NITI Aayog Releases Trade Watch Quarterly; Highlights Pharma Sector as Key Driver of Future Export Growth

1. Release of Trade Watch Quarterly

·         Ashok Kumar Lahiri released the latest edition of “Trade Watch Quarterly” for Q4 FY 2025–26 (January–March 2026) in New Delhi.

·         The publication was released in the presence of senior officials, including the CEO of NITI Aayog.

2. Focus of the Report

·         The report reviews:

o    Global trade trends.

o    India's trade performance.

o    Emerging opportunities and challenges.

·         The thematic focus of this edition is India’s pharmaceutical sector, one of the country's most globally competitive industries.

India's Overall Trade Performance

3. Total Trade Reaches Record Level

·         India's total merchandise and services trade reached USD 1.84 trillion during FY 2025–26.

·         Total trade expanded by 5.4% year-on-year.

4. Export and Import Growth

·         Exports increased by 4.2%.

·         Imports grew by 6.5%.

·         The figures indicate continued expansion of India's engagement with the global economy despite geopolitical and macroeconomic uncertainties.

5. Strong Services Trade Performance

·         Services exports grew by 9.0% during Q4 FY 2025–26.

·         Services export growth exceeded import growth, helping maintain a strong services trade surplus.

6. Global Ranking

·         India retained its position as the world’s eighth-largest services exporter in 2025.

·         India's services exports recorded a 10.3% CAGR between 2015 and 2025, significantly above the global average.

Pharmaceutical Sector: Thematic Focus

7. Strategic Importance

·         India's pharmaceutical industry has emerged as a strategic pillar of the economy.

·         The sector is supported by:

o    Strong manufacturing capabilities.

o    Global leadership in generic medicines.

o    Significant vaccine production capacity.

o    Integration into global healthcare supply chains.

8. Global Pharmaceutical Market

·         Global demand for pharmaceuticals and Active Pharmaceutical Ingredients (APIs) is estimated at approximately USD 1.3 trillion in 2025.

·         India exported pharmaceutical and API products worth USD 35.8 billion.

9. Contribution to Global Health

·         India remains:

o    A leading supplier of generic medicines.

o    A major producer of vaccines.

o    An important provider of essential therapeutics.

·         The sector contributes significantly to global health security.

Strengths of India's Pharma Exports

10. Dominance in Generic Medicines

·         India's export strength is concentrated in:

o    Generic drugs.

o    Retail medicaments.

o    Pharmaceutical formulations.

·         These products enjoy strong acceptance across global markets.

11. Competitive Manufacturing Base

·         India's success is driven by:

o    Cost-effective production.

o    Large-scale manufacturing capacity.

o    Established pharmaceutical clusters.

o    Skilled workforce.

Emerging Challenges

12. Limited Presence in High-Value Segments

·         The report notes that the global pharmaceutical industry is increasingly moving towards:

o    Biologics.

o    Immunological products.

o    Advanced therapeutics.

o    Precision medicines.

·         India's participation in these high-value segments remains relatively limited.

13. API Import Dependence

·         India has strengthened its position in specialized APIs and antibiotics.

·         However, dependence on imported:

o    Raw materials.

o    Pharmaceutical intermediates.

remains significant, especially from China.

Leading Pharmaceutical States

14. Key Production Hubs

The report identifies three states as the backbone of India's pharmaceutical industry:

·         Telangana

·         Gujarat

·         Maharashtra

15. Reasons for Success

These states benefit from:

·         Strong industrial ecosystems.

·         Cluster-based development.

·         Globally competitive firms.

·         Supportive policy environments.

·         Strong integration into global value chains.

Future Opportunities

16. Expansion into Advanced Segments

The report highlights opportunities in:

·         Biologics.

·         Biosimilars.

·         Advanced therapeutics.

·         High-value pharmaceutical products.

17. Strengthening API Ecosystem

·         Expanding domestic API manufacturing can:

o    Reduce import dependence.

o    Improve supply chain resilience.

o    Enhance strategic self-reliance.

18. Innovation and R&D

Future growth will require greater investments in:

·         Research and Development (R&D).

·         Technology adoption.

·         Skilled workforce development.

·         Regulatory efficiency.

19. Market Access Improvements

·         Better access to international markets through regulatory cooperation and trade facilitation could significantly boost exports.

Remarks by NITI Aayog Vice-Chairman

20. Key Message from Ashok Kumar Lahiri

·         Ashok Kumar Lahiri emphasized that India's future trade growth will depend on:

o    Diversifying exports.

o    Strengthening domestic manufacturing capabilities.

o    Enhancing resilience amid global trade shifts.

·         He noted that while India is already a global leader in generic medicines, the next phase of growth must be driven by:

o    Innovation-led pharmaceutical production.

o    Higher value addition.

o    Domestic production of critical inputs.

o    Improved global market access.

Significance of the Report

21. Policy Resource

·         The Trade Watch Quarterly serves as an important resource for:

o    Policymakers.

o    Industry leaders.

o    Researchers.

o    Academic institutions.

