Myanmar Balances India and China Ties, but Beijing Retains Strategic Influence

President Min Aung Hlaing’s recent visits to both his giant neighbours are seen as a balancing act rather than a shift away from Beijing

· Myanmar President Min Aung Hlaing made back-to-back visits to India and China in an effort to avoid excessive dependence on either country, according to analysts.

· His visit to India was his first overseas trip since assuming the presidency in April 2026.

· During the visit, India and Myanmar agreed to strengthen cooperation in:

o Trade,

o Energy,

o Defence,

o Infrastructure,

o Transport connectivity.

· Both sides reaffirmed efforts to complete two long-pending connectivity projects:

o The India-Myanmar-Thailand Trilateral Highway, and

o The Kaladan Multi-Modal Transit Transport Project, aimed at linking India's northeastern states to the Bay of Bengal.

· The projects have faced prolonged delays due to insurgency and instability in Myanmar.

· Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi said discussions also covered cooperation in rare earth minerals, although Myanmar's official statement did not mention the issue.

· Analyst Zhang Tian said the India visit carried greater symbolic than practical significance, helping enhance the international legitimacy of Min Aung Hlaing's presidency.

· The military-led government continues to face legitimacy challenges following the 2021 military coup that ousted the civilian government of Aung San Suu Kyi, with several Western countries refusing to recognise the regime.

· India provides Myanmar with significant economic support, supplying over 60% of Myanmar's pharmaceutical imports and serving as an important market for agricultural exports.

· India also offers opportunities in digital technology, energy and infrastructure, providing Myanmar with immediate economic benefits.

· Analyst Lin Minwang said China was comfortable with India hosting Min Aung Hlaing's first presidential visit, as it reduced diplomatic pressure on Beijing.

· China remains Myanmar's principal strategic partner and continues to support the military government politically and economically.

· During Min Aung Hlaing's visit to Beijing, Chinese President Xi Jinping reaffirmed support for Myanmar's government.

· China and Myanmar agreed to strengthen cooperation against telecom fraud and online gambling and advance the China-Myanmar Economic Corridor, linking southwest China to the Indian Ocean.

· Analysts said Myanmar is deliberately hedging between India and China:

o Prioritising economic corridors and infrastructure with China.

o Exploring critical minerals cooperation with India.

· Despite this balancing strategy, analysts believe China remains Myanmar's primary strategic and economic anchor.

· China is also increasingly engaged in supporting Myanmar's governance through cooperation in healthcare, education and public services, alongside promoting peace.

· China remains Myanmar's largest trading partner, with bilateral trade reaching US$19.4 billion last year.

· By comparison, India-Myanmar trade stood at US$1.95 billion during the previous financial year.

· Analysts said India's growing interest in Myanmar's rare earth resources is unlikely to challenge China's dominant position because:

o India's mineral extraction and processing capabilities remain limited.

o Chinese companies continue to dominate rare earth operations in Myanmar's Kachin State, often in cooperation with the Kachin Independence Army.

· Overall, experts concluded that while Myanmar is broadening engagement with India, China's economic, strategic and political influence over Myanmar remains substantially stronger.

[ABS News Service/29.06.2026]

Myanmar President Min Aung Hlaing’s back-to-back visits to India and China have been described as an effort to avoid becoming overdependent on either country, but analysts said there was little reason to think it would erode Beijing’s “overarching influence”.

The former military leader’s visit to India was his first trip abroad since assuming the presidency in April and saw the two countries agreeing to increase cooperation in areas such as trade, energy and defence.

They also pledged to renew efforts to complete two key transport links, the India-Myanmar-Thailand highway and the Kaladan Multi-Modal Transit Transport Project, which aims to boost maritime links and provide landlocked Indian states with access to the Bay of Bengal via Myanmar.

The two projects have been delayed for years due to the ongoing anti-government insurgency that has left large parts of Myanmar under the control of rebel groups.

In a social media post, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi said the talks had also covered ways to deepen cooperation in rare earths, but Myanmar’s statements did not mention the topic.

