Nancy Pelosi Visits to Taiwan

· Known China Baiter, to Visit Taiwan to Needle the Dragon

When a plane carrying a very senior US politician touches down in Taiwan as soon as tonight, a key question will remain — why now?

Nancy Pelosi has been House Speaker (second in the line of succession to the presidency) across two stints starting in 2007, and in Congress for 35 years. So why pick this moment to visit the democratically ruled island that China claims as its territory and has threatened to take by force?

Her trip, still unconfirmed publicly but which officials say includes a potential meeting tomorrow with President Tsai Ing-wen, has already caused ructions in US-China relations. It overshadowed a call last week between President Joe Biden and his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping.

It comes at a very delicate time in ties, with tensions soaring over everything from trade to human rights and, more recently, China’s refusal to condemn Russia for its invasion of Ukraine.

It puts both Biden and Xi in a bind. The White House is clearly uneasy about the trip, but Biden has to be careful not to be seen to be ordering her to cancel it. China has been so vocal in its displeasure, warning of potential military or economic retaliation (or both), that Xi might have to do something simply to avoid being seen as weak.

Why then might Pelosi push on?

She too has her reputation at stake in not backing down. She has for decades been a strong critic of China over human rights, most famously raising a banner in Tiananmen Square in 1991.

And with the US midterm elections coming and Democrats sliding in polls, she is at a high risk of losing her role. Xi, meantime, is likely to soon be endorsed for another term.

As someone watching Xi’s increasingly authoritarian tilt, for Pelosi this might be now or never — no matter the fallout