OPEC+ Holds Oil Output Steady as Persian Gulf Conflict Drives Prices Higher

The decision on Sunday by the cartel of oil-producing nations and some of its allies came after the resumption of U.S. and Iranian military strikes in the Persian Gulf.

· OPEC+ keeps production unchanged: The oil-producing alliance decided to maintain its existing production levels for October 2026, marking the first time since April that it did not increase output.

· Persian Gulf conflict drives market uncertainty: The decision followed renewed U.S.–Iran military strikes and escalating attacks around the Persian Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz.

· Oil prices rise sharply: Global crude prices climbed to around US$96 per barrel by Friday amid concerns over supply disruptions.

· Seven countries took part: The decision involved Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria and Oman. Their next meeting is scheduled for October 4.

· Previous production increases were largely symbolic: Although OPEC+ had increased production in recent months, the Iran conflict and disrupted exports meant that much of the additional supply had limited practical impact.

· U.S.–Iran escalation: A month-long lull in fighting ended after U.S. strikes on Iranian military sites near the Strait of Hormuz. Iran subsequently launched missile and drone attacks, while the U.S. reportedly struck Iranian oil tankers.

· OPEC's influence faces pressure: The cartel's unity and control over global oil supply are under increasing strain from geopolitical developments and changes among member countries.

· Venezuela's OPEC membership questioned: Speculation has increased that Venezuela could eventually leave OPEC following a new U.S.–Venezuela oil arrangement and potential expansion of Venezuelan production.

· UAE's departure adds pressure: The United Arab Emirates' exit from OPEC earlier in 2026 highlighted growing disagreements over production restrictions and the cartel's supply-management policies.

· Venezuela's production remains limited: Despite possessing enormous oil reserves, Venezuela currently produces around 1.12 million barrels per day, constrained by sanctions, ageing infrastructure and economic difficulties.

· Venezuela's exit would be largely symbolic but significant: Analysts believe a departure could further weaken OPEC's influence and market power, even if Venezuela's immediate production impact remains limited.

· Long-term production capacity review: OPEC+ is conducting a study of member countries' production capacities, with findings expected before a ministerial meeting in November.

[ABS News Service/07.09.2026]

The cartel of influential oil-producing nations known as OPEC Plus said on Sunday that it would keep production flat as the price of Brent crude, the global benchmark for oil, spiked sharply in recent days after military strikes resumed in the Persian Gulf.

It was the first time since April that the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and some of its allies including Russia, operating as a group called OPEC Plus, have opted against boosting production. The monthly increases had been largely symbolic because the war in Iran has scrambled the oil market and interrupted exports. They were meant to send a signal that the consortium was conducting business as usual, despite the war in Iran.

“The seven participating countries decided to maintain September 2026 required production,” for October, the consortium said in a statement.

The countries involved in Sunday’s decision were Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria and Oman. Their next meeting will be held on Oct. 4.

The decision to keep oil output steady comes as a fragile, monthlong lull in the fighting in the Persian Gulf ended last week with U.S. strikes against Iranian rocket sites and sea-mine placement operations on Larak Island near the Strait of Hormuz.

In response to the U.S. strikes, Iran launched ballistic missile and drone attacks targeting regional U.S. allies and military bases. On Saturday, the United States struck three Iranian oil tankers.

Global crude benchmarks have risen sharply over the past week, closing at around $96 a barrel on Friday.

OPEC’s unity and influence over oil prices are also under strain. Late last month, President Trump announced that the United States had entered an agreement with Venezuela and a private oil company to “secure majority control” of 65 billion barrels of the country’s oil, or about a fifth of its reserves.

That spawned speculation that Venezuela, now run by an interim president, Delcy Rodriguez, after the United States captured the country’s leader, Nicolas Maduro, in January, might leave OPEC. In April, the United Arab Emirates ended its 59-year membership in OPEC, after years of open dissatisfaction with the oil cartel’s policy of capping members’ production as a way to stabilize the market.

Venezuela, one of the founders of OPEC in 1960, has possibly the largest oil reserves in the world. But years of sanctions and economic turmoil have reduced the country’s production. According to the International Energy Agency, Venezuela produces 1.12 million barrels of crude a day, and the country is exempt from OPEC’s production quotas.

Jacques Rousseau, managing director for global oil and gas at Clearview Energy Partners, a research firm based in Washington, said it remained to be seen what quota OPEC might impose upon Venezuela once production increased.

The coalition started a study about a year ago to help determine each country’s production capacity, and the findings are expected before a ministerial meeting in November.

Homayoun Falakshahi, a senior manager with Kpler, a data firm, called Venezuela’s exit from OPEC “a real probability” — eventually.

For now OPEC is unlikely to push for quotas from Venezuela because its production capacity sits below historical levels, and energy experts estimated it could take years before the country is pumping significantly more crude.

That’s because much of the Venezuelan equipment is obsolete and the country’s power grid also requires extensive improvement.

“With Caracas gaining little in practice from staying versus leaving, there is no pressing reason for Venezuela to formalize a break right now,” Mr. Falakshahi wrote in a recent analysis.

He said Venezuela’s exit from OPEC would be largely symbolic, but still a blow. “OPEC’s sway on oil markets would decrease,” Mr. Falakshahi said.

The months of OPEC Plus increases were part of a decision the cartel made in 2023 to gradually reverse a production cut of 1.65 million barrels a day that the then-eight members had previously agreed on. A decision in August to raise output was the final step.