Zhang Tian, an associate professor specialising in Myanmar studies at Sun Yat-sen University in Guangzhou, said the India trip’s symbolic value “outweighed its practical significance” by helping legitimise Min Aung Hlaing’s presidency.

The former general, who led the 2021 coup against the civilian government of Aung San Suu Kyi, assumed the presidency in April, but the heavily controlled election process and a new parliament packed with military loyalists raised widespread questions about his legitimacy. Several Western democracies have refused to recognise the government.

“A public endorsement of legitimacy from a major, democratic neighbour is a highly scarce political asset. In fact, some commentators have called it a ‘diplomatic lifeline’, framing the visit as a vital turning point,” Zhang said.

He added that India offered rare economic support for Myanmar, which is struggling with severe foreign exchange shortages, a weak industrial base and plunging foreign direct investment.

India accounted for over 60 per cent of Myanmar’s pharmaceutical supplies, offered a major export market for agricultural goods and offered potential benefits from digital technology and energy – all “tangible and immediate returns”, Zhang said.

Lin Minwang, professor and vice-dean at Fudan University’s Institute of International Studies, said Beijing may have wanted to avoid hosting Min Aung Hlaing’s first foreign visit as president given the deep domestic resentment against the military and China’s already close ties with the junta.

“I wouldn’t say China is worried about Myanmar pivoting its foreign policy … In a sense, [Min Aung Hlaing’s] decision to choose India for his first visit actually relieves some diplomatic pressure for China, and to a certain extent, Beijing welcomes the move.”

China has long been one of the main supporters of the military junta, maintaining close economic ties, and President Xi Jinping welcomed his Myanmar counterpart to Beijing in mid-June and stressed his strong support for his rule.

The two heads of state vowed to crack down on criminal activities such as online gambling and telecoms fraud and make progress on the China-Myanmar Economic Corridor connecting southwest China to the Indian Ocean.

Zhang described these two areas as the “vital levers” of their relationship, adding that India and China served different strategic functions for Myanmar.

Its hedging between the two Asian giants was a “calculated move” to avoid overdependence on either of them, Zhang said.

“Myanmar emphasises economic corridors and infrastructure with China, while highlighting critical minerals with India. This represents a deliberate posture on Naypyidaw’s part – it wants to maximise its hedging and balancing acts,” he said.

“The underlying implication is that China remains its ultimate stabilising ballast.”

He added: “Myanmar has a highly sensitive and fragile regime, and it has been that way ever since independence. It is fiercely vigilant against any potential foreign intervention or interference in its territory.”

He said China’s relationship with Myanmar had increasingly focused on helping to improve basic services such as health, welfare and education.

“Whether you fight or not is something we work around – ideally, you shouldn’t fight, and China’s diplomatic stance will certainly always favour peace – but regardless of whether fighting continues, China is going to pursue governance,” he added.

China remains Myanmar’s largest trading partner, with bilateral trade reaching US$19.4 billion last year, according to Chinese estimates.

By comparison, Myanmar-India trade stood at US$1.95 billion during the previous financial year, according to the Indian foreign ministry.

Lin argued that China need not worry about the increasing cooperation between Myanmar and India on critical minerals.

Lin said: “While India does, in a sense, view Myanmar as part of its sphere of influence, New Delhi’s current efforts to bolster security and economic ties will not erode China’s overarching influence.

“The India-Myanmar relationship is simply incomparable to China’s ties with Myanmar whether in terms of trade, investment or people-to-people exchanges.”

Lin said India’s ability to extract and process critical minerals lagged far behind China’s.

“While China remains highly interested in Myanmar’s mineral wealth, India’s limited competitiveness in this sector means there is no reason for China to be vigilant or overly concerned,” he said.

At the Shanghai Cooperation Summit in China last year, Modi said there was “immense scope to boost ties” over rare earths. But New Delhi is also reported to have reached out to the Kachin Independence Army, although the rebel group has denied striking a secret deal to extract the minerals.

Instead, the rare earth industry in Kachin state is still dominated by Chinese companies that have been cooperating with the Kachin Independence Army.