Hormuz Blockade Casts Shadow Over Trump Xi Meet in
May
US president’s move forces China into political
dilemma and could create a flashpoint ahead of his meeting with Chinese leader,
analysts say
1. Core
Issue
·
Donald Trump’s threat to blockade the Strait of
Hormuz has created a major geopolitical dilemma for China.
·
It risks disrupting energy supplies and complicating
diplomacy ahead of a possible Trump–Xi summit.
2. Why
Hormuz Matters to China
·
The strait carries:
o
~25% of global oil trade
o
~20% of LNG supply
·
China’s dependence:
o
42% of crude oil imports from
Gulf countries
o
~12% from Iran
o
~1/3 of LNG from the Middle East (notably
Qatar)
➡️ Any disruption directly
threatens China’s energy security and economy.
3.
China’s “Political Dilemma”
·
Beijing has tried to maintain strategic
neutrality between:
o
United States
o
Iran
·
The blockade forces a choice:
o
Support U.S. → risk ties with Iran
o
Support Iran → risk conflict with U.S.
➡️ This undermines China’s balancing strategy.
4.
Economic Risks
·
Disruption could:
o
Hit Chinese supply chains
o
Raise energy costs
o
Affect trade with Gulf nations (key export markets)
·
Chinese firms also rely on:
o
“Grey networks” (shadow tankers, yuan payments)
for Iranian oil
o
These now face higher risk under U.S. naval
enforcement
5.
Escalation Risks
·
Iran has warned:
o
If its ports are threatened, no regional port
will be safe
·
Potential flashpoints:
o
Detention of Chinese-linked vessels
o
Broader naval confrontation in the Gulf
6.
Strategic Intent of the U.S.
·
Analysts suggest the U.S. aims to:
o
Cut Iran’s oil revenues
o
Prevent Iran from charging tolls in the strait
·
Also possibly
a negotiation tactic:
o
Use pressure before Trump’s planned meeting with Xi
Jinping
o
Seek concessions on:
§ Trade
§ Rare
earths
§ Iran
policy
7. Impact
on Trump–Xi Summit
·
Planned visit (mid-May) now uncertain.
·
Risks:
o
China may view blockade as coercion
o
Could derail fragile trade stabilisation efforts
·
Outcome may depend on:
o
Whether the Hormuz crisis is resolved in time
Bottom
Line
The Hormuz crisis is no longer just a Middle East
issue—it has become a global geopolitical lever:
·
For the U.S.: a tool of strategic pressure
·
For China: a test of energy security and
diplomatic balance
➡️ If tensions persist, it could reshape
U.S.–China relations and disrupt global energy markets simultaneously.
Donald
Trump’s threat to blockade the Strait of Hormuz “forces Beijing into a political
dilemma” and could potentially derail the US president’s coming summit with Chinese
counterpart Xi Jinping, analysts said.
After
talks in Pakistan between the US and Iran ended without a deal on Sunday, Trump
said in a social media post that the US would seal off the strategically vital chokepoint.
In
a narrower order issued later, the US military said American forces would blockade
only “maritime traffic entering and exiting Iranian ports”.
The
order said that this would begin on Monday at 10am, Washington time. The measure
applies to all Iranian ports along the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman.
The
order said US forces would “not impede” vessels travelling to or from non-Iranian
ports.
Around
a quarter of global seaborne oil exports and about a fifth of the world’s supply
of liquefied natural gas pass through the strait. Tehran enforced a near total closure
of the strait after US-Israeli strikes on Iran began on February 28, triggering
an energy crisis.
On
Monday, Iran said ports in the Persian Gulf and the Sea of Oman were “either for
everyone or for no one”.
“If
the security of the ports of the Islamic Republic of Iran is threatened, no port
in the Persian Gulf and the Sea of Oman will be safe,” a spokesman for the country’s
highest operational military command said.
Shipping
in the Strait of Hormuz has ground to a halt again following Trump’s announcement,
reversing a small uptick in traffic seen on Saturday – when the US and Iran held
their first direct negotiations since 1979, in Pakistan’s capital Islamabad.
