India, China Lead in
Russian Oil Import as US Throttles Payment Gateways
Russia’s
invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 led to severe bans or restrictions on Russian
oil from the West. Meanwhile, other nations—including China, India, and Türkiye—opted to deepen trade ties with the country.
This
graphic from the Hinrich Foundation is the final visualization in a three-part series
covering the future of trade. It provides visual context to the growing divide among
countries shunning Russian oil versus those taking advantage of the excess supply.
Which
Countries Have Decreased or Banned Russian Oil Imports?
This
analysis uses data from the IEA’s February 2024 Oil Market Report on Russian oil
exports from 2021 to 2023.
Following
the invasion, both the U.S. and the UK enacted a complete ban on Russian crude.
Imports dropped from 600,000 barrels per day (bpd) in 2021 to zero by late-2022.
|
Country/Region |
2021 (bpd) |
2022 (bpd) |
2023 (bpd) |
Change; 2021-2023 (bpd) |
|
EU |
3.3M |
3.0M |
600K |
-2.7M |
|
UK & U.S. |
600K |
100K |
0 |
-600K |
|
OECD Asia |
500K |
200K |
0 |
-500K |
Similarly, the EU, which has historically been more reliant on oil from
Russia, dropped imports by over 80%, from 3.3 million bpd in 2021 to 600,000 bpd
in 2023.
OECD
Asia-Pacific—which includes Japan, South Korea, Australia, and New Zealand—also
slashed their Russian oil imports.
Which
Countries Have Increased Imports of Russian Oil?
The
pullback in demand for Russian crude from the West created a buying opportunity
for countries and regions that chose not to support Western sanctions.
|
Country/Region |
2021 (bpd) |
2022 (bpd) |
2023 (bpd) |
Change; 2021-2023 (bpd) |
|
India |
100K |
900K |
1.9M |
+1.8M |
|
China |
1.6M |
1.9M |
2.3M |
+700K |
|
Türkiye |
200K |
400K |
700K |
+500K |
|
Africa |
100K |
100K |
400K |
+300K |
|
Middle East |
100K |
200K |
300K |
+200K |
|
Latin America |
100K |
100K |
200K |
+100K |
|
Other |
800K |
600K |
900K |
+100K |
India increased its imports of oil from Russia, by the largest amount
from 2021 to 2023—up to 1.9 million bpd from only 100,000 bpd.
China,
the biggest net importer, also saw a large uptick. The country boosted imports for
Russian oil by over 40% over this timeframe. Türkiye increased
imports of Russian crude by an additional 500,000 bpd.
Several
other regions—such as Africa, the Middle East, and Latin America—saw slight upticks
in imports.
Shifting
Trade Dependencies
The
dynamics present in the global crude market underscore broader trends in Russia’s
trade relationships. Russia is becoming increasingly less economically reliant on
the West and more reliant on China.
From
2022 to 2023, the largest upward shift in the UNCTAD’s bilateral trade dependency estimates was
Russia’s increased reliance upon China (+7.1%).
|
Dependent |
Depending On |
Annual Change |
|
Russia |
China |
+7.1% |
|
Ukraine |
EU |
+5.8% |
|
Brazil |
China |
+3.0% |
Note:
Trade dependencies are calculated by UNCTAD as the ratio of two countries’ bilateral
trade over the total trade of the dependent economy.
In
fact, China threw a lifeline to Russia in the aftermath of the Ukraine invasion.
The Atlantic Council reported that Chinese exports to Russia have grown 121% since
2021, while exports to the rest of the world have increased by only 29% in the same
period.
In
contrast, Russia also exhibited a large decrease in reliance on the EU (-5.3%).
South Korea and the U.S. have made shifts to further distance themselves from China
as geopolitical tensions continue to mount.
|
Dependent |
Depending On |
Annual Change |
|
Russia |
EU |
-5.3% |
|
South Korea |
China |
-1.2% |
|
U.S. |
China |
-1.2% |
As
the Russian oil market shows, geopolitical tensions have the potential to significantly
impact trade. Though Russian crude exports remained steady amid the conflict, this
necessitated a shift in its main trading partners.