Moldova’s 2025 Parliamentary Elections Ukraine
Border Country caught: Between Russia and the E.U.
Parliamentary elections in this nation
bordering Ukraine come at a critical moment in Moldova’s push for European
Union membership.
What’s at
stake?
·
Moldova’s election is widely seen as a geopolitical
crossroads: deeper integration with the European Union (E.U.) versus
renewed alignment with Russia.
·
The outcome could determine whether Moldova
sustains reforms needed for E.U. accession or pivots back toward
Moscow’s influence.
Backdrop
·
Moldova, with 2.4 million people, borders Ukraine
and Romania, making it strategically important.
·
President Maia Sandu’s Party of Action and
Solidarity (PAS) champions pro-E.U. reforms.
·
Pro-Russian forces, led by the Patriotic
Electoral Bloc coalition, aim to reverse that course.
Russian
Influence
·
Moldova’s government accused Russia of:
o
Massive disinformation campaigns, fueled by AI-generated fake news across TikTok, Telegram,
Facebook, Instagram, and YouTube.
o
Cyberattacks on electoral systems and hoax
bomb threats at overseas polling stations (Rome, Brussels, Bucharest,
Asheville, N.C.).
·
Analysts say Moscow sees Moldova as on the verge of
being “lost forever” to Europe.
Domestic
Challenges
·
Slow economic growth, high energy prices,
and widespread poverty weigh heavily on voters.
·
Though Moldova applied for E.U. membership in
2022, support is fragile: a 2024 referendum on E.U. accession passed
narrowly (50.4% to 49.5%).
Election
Dynamics
·
PAS won 63 seats in 2021, but may struggle
to maintain control.
·
If no absolute majority emerges, coalition-building
or even snap elections could follow.
·
The diaspora, strongly pro-E.U., is considered
decisive.
International
Dimension
·
The E.U. is actively engaged: Commissioner Marta
Kos said the election is about “more than Moldova — it’s about the European
Union.”
·
The U.S. role has diminished: Trump administration
cuts to foreign assistance and oversight of Russian influence (e.g., fewer
fact-checkers on Meta platforms) have reduced Western counterweights.
Risks
Ahead
·
If pro-Russian parties win, Moldova’s E.U.
path may stall or reverse.
·
If they lose, experts fear protests or refusal
to recognize results, potentially destabilizing the country.
Timeline
·
Polls ran 7 a.m. – 9 p.m. local time on
Sunday.
·
Preliminary results expected
overnight; final results may take several days.
Moldova
voted in a high-stakes parliamentary election on Sunday that could either
further its push to join the European Union or pull the nation closer to
Russia.
The
tug of war between East and West in Moldova’s politics has imbued the election
with outsize importance. Sandwiched between Ukraine and Romania, Moldova, a
tiny nation of 2.4 million people, is both strategically important because of
its location and a critical test of sentiment toward Western Europe.
The
Trump administration has cut foreign assistance, including to Eastern Europe,
and pulled away from instruments of American influence in the region, including
Radio Free Europe and Voice of America. In Moldova, the pro-European party of
President Maia Sandu has said Russia is trying to sway the vote by pouring
hundreds of millions of dollars into extensive disinformation campaigns, ones fueled by false news generated by artificial intelligence.
Interference
was expected, and it appeared to be underway on Sunday. The Moldovan government
reported both cyberattacks on electoral systems and hoax bomb threats at voting
sites in cities including Rome; Brussels; Bucharest, Romania; and Asheville,
N.C. Moldova’s diaspora makes up an important part of its pro-European Union
vote. The police said they had detained three people who they said were
believed to have been planning to sow chaos at a protest following the vote,
and who had “pyrotechnics and inflammables” in their car.
Domestic
issues also loomed large. Moldova’s economy is barely growing, high energy
prices are a burden, and poverty is widespread. That had left Ms. Sandu’s party
contending with serious grievances.
Still,
Marta Kos, the European Union commissioner who deals with the bloc’s expansion,
said the election had become about “much more” than Moldova. “It is also about
us,” she said. “It is also about the European Union.”
Will Moldova move toward
Russia?
Moldova
declared its independence as the Soviet Union fell apart more than three
decades ago, but it remains home to a sizable Russian-speaking population. The
two nations have historically had close economic ties, and the Russian Orthodox
Church is influential.
In
recent years, though, Moldova has moved toward the 27-nation European Union. It
elected Ms. Sandu in 2020. After Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in
2022, drawing closer to Europe seemed to be the best avenue for Moldova to
avoid future domination by Moscow.
That
year Moldova applied for European Union membership; last October, a national
referendum enshrined support for joining the bloc into the Moldovan
Constitution.
But
voters supported the E.U. measure narrowly, 50.4 percent to 49.5 percent,
reflecting a growing division between the nation’s pro-European and pro-Russian
sides.
The
closeness of last year’s vote suggests that Ms. Sandu’s party could lose its
control of Parliament this time. That would make it harder for the party to
continue making the reforms needed for Moldova to join the European Union
eventually.
“We are so close in the negotiations with the
E.U., and there is a window of opportunity,” said Sergiu Panainte, the deputy
director of the German Marshall Fund’s Bucharest office. Russia is so active in
the election because its leaders “understand that Moldova is about to be lost
for them pretty much forever,” he said.
What are the parties?
Ms.
Sandu’s Party of Action and Solidarity, which favors
stronger European Union ties, secured 63 seats in the last election, in 2021.
It
is running against pro-Russian candidates, most notably the Patriotic Electoral
Bloc coalition.
Voters
can cast ballots for a political party, for an electoral bloc of two or more
parties or for independent candidates.
If
Ms. Sandu’s party does not win an absolute majority, it could form a coalition
with other parties, Mr. Panainte said, or there could be a snap follow-up
election.
What has happened so far?
Russia
has used TikTok, Telegram, Facebook, Instagram, YouTube and artificial
intelligence to spread false information about Ms. Sandu and her party. Trump
administration policies mean there are fewer checks on Russia from the United
States.
When
Moldova last held elections, Biden administration officials urged American
platforms to do more to identify inauthentic accounts. But that has stopped
with the new White House. Instead, Meta has cut fact checkers at Facebook,
which is widely used in Moldova.
Still,
both the European Union and Ms. Sandu’s party have been trying to stem Russian
messaging in Moldova. Ms. Kos has visited the country three times, reaching out
to mayors and Orthodox priests.
Political
scientists and authorities alike continue to worry that if Russian-aligned
parties perform poorly, there could be protests, or a refusal to recognize the
results. If they perform well, Moldova’s E.U. hopes could end.
“I
don’t believe, if the pro-Russian forces win, that Moldova will go the European
way,” Ms. Kos said.
When will results come in?
Polls
were open from 7 a.m. to 9 p.m. local time, and results are expected to come in
over the course of Sunday night. A final count could arrive late Sunday or
early Monday. It will take a few days for the result to become official.