into a “dangerous new phase”
and exacerbate the “worst energy shock in modern history”.
“America’s
record in the Middle East over the past quarter-century underscores that overwhelming
military force rarely produces the intended political results,” Wyne said. “Public
bravado betrays anxiety, not confidence.”
Ian
Lesser of the German Marshall Fund of the United States, noted that while Trump
leveraged the “extraordinary” rescue, which could have “tremendous political mileage”
for him, the speech offered little strategic clarity.
“It
did not clarify at all the bigger issues regarding the future of the conflict and
what happens next. He issued additional threats, but those were known,” Lesser said.
“A
tactical victory, no question,” he added, but “strategically, a big open question.”
Samantha
Gross of the Brookings Institution warned that the world has only begun to feel
the economic brunt of the conflict in Iran.
“As
the world works through this oil and feels the full brunt of the disruption, I would
expect prices for both oil and LNG to rise further,” she said.
Regarding
the Tuesday deadline, Gross said it was difficult to judge how Iran would respond.
“The
Strait of Hormuz and lobbing missiles and drones at their neighbours are the most
potent weapons Iran has, harming the US and the world economically. I believe they
will use these weapons until the war ends,” she contended.
Appearing
alongside Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth, Joint Chiefs chairman Dan Caine and CIA
Director John Ratcliffe, Trump described the rescue of two crew members from a downed
F-15 jet in Iran as a “massive” and “historic” operation.
“It
was a breathtaking show of force and precision,” Trump said, adding that both the
pilot and weapons officer were recovered without American casualties.
Ratcliffe
indicated that as part of this weekend’s rescue operations, his agency ran “a deception
campaign to confuse the Iranians who were desperately hunting for our airmen”.
“Our
intelligence reflects that the Iranians were embarrassed and ultimately humiliated
by the success of this audacious rescue mission,” he added.
Hegseth
echoed the words of the president and said that “Iran has a choice. Choose wisely,
because this president doesn’t joke around”.
Later,
Iran’s semi-official Fars news agency reported that four Iranian army officers were
killed in the central Isfahan province during the rescue operation.
These
remarks follow intense speculation regarding Trump’s health after he vanished from
the public eye over the weekend. The White House dismissed these concerns, attributing
his absence to his oversight of what the administration described as a “high-risk”
rescue mission.
The
conflict began on February 28, when the US and Israel launched a series of surprise
joint air strikes – dubbed Operation Epic Fury – targeting Iran’s top leadership,
military infrastructure, and nuclear sites, killing Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah
Ali Khamenei. Khamenei’s son, Mojtaba Khamenei, has succeeded his late father as
ruler.
Iran
retaliated by attacking US military bases in the region and closing the Strait of
Hormuz. The measure has sent global energy prices skyrocketing and shaken international
markets, leaving many Asian and African nations vulnerable to energy shortages.
Trump
has claimed that the US has “completely decimated” Iran’s military, asserting that
its radar and air defences were “100 per cent annihilated”.
Last
week, in a televised address to the nation, the US president said that the “core
objectives” of the operation were “nearing completion” and that he needed “two to
three weeks” to push Iran back to the “Stone Ages, where they belong”.