·
Blockade
announced: The Iran-backed Houthi militia has declared a
blockade of shipping linked to Saudi
Arabia through the Bab
al-Mandab Strait, a critical maritime chokepoint connecting the
Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden.
·
Shipping
continues but risks are rising:
Despite the announcement, dozens
of vessels continue to transit the strait, although uncertainty
over security has increased significantly.
·
Ships
reversing course: According to maritime data firm Kpler,
nearly a dozen ships
have turned back from the Bab al-Mandab Strait since the blockade was
announced, reflecting growing concern among shipping companies.
·
Attacks
on vessels: At least three oil tankers were attacked in the Red
Sea during the week.
o On Friday,
a Saudi-owned tanker
sustained hull damage after being targeted.
o The crew remained safe, and the vessel
continued its voyage.
·
Tracking
difficulties: Maritime intelligence firm Windward reports that
more ships are switching
off their location transponders (AIS) to reduce the risk of
being identified and targeted by the Houthis, making it harder to assess actual
shipping activity.
·
Traffic
has not yet collapsed: Shipping data indicate
that 43 ships crossed the
Bab al-Mandab Strait on Thursday, compared with 35 ships on Wednesday,
suggesting that commercial traffic has not yet been significantly disrupted.
·
Impact
of Strait of Hormuz disruption: Since
the outbreak of the U.S.-Iran conflict, the Strait of Hormuz has remained largely
constrained, forcing Saudi Arabia to:
o Transport crude oil via its East-West pipeline from
the Persian Gulf to the Red Sea.
o Export the oil through the Bab al-Mandab Strait,
which is now also under threat.
·
Alternative
routes are costly: Some shipping companies are considering
rerouting through the Suez
Canal, but this presents several challenges:
o Longer and more expensive voyages.
o The canal cannot accommodate fully loaded supertankers.
o Oil often must be transferred through
pipelines or onto smaller vessels, increasing costs and logistical complexity.
·
Global
oil supply at risk: According to Windward, disruptions around
both the Strait of Hormuz
and the Bab al-Mandab
Strait now place about
25% of the world's oil supply at risk.
·
Oil
prices respond: Growing geopolitical tensions pushed Brent crude oil prices
to around $100 per barrel,
the highest level in approximately two months.
·
The Bab al-Mandab Strait has
become a critical alternative export route after disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz. Any
sustained Houthi blockade could significantly affect Middle East oil exports.
·
Simultaneous
threats to two of the world's most important maritime chokepoints increase the
risk of:
o Higher global energy prices.
o Increased freight and insurance costs.
o Delays in international trade.
o Greater volatility in global energy and
commodity markets.
·
If
attacks intensify and commercial shipping declines substantially, the
disruption could have broad economic consequences, particularly for Asian economies, which
are major importers of Middle Eastern crude oil.
[ABS News Service/25.07.2026]
Days
after the Iranian-backed Houthi militia announced the blockade of a vital shipping
passage through the Red Sea, dozens of ships continue to make the journey, according
to a review of shipping data.
But
with each hour that passes, uncertainty about the safety of the journey grows. Vessels
have been making U-turns, in some cases reversing their courses on trips that were
meant to stretch to India, China and other parts of the globe. In at least three
instances this week, oil tankers have been attacked in the Red Sea, including one
attack reported late Friday.
If
the blockade succeeds in hampering shipping activity, it will be another blow to
global trade already damaged by the widening conflict in the Middle East. As the
United States and Iran have escalated their attacks in a war now in its fifth month,
the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow waterway next to Iran that had long been the conduit
for a fifth of the world’s oil supply, has remained largely cut off.
In
recent months, Saudi Arabia has rerouted millions of barrels of oil per day via
a pipeline that stretches from the Persian Gulf to the Red Sea. Most of that oil
makes its way out of the region through the Bab al-Mandab Strait, off the coast
of Yemen and near territory controlled by the Houthis.
That
pathway was put at risk on Monday, when the militia announced that it would blockade
ship activity from Saudi Arabia, the world’s largest oil exporter.
Nearly
a dozen ships — trying either to leave the Red Sea or to enter the area — have turned
back from the strait since then, according to Kpler, a maritime data firm.
It
is difficult to get a full picture of shipping traffic in the area, with more ships
turning off their location transponders to obscure their positions from the Houthis,
said Michelle Wiese Bockmann, an analyst at Windward, a maritime intelligence firm.
And
some data suggests that activity through the Bab al-Mandab Strait has increased
this week despite Houthi aggression. On Thursday, Kpler
found, 43 ships crossed the strait, up from 35 the day before, when the Houthis
claimed they had targeted two Saudi oil tankers with missiles and drones.
On
Friday, the hull of a Saudi-owned vessel was damaged after being targeted in the
Red Sea, Saudi officials said. The vessel and crew were safe, and the ship appeared
to continue traveling.
This
is not the first time the Houthis have disrupted activity in the Red Sea. In 2024,
they regularly attacked ships there with links to Israel in what the militia described
as an effort to force Israel to end its bombardment of Gaza.
Now,
seeking an alternative, some shippers are moving north toward the Suez Canal, Kpler said. But that route to Asia — the buyer of much of the
region’s oil — is much costlier and longer. And the canal is too shallow for fully
loaded supertankers, so oil has to be transferred to a
pipeline before returning to tankers or transported onto smaller ships, straining
availability of those types of vessels.
As
a result of rising tensions in the Red Sea, on top of diminished activity around
the Strait of Hormuz and elsewhere, about 25 percent of the world’s oil supply is
now imperiled, Ms. Wiese Bockmann said. “It’s quite a
volatile situation,” she said.
This
week, prices of Brent crude oil, the international benchmark, jumped to around $100
a barrel — a level not seen in roughly two months.