1.
Precious
metals became a major share of U.S. exports
Gold, silver, and platinum exports rose sharply as a share of total U.S.
exports:
o 2022: 4.2%
o 2023: 4.7%
o 2024: 4.6%
o 2025: 4.3%
o Jan–Feb 2026: 12.7%
2.
Howard
Lutnick claimed Trump policies boosted exports
Howard Lutnick stated that U.S. exports rose over 6% in 2025 while imports and
the trade deficit declined.
3.
Import
and trade deficit claims were inaccurate
Official data from the United States Census Bureau showed:
o imports increased from $4.1 trillion to
$4.3 trillion,
o and the trade deficit remained broadly
unchanged rather than “dramatically reduced.”
4.
Export
growth figure was broadly correct
Total U.S. exports increased from $3.23 trillion to $3.43 trillion in 2025,
representing approximately 6.2% growth.
5.
Most
export growth came from precious metals shipments
Around $68 billion of the $117 billion increase in goods exports came from
shipments of:
o gold,
o platinum,
o silver,
rather than traditional manufactured or agricultural goods.
6.
Large
quantities of gold left U.S. vaults
The increase included exports of roughly:
o 260 tons of gold,
o 17 tons of platinum,
shipped mainly to:
o London,
o Zurich,
o Hong Kong.
7.
Precious
metals overtook traditional export sectors in 2026
By February 2026, precious metals became the single largest U.S. export
category, surpassing:
o energy,
o agriculture,
o aircraft,
o automotive products,
o semiconductors,
o chemicals.
8.
February
2026 export breakdown highlighted the shift
February goods exports totaled $195.1 billion,
including:
o Precious metals: $29.4 billion
o Energy: $25.2 billion
o Chemicals: $16 billion
o Agriculture: $14.7 billion
o Airplanes: $12.2 billion
9.
Trend
suggests financial unease rather than industrial strength
The export surge appears linked less to production growth and more to:
o rising precious metal prices,
o investor preference for gold over stocks
or dollars,
o concerns about financial stability.
10. Central banks may be repatriating assets
Some governments and institutions may be moving gold reserves abroad because of
concerns that the United States is becoming a less secure location for storing
valuable assets.
11. Federal Reserve data shows a ‘hockey
stick’ increase
The Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis reportedly illustrated the rapid
acceleration in gold shipments through a sharply rising trend graph.
12. Trade data raises questions about economic
interpretation
While export totals rose, analysts argue the increase may reflect:
·
capital
movement,
·
safe-haven
demand,
·
and
declining confidence,
rather than stronger U.S. industrial competitiveness.
|
2026 |
12.70% |
|
2025 |
4.30% |
|
2024 |
4.60% |
|
2023 |
4.70% |
|
2022 |
4.20% |
Asking the Senate for budget money late last month, Howard
Lutnick claims the
administration's first-year policy adventures "dramatically reduced the
trade deficit, lowered imports, and increased exports to over $3.4 trillion, a
6% increase from 2024."
Mr.
Lutnick’s stats are rarely precise, and no exception here. Four factual claims
in twenty words, two of them wrong, two right.
The
errors are on imports and balance, and pretty easy to clear up. Each month, the
Census Bureau — a branch of Mr. L’s Department! — publishes the official U.S. trade data. Their most recent report shows that
imports rose from $4.1 trillion to $4.3 trillion rather than getting
"lower." Vis-ŕ-vis trade balance, the 2025 deficit was down by 0.2%
if you combine goods and services, or up by 2.0% if you count goods alone.
Reasonable people can debate whether this is “very slightly down,” “a little
bit up,” or “essentially the same.” But either way, it isn’t “dramatic.”
The
points about export growth are more interesting — factually correct, but in a
strange and unsettling way. The figures, if you look at them in a little
detail, turn out mainly to be a sharp rise in transfers of precious metal
abroad. That in turn suggests less a useful jump in selling things to
foreigners than financial unease, fading confidence, and maybe an exotic form
of capital flight. Background –
The
Census Bureau statisticians say that last year, American exports (goods and
services combined) rose from $3.23 trillion to $3.43 trillion. That, as Mr.
Lutnick says, is 6%, or more precisely 6.2%. This makes 2025 exactly the
21st-century median year for export growth, and a bit below the long-term 7.2%
export growth average since 1960.
In
most cases, a modestly higher export number may be dull, but it means Americans
are selling more cars, airplanes, and soybeans abroad, getting more software
downloads and movie screenings, etc., and/or that prices have gone up a bit.
There’s some of both involved in last year’s figures, but neither
farm-and-factory goods nor inflation is the main story. About two thirds of
last year’s goods export growth — $68 billion of $117 billion — comes not from
ships full of grain, LNG tankers, ro/ros stacked with cars, planes delivering semiconductors to
waiting factories, and so forth, but the physical shipment of about 260 tons of
gold from U.S. vaults under Wall Street, along with 17 tons of platinum and
lots of silver, to London, Zurich, and Hong Kong.
Early
data for 2026 show this accelerating. Precious metals (HTS 72) typically make
up about 4% of U.S. export values, and reached 7% over the course of 2025. By
last February — the most recent month for which full data are up on the USITC's
Dataweb
— they had reached 15%, overtaking energy, airplanes, agriculture, cars,
chemicals, and other big items as the single largest U.S. export. (Yesterday's
Census trade release adds March figures, and appears about the same.) The jump
— the St. Louis Fed presents gold shipments as a classic “hockey stick” graph – appears to reflect a combination of
(a) higher prices, (b) investors guessing that precious metals may be better
bets than stocks or dollars, and (c) central banks “repatriating” assets,
likely thinking the U.S. isn’t as safe a place to hold valuable things as was a
couple of years ago. A quick table of February's top exports:
|
Total February 2026 goods exports |
$195.1 billion |
|
Gold, silver, platinum, precious metal
products (HTS 72) |
$29.4 billion |
|
Energy |
$25.2 billion |
|
Chemicals (excluding pharmaceuticals) |
$16.0 billion |
|
Agriculture (USDA definition) |
$14.7 billion |
|
Airplanes |
$12.2 billion |
|
Automotive (vehicles and parts) |
$10.0 billion |
|
Semiconductors |
$7.0 billion |
|
Pharmaceuticals |
$6.9 billion |
So Mr. Lutnick was off on imports and balances. He did get
export growth right, though, even though most of it seems to be money leaving
the country. And he may well be right to say that Trump administration policies
are at least in part responsible. As to whether that’s something to boast about.