Demand for AI-related products helped drive
a 64.9 per cent surge year on year in the value of September shipments
o Hong Kong's GDP grew by 5.2% year-on-year in Q3 2026,
marking the 15th consecutive quarter of economic expansion.
o GDP growth for the first nine months of
2026 stood at 5.1%,
the fastest growth for this period in five years.
o Quarterly GDP growth:
§ Q1 2026: 5.9%.
§ Q2 2026: 4.2%.
§ Q3 2026: 5.2%.
o On a seasonally adjusted basis, GDP
increased by 1.9%
quarter-on-quarter.
2. Major Drivers of Growth in Q3
o Goods exports increased by 30.4% in real terms
year-on-year.
o Services exports grew by 4.3%.
o Private consumption expenditure rose by 2.8%, compared with 2.9%
in Q2.
o Overall investment expenditure increased
by 7.3%.
3. Sharp Increase in Merchandise Exports
o September exports surged by 64.9% year-on-year to HK$762.6 billion
(US$97.19 billion).
o This was the fastest monthly increase in
more than 40 years.
o Strong demand for artificial
intelligence-related products supported export growth.
4. Full-Year GDP Growth Forecast
o In August, Hong Kong upgraded its 2026 GDP
growth forecast to 3.5–4.5%,
from the earlier 2.5–3.5%.
o Financial Secretary Paul Chan Mo-po
indicated that the economy could record its strongest annual growth in five
years.
o The revised full-year economic forecast is
scheduled for 13 November
2026.
5. Retail Sales Growth
o Retail sales increased by 6.4% year-on-year to HK$33.4 billion in
September 2026.
o September marked the 17th consecutive
month of retail sales growth.
o Retail sales during January–September 2026
increased by 8.3%.
o Monthly retail sales growth:
§ July: 4.5%.
§ August: 5.6%.
§ September: 6.4%.
6. Retail Sales: Sector-wise Performance
o Highest growth:
§ Jewellery, watches, clocks and valuable
gifts: +20.3%.
§ Optical shops: +14.6%.
o Sharpest declines:
§ Motor vehicles and parts: -34.7%.
§ Department stores: -4.1%.
7. Factors Supporting Retail Growth
o Higher tourist arrivals.
o Festive purchases associated with the
earlier Mid-Autumn Festival.
o Better weather supporting retailers
catering to local consumers.
o Hong Kong Retail Management Association
survey found that 75% of respondents reported year-on-year sales growth in
September.
8. Retail Industry Outlook
o Despite broad-based growth, performance
remains uneven across retail categories.
o The Hong Kong Retail Management
Association maintained its forecast of single-digit retail sales growth for
2026.
Key Takeaway: Hong
Kong's economy is showing strong momentum, with Q3 GDP growth of 5.2% driven
primarily by a 30.4% rise in goods exports. AI-related export demand, improving
domestic consumption and 17 consecutive months of retail sales growth point
towards a potentially five-year high in annual economic growth in 2026.
[ABS News Service/03.11.2026]
Hong
Kong’s economy grew by 5.2 per cent year on year in the third quarter, marking its
15th consecutive quarter of expansion, while retail sales rose by 6.4 per cent in
September.
For
the first three quarters combined, the economy expanded by 5.1 per cent, its fastest
growth for the period in five years, advance estimates released by the Census and
Statistics Department on Tuesday showed.
This
compared with increases of 4.2 per cent in the second quarter and 5.9 per cent in
the first.
On
a seasonally adjusted basis, gross domestic product (GDP) rose by 1.9 per cent from
the previous quarter.
“The
Hong Kong economy expanded robustly in the third quarter of 2026, underpinned by
accelerating growth in exports and solid domestic demand,” a government spokesman
said.
Goods
exports rose by 30.4 per cent year on year in real terms, while exports of services
increased by 4.3 per cent.
Private
consumption expenditure grew by 2.8 per cent, against 2.9 per cent in the second
quarter, while overall investment expenditure rose by 7.3 per cent.
The
figures came days after Financial Secretary Paul Chan Mo-po said Hong Kong could
record its strongest annual economic growth in five years, raising the prospect
of a further upgrade to the government’s forecast.
In
August, authorities raised their full-year growth forecast to between 3.5 and 4.5
per cent, up from between 2.5 and 3.5 per cent, following a stronger-than-expected
first half. The economy expanded by 5.1 per cent in the first six months. The revised
full-year forecast is due on November 13.
Exports
remained strong in the third quarter. The value of shipments in September surged
by 64.9 per cent year on year to HK$762.6 billion (US$97.19 billion), the fastest
monthly increase in more than four decades, supported by demand for artificial intelligence-related
products.
Separate
figures released on Tuesday showed retail sales totalled HK$33.4 billion in September,
up by 6.4 per cent compared with the same month last year.
Sales
in the first nine months rose by 8.3 per cent from a year earlier.
September’s
increase followed growth of 5.6 per cent in August and 4.5 per cent in July.
A
government spokesperson said September was the 17th consecutive month of retail
sales growth, helped by higher visitor arrivals and festive buying linked to the
earlier Mid-Autumn Festival.
“Growth
in sales was broad-based across many types of retail outlets, reflecting solid local
consumption sentiment in general,” he said.
Jewellery,
watches and clocks, and valuable gifts recorded the fastest growth, at 20.3 per
cent, followed by optical shops at 14.6 per cent.
Motor
vehicles and parts suffered the steepest decline, down by 34.7 per cent, while department
store sales fell 4.1 per cent.
The
Hong Kong Retail Management Association previously said 75 per cent of respondents
to its survey reported year-on-year sales growth in September, with better weather
supporting retailers serving local customers.
But
the association cautioned that uneven performance across categories showed the sector
had yet to fully recover. It maintained its forecast for single-digit sales growth
this year.