Global Shipping Costs Surge Amid Iran War-Induced Fuel Crisis

Shipping lines say they have no choice but to pass on steep cost rises, as the Iran war sparks a fuel crisis that could last well into next year

Key Points

1. Container freight rates are rising sharply worldwide

o Shanghai Containerised Freight Index (SCFI) nearly doubled from 1,333.11 in February to 2,571.73.

o Drewry World Container Index increased from US$1,899 to US$2,800 per 40-foot container.

2. Closure of the Strait of Hormuz has triggered a global fuel shock

o Disruptions to oil flows have significantly increased marine fuel costs.

o Shipping companies are facing substantial operating cost pressures.

3. Marine fuel prices have surged

o Very Low Sulphur Fuel Oil (VLSFO) prices at major bunkering hubs rose by US$256 per tonne since early March.

o Average VLSFO prices reached US$843.5 per tonne.

4. Shipping lines are passing costs on to customers

o Carriers are introducing fuel surcharges and higher freight rates.

o Additional fuel expenses are making current operations financially challenging for shipping firms.

5. Freight rates expected to rise further

o Peak shipping season demand and continued fuel shortages are likely to keep rates elevated.

o Industry analysts expect upward pressure on shipping costs in the coming months.

6. Oil prices may remain high even if the conflict eases

o Marine fuel supplier Dan-Bunkering expects crude oil prices to remain between US$80–100 per barrel in the second half of 2026.

7. Energy supply normalization could take until 2027

o ADNOC estimates that global oil flows may not fully recover until Q1–Q2 2027.

8. Global businesses face higher costs

o Rising freight and fuel expenses are increasing transportation and supply-chain costs.

o Manufacturers, retailers, and importers are likely to experience higher input and delivery costs.

9. Trade and inflation risks are growing

o Elevated shipping costs could reduce export competitiveness and contribute to inflationary pressures across economies.

Conclusion

The US–Israel war on Iran has evolved into a major global shipping and energy crisis, with higher fuel prices and freight rates expected to increase business costs, disrupt trade, and pressure global supply chains well into 2027.

[ABS News Service/01.06.2026]

Businesses around the world are confronting a painful – and potentially long-lasting – rise in costs amid the US-Israel war on Iran, as global shipping firms introduce steep price increases to offset a mounting fuel crisis.

In Shanghai, one of the world’s busiest ports, the price of shipping a container has already surged dramatically since the start of the war, according to the Shanghai Containerised Freight Index – a gauge tracking spot rates across 13 global trade lanes out of the city.

The index has nearly doubled from 1,333.11 points at the end of February to 2,571.73 on Friday, meaning that prices have increased from about 1.3 times the benchmark level set in 2009 to more than 2.5 times that level.

A similar trend is visible in another major benchmark: maritime consultancy Drewry’s World Container Index, which monitors freight rates across East-West sailing routes.

Spot rates have been climbing for four consecutive weeks and now stand at US$2,800 per 40-foot container, up from US$1,899 in late February, according to Drewry data released on Thursday (28.05.2026).

Prices are expected to rise further in the coming weeks, according to Drewry, as the early peak season for global shipping approaches and the fuel crisis continues with no end in sight.

Shipping firms have been hit particularly hard by the global energy shock triggered by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, with the price of very low sulphur fuel oil (VLSFO) – the fuel used by most commercial vessels – rising even faster than Brent crude prices in recent months.

Average VLSFO prices at the top 20 global bunkering hubs – where ships refuel – reached US$843.5 per tonne on Friday, a US$256 increase from March 2, according to data from trade media outlet Ship & Bunker.

“We are looking at an extra cost bill of half a billion dollars a month,” Vincent Clerc, CEO of shipping giant Maersk, told CNN in early May. The company had to pass on the extra costs, otherwise it would be “completely unsustainable for us”, he added.

Even if the Strait of Hormuz reopens, it may take longer for fuel prices to drop than many expect, marine fuel supplier and trader Dan-Bunkering warned in a report last week.

“We expect oil prices to be in the US$80 to US$100 [per barrel] range in the third and fourth quarters, assuming the Strait of Hormuz has reopened,” Dan-Bunkering said. “That is far above the level before the war.”

Oil giant ADNOC said in mid-May that even if the war ended now, oil flows would not be fully restored until the first – or possibly even the second – quarter of 2027.