Iran Ships Move through Hormuz as Trump Orders
Blockade
The vessels exited the Strait of Hormuz on
Monday, hours before a U.S. naval blockade took effect.
1.
Last-Minute Ship Movements
·
Just before the U.S. blockade, two Iran-linked
tankers exited via the Strait of Hormuz.
·
Shows that Iran-linked trade continued almost
normally, even as global shipping slowed sharply.
2.
Iran-Linked Trade Remains Resilient
·
Oil flows averaged ~2.2 million barrels/day
recently, slightly higher than pre-conflict levels (~2 million).
·
Indicates Iran has managed to sustain exports
despite tensions and sanctions.
3.
Collapse in Overall Shipping Traffic
·
Pre-war: 120+ vessels/day
·
Now: ~14 vessels/day
·
Most current traffic consists of Iran-linked or
affiliated ships.
·
Non-Iranian companies show “extremely low” risk
appetite.
4. U.S.
Escalation
·
United States has imposed a naval blockade
targeting Iranian shipping.
·
Donald Trump warned:
o
Any Iranian vessel approaching the blockade would
be “immediately eliminated.”
5. Legal
and International Concerns
·
International Maritime Organization criticized the
move:
o
Blockading an international strait may violate
international law.
·
Raises concerns about:
o
Freedom of navigation
o
Escalation risks in global waters
6.
Humanitarian & Economic Impact
·
Around 20,000 seafarers on ~1,600 ships are
now stranded in the Persian Gulf.
·
Risks include:
o
Potential attacks on vessels
o
Disruptions to global trade and food supply
chains
Bottom
Line
·
A dual reality is emerging:
o
Iran-linked shipping continues (to an extent)
o
Global commercial shipping is largely paralyzed
·
The blockade has intensified:
o
Geopolitical tensions
o
Legal disputes
o
Global economic risks
Hours
before a U.S. naval blockade of ships from Iranian ports took effect on Monday,
two Iranian-linked ships exited the Persian Gulf via the Strait of Hormuz, according
to Kpler, a global ship-tracking firm.
The
crossings highlighted that although the number of vessels passing through the strait
has fallen sharply, ships linked to Iran have continued to navigate the waterway
at rates close to those before the first U.S. and Israeli strikes in late February,
according to Kpler. Transits in the four weeks to Sunday averaged 2.2 million barrels
of oil per day, compared with an average of two million per day in the four weeks
to Feb. 28.
One
of the ships, the Panama-flagged tanker Auroura, was believed to be carrying a cargo
of Iranian naphtha, a type of petroleum product, which Kepler noted was under sanctions
and had previously carried Iranian cargoes. The second tanker, the New Future, loaded
gas oil at the Hamriyah port in the United Arab Emirates and carried a Marshall
Islands flag. The New Future’s previous three trades were with Iran.
There
was “still a trickle of trade making its way through” on Monday before the blockade
came into effect, said Alexis Ellender, an analyst at Kpler.
But major shipping companies not linked to Iran had an “incredibly low” risk appetite
for crossing the strait, he said.
The
average number of vessels crossing the Strait of Hormuz before the war was more
than 120 per day. Just 28 vessels have crossed in the last two days, including 14
on Sunday, mainly ships with links to Iran.
President
Trump said Monday that the U.S. Navy would attack any Iranian ships that tried to
cross the Strait of Hormuz. “Warning: If any of these ships come anywhere close
to our BLOCKADE, they will be immediately ELIMINATED, using the same system of kill
that we use against the drug dealers on boats at Sea,” he wrote on social media.
Arsenio
Dominguez, the head of the International Maritime Organization, the U.N. agency
responsible for shipping safety and security, said on Monday that the naval blockade
was in violation of international law. He said at a news conference in London that
countries “don’t have the right to blockade an international strait that is used
for international navigation.”
He
added that a U.S. blockade “just doesn’t really help anything in finding a solution
to the conflict,” adding that he was waiting to hear more details about the action.
Mr.
Dominguez said that the situation in the region of the Strait of Hormuz remained
of grave concern, with 20,000 seafarers on 1,600 vessels stranded in the Persian
Gulf.
“There’s
the constant threat that a ship may be targeted or attacked, which, of course, endangers
lives for the seafarers,” he said. The disruptions to international shipping have
also had major consequences for the global economy and food security, he said.