·         It provides:

o    Data-driven analysis.

o    Sectoral insights.

o    Forward-looking policy recommendations.

Key Takeaway

India's trade sector remained resilient in FY 2025–26, with total trade reaching USD 1.84 trillion, supported by strong growth in services exports. The report identifies the pharmaceutical sector as a major growth engine and stresses that India's next export leap will depend on moving beyond generic medicines into high-value segments such as biologics and advanced therapeutics, while strengthening domestic API manufacturing and innovation capabilities.

 

<Trade Watch Quarterly>

[ABS News Service/24.06.2026]

Ashok Kumar Lahiri, Vice-Chairman, NITI Aayog, released the latest edition of the “Trade Watch Quarterly” publication for Quarter 4 of FY’2025-26 (Jan-Mar 2026) on 23rd June 2026, in New Delhi. It was released in the presence of the CEO, NITI Aayog and other senior officials.

The publication provides a comprehensive assessment of global and domestic trade trends at a time when global trade has demonstrated resilience despite persistent macroeconomic and geopolitical uncertainties. India's trade remained broadly stable, with total merchandise and services trade expanding by 5.4% year-on-year (y-o-y) during April–March FY’2025-26 to reach $1.84 trillion. The thematic focus of this edition is the pharmaceutical sector, one of India's most globally competitive industries. India is a leading supplier of generic medicines and a major provider of vaccines and essential therapeutics, making an important contribution to global health security. The study analyses global demand patterns vis-à-vis India's export profile to identify untapped opportunities, while examining the sector's competitive strengths, existing gaps, and scope for higher value addition and market diversification.

India’s trade performance in Q4 FY’2025–26 underscored the continued resilience of the external sector, supported by robust growth in services trade. While merchandise exports moderated and imports increased, the composition of trade remained broadly stable. Services trade remained a key source of strength, with exports growing by 9.0%, outpacing import growth and sustaining a strong services surplus. India retained its position as the world’s eighth-largest services exporter in 2025, with services exports recording a CAGR of 10.3% during 2015–2025, significantly above the global average. Overall, India’s total trade reached $1.84 trillion during FY2025–26, with exports growing by 4.2% and imports by 6.5%, highlighting the continued dynamism of India’s engagement with the global economy.

The thematic focus of this quarter’s edition, India’s pharmaceutical sector has emerged as a strategic pillar of the economy, supported by a strong manufacturing base, global competitiveness in generic medicines, and growing integration into international healthcare supply chains. Global pharmaceutical and Active Pharmaceutical Ingredients (APIs) demand is estimated at approximately $1.3 trillion in 2025, while India exported pharmaceutical and API products worth $35.8 billion. Supported by its strong capabilities in generic medicines, vaccines, and essential drugs, India continues to play an important role in global healthcare supply chains, although its share in global pharmaceutical trade remains modest, indicating significant opportunities for future growth.

The analysis highlights that India’s export strength remains concentrated in formulations, particularly retail medicaments and generic drugs, where it has established a strong presence across global markets. However, the global pharmaceutical industry is increasingly shifting towards high-value segments such as biologics, immunologicals, and advanced therapeutics, where India’s participation remains limited. In APIs, India has strengthened its position in several specialised chemical intermediates and antibiotics, but continues to face dependence on imported raw materials and intermediates, particularly from China.

Telangana, Gujarat, and Maharashtra have emerged as the key pillars of India’s pharmaceutical industry, driving a significant share of the country’s production, exports, and integration into global value chains. Their success is rooted in strong manufacturing ecosystems, cluster-based development, globally competitive firms, and supportive policy frameworks.

The analysis highlights that India’s pharmaceutical sector is well positioned to strengthen its role in global value chains, supported by a growing innovation ecosystem, strong manufacturing capabilities, and increasing global demand for medicines and healthcare products. Opportunities exist to expand India’s presence in high-value segments such as biologics, biosimilars, and advanced therapeutics, while further strengthening domestic API production and upstream capabilities can enhance supply chain resilience. Continued investments in R&D, technology, skills, and regulatory efficiency, alongside improved market access in key export destinations, can support higher value addition and reinforce India’s position as a leading global pharmaceutical manufacturing and innovation hub.

Addressing the occasion, Ashok Kumar Lahiri stated that “as global trade undergoes structural shifts, India’s ability to diversify its export base while strengthening domestic capabilities in key sectors will be critical to sustaining growth and enhancing resilience. The pharmaceutical sector illustrates both India’s strengths and future opportunities. While India has emerged as a leading supplier of generic medicines to the world, the next phase of growth will depend on moving towards innovation-driven segments, strengthening domestic production of critical inputs, and improving access to global markets.”

The edition serves as a valuable resource for policymakers, industry, researchers, and academia, offering data-driven insights and forward-looking policy recommendations to support informed decision-making and strengthen India’s trade competitiveness in an evolving global landscape.