Oil Prices Edge Higher as US-Iran Strait of Hormuz Ceasefire Shows Signs of Holding

·         Oil prices rose modestly on Monday as markets assessed the stability of the fragile ceasefire between the United States and Iran in the Strait of Hormuz.

·         A US official said Washington and Tehran had agreed to halt attacks on commercial shipping through the Strait while continuing negotiations under an existing memorandum of understanding.

·         Iran has not officially confirmed the reported agreement.

·         The ceasefire had come under strain after:

o    An Iranian drone strike on a cargo vessel on Thursday.

o    Subsequent US strikes on Iranian air defence sites and military infrastructure.

o    Iranian retaliatory missile and drone attacks on US military bases in Bahrain and Kuwait.

·         Shipping activity through the Strait of Hormuz declined steadily over the weekend due to security concerns.

Oil Market

·         Brent crude for September delivery rose more than 1% to US$73–74 per barrel, remaining close to pre-war levels.

·         West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude increased 1.5% to around US$70 per barrel.

Global Equity Markets

·         S&P 500 futures indicated a gain of about 0.5% ahead of US market opening.

·         Asian markets were mixed:

o    Taiwan's benchmark index gained about 1%.

o    Hang Seng Index rose nearly 2%.

o    KOSPI fell 0.2%.

·         Europe's Stoxx 600 index remained broadly unchanged.

Fuel Prices

·         The average US gasoline price declined by one cent to US$3.86 per gallon, according to AAA.

·         Despite the latest decline, gasoline prices remain about 30% higher than before the conflict.

·         The average diesel price eased to US$4.86 per gallon, but is also nearly 30% above pre-war levels.

·         Analysts noted that retail fuel prices typically lag changes in crude oil prices by several days.

 

[ABS News Service/29.06.2026]

Oil prices edged higher on Monday as traders assessed the state of an uneasy cease-fire in the Persian Gulf. An American official said the United States and Iran had agreed to halt attacks in the Strait of Hormuz, raising hopes that the hostilities of recent days may not escalate into a full resumption of war.

A U.S. official, who spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss ongoing negotiations, said the United States and Iran had agreed to allow commercial vessels to transit the strategic waterway while continuing talks on the existing memorandum of understanding. Iran has yet to confirm the latest agreement.

The cease-fire had appeared to be unraveling after an Iranian drone strike on a cargo ship on Thursday. The United States responded a day later by targeting Iranian air-defense sites and other military infrastructure. In turn, Iran’s Revolutionary Guards said they had launched missiles and drones this weekend at a U.S. naval base in Bahrain and an air base in Kuwait.

The number of ships navigating the strait dropped steadily through the weekend.

Oil creeps higher.

·         The price of Brent crude, the global benchmark for oil, rose over 1 percent on Monday to between $73 and $74 a barrel for September delivery, the most actively traded contract. Prices remain near prewar levels, where they returned last week after a series of declines.

·         West Texas Intermediate crude, the U.S. benchmark, rose 1.5 percent to around $70 a barrel.

Stocks gain.

·         Futures on the S&P 500 pointed to an increase of about half a percent when stocks resume trading in the United States on Monday.

·         Stocks in Asia, where countries import vast quantities of oil and gas, were mixed. Shares in Taiwan were up 1 percent, while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng rose nearly 2 percent. South Korea’s benchmark KOSPI fell 0.2 percent.

·         In Europe, the Stoxx 600, a broad index that tracks the region’s largest companies, was flat.

Gasoline prices fall slightly.

·         Gas prices fell again on Monday, dropping by a penny to a national average of $3.86 a gallon, according to the AAA motor club. Still, gas prices have risen 30 percent since the war began.

·         Gas prices don’t move in lock step with crude, usually trailing increases or drops by a few days.

·         The average price of diesel slipped to $4.86 per gallon on Monday, up nearly 30 percent since the start of the war.