In
response to Trump’s latest threat, Beijing has urged all parties to remain calm
and restrained, stressing that the war is the “root cause” of the disruption of
navigation.
China
hopes the parties will abide by the temporary ceasefire arrangements and “avoid
reigniting the flames of war”, foreign ministry spokesman Guo Jiakun said on Monday.
A
double blockade would lead to “a complete shutdown” in the strait, which would undoubtedly
hurt China’s massive interests in the area, said Jin Liangxiang, a senior fellow
at the Shanghai Institutes for International Studies.
The
blockade risked affecting China’s supply chains, energy security and trade with
Gulf nations, which are an important market for Chinese exports, Jin noted.
The
Gulf states supplied 42 per cent of Chinese crude oil imports last year, according
to customs data. Separately, about 12 per cent of Chinese crude oil imports came
from Iran, according to analytics firm Kpler.
In
addition, China sources one-third of its LNG from the Middle East, with Qatar supplying
as much as 28 per cent.
Beyond
the economic hit, the blockade “forces Beijing into a political dilemma it has spent
the entire war trying to avoid”, said Jesse Marks, founder of Rihla Research and Advisory, a Washington-based consultancy
focused on the Middle East.
“The
longer the blockade holds, the harder it becomes for China to maintain its posture
of strategic ambiguity between Washington and Tehran.”
Trump’s
order aims to “reverse engineer Iran’s weaponisation of the strait by severing Tehran’s
ability to export oil and collect tolls”, Marks argued.
Following
the April 7 two-week ceasefire agreement between Washington and Tehran, Iranian
officials had raised the idea of charging a toll
for using the strait, according to Reuters.
“If
Iran normalises tolling even partially, it reshapes the economics of Gulf energy
transit permanently and gives Tehran a revenue stream independent of oil exports.
That is what the US is actually trying to prevent,” Marks said.
Marks
added that if Washington delivered on its promise to allow the transit of non-Iranian
ships, including Chinese ships, the US could “flip the narrative” and frame itself
as the guarantor of free navigation.
Iran
stressed on Monday that the strait would remain closed to vessels “affiliated with
the enemy”.
Earlier
reports show that ships linked to US allies such as the Philippines, as well as
Chinese and Pakistani vessels, have been able to transit the channel.
Another
issue to watch for was if Chinese-flagged vessels carrying Iranian oil were directly
interdicted, Marks said.
China
has reportedly sustained its Iranian oil trade through a “grey network” of shadow
tankers, ship-to-ship transfers and yuan-based payments specifically designed to
circumvent US sanctions, according to Marks.
Beijing
has repeatedly denied such allegations and says bilateral trade is conducted within
the framework of international law.
“That
whole network now will be forced to operate inside an active US naval enforcement
zone. The blockade makes the detention of a Chinese-linked vessel far more probable,”
Marks said, adding that this was likely to create a “flashpoint”
weeks before next month’s expected Trump-Xi summit in Beijing.
Trump
has said he will visit China on May 14 and 15, the first such trip by a US president
in nearly 10 years.
Launching
a blockade that directly threatened Chinese energy interests 30 days before sitting
down with Xi in Beijing might be a negotiating tactic, Marks said.
“He
wants to walk into the summit with a chokehold on something China needs, so he can
trade relief for concessions on rare earths, trade terms or political cooperation
on Iran,” Marks noted, adding that the risk was that Beijing would read this as
coercive, narrowing the space for diplomacy.
Both
Washington and Beijing needed to find a way to compartmentalise the Iran conflict
before it derailed their trade truce and the stabilisation efforts the two sides
had been building since the Busan summit last October, he said.
Jin
in Shanghai said the prospects for the summit hinged on Trump’s perceived success
in the Iran crisis.
“If
the Strait of Hormuz crisis has not yet been resolved, the likelihood of Trump visiting
China will certainly be lower,” he said, while adding that Trump’s domestic calculus
for the visit had been primarily shaped by trade ties with Beijing and the pressure
of the coming midterm elections.
Beijing
has yet to confirm the visit.