Global Oil Prices Decline to $93 per Barrel Amid Hopes of US-Iran Peace Deal and Recovery in Oil Supply

The global benchmark price is down roughly $20 a barrel since late October, when it traded for around $113.

· Sharp Decline in Oil Prices: International Brent crude prices fell to approximately US$93 per barrel, down nearly US$20 from around US$113 in late October. US benchmark WTI crude also declined to below US$87 per barrel.

· US-Iran Peace Prospects: Hopes of diplomatic negotiations between the United States and Iran to end the ongoing war have reduced concerns about further military escalation and disruptions to global oil supplies.

· Global Supply Recovery: According to J.P. Morgan analysts, global oil production has exceeded consumption since September 2026, restoring a physical supply surplus for the first time since the war began.

· Factors Behind Price Decline: Increased oil supplies from the Middle East, rising production in other regions and reduced fuel consumption by businesses and consumers have helped restore market balance.

· Diplomatic Efforts: Mediators have presented proposals to the Trump administration and Iranian officials, raising expectations of a possible agreement and reducing the geopolitical risk premium in oil prices.

· Fuel Prices Remain Elevated: Despite falling crude prices, US retail fuel prices remain high. Average petrol prices stood at approximately US$4 per gallon and diesel at US$6.17 per gallon, reflecting higher shipping costs, depleted inventories and refinery damage.

· Continuing Middle East Tensions: Saudi Arabia and Yemen's Iran-backed Houthi militia remain involved in hostilities. Recent attacks targeted an Aramco office tower and a key Saudi oil pipeline, although pipeline operations were reportedly unaffected.

· US Political Pressure: Following the Democratic Party's victories in the US midterm elections, pressure has increased on President Donald Trump to end the war, partly because higher fuel prices have affected American consumers.

· Risk of Further Escalation: Energy analysts caution that military tensions could intensify again in the coming weeks, as there is no certainty that Washington and Tehran will agree to each other's demands.

[ABS News Service/10.11.2026]

Global oil prices tumbled on Monday continuing a weeklong slide built on hopes that diplomacy may help bring the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran to an end despite continued hostilities in some parts of the Middle East.

At around $93 a barrel Monday afternoon, the price of Brent crude, the global benchmark, is down roughly $20 a barrel since late October. The U.S. benchmark, West Texas Intermediate, was under $87.

Behind those drops is an oil market that has quietly reached a new equilibrium, as global supply finally caught back up with demand. Beginning in September, the world was — for the first time since the start of the war — pumping more oil than it was using, according to analysts at J.P. Morgan.

“The return of the physical surplus, combined with news of a potential agreement between the U.S. and Iran, is rapidly eroding the premium embedded in oil prices,” the analysts wrote in a note to investors last week.

Several factors have brought the market back into balance, at least temporarily. More oil is flowing out from the Middle East. Production is growing in other parts of the world. And individuals and businesses are finding ways to use less fuel to avoid high prices.

Oil prices have also fallen because mediators have been presenting proposals to the Trump administration and Iranian officials, putting off the prospect of new attacks on Iran by the United States and Israel.

Even after the recent price slide, fuel remains much more expensive than it was when the war started for many reasons, including much higher shipping costs, depleted inventories and damaged refineries. In the United States, the national average price of gasoline was $4 a gallon Monday, according to AAA. That is down from $4.37 a month ago but still about $1 more than a year ago. At $6.17 a gallon, diesel fuel remains much more expensive than before the war. Elevated prices have been a boon to many oil companies, whose profits have soared during the war.

President Trump had previously said he was considering strikes on Iran after the midterm elections last week. Democrats took back both houses of Congress as voters expressed frustration with a war that caused fuel prices to soar.

That said, hostilities were continuing between Saudi Arabia and the Houthi militia of Yemen that is backed by Iran. The militia struck an office tower of the Saudi state oil company, Aramco, on Sunday.

On Monday, a key pipeline that moves oil across Saudi Arabia was attacked, the country’s Ministry of Energy said, without identifying who was behind the attack. The ministry said pipeline operations were not affected.

For now, however, oil traders appear to be more focused on the prospects for peace between Iran and the United States.

Jorge León, a senior vice president with Rystad Energy, a consulting firm, said in a note last week that the market appeared to be anticipating that Mr. Trump would face domestic and international pressure to end the war after his party’s drubbing in the midterm elections.

He noted that prices began to decline before Tuesday’s election, “but accelerated after the Democratic sweep.”

But, Mr. Leon cautioned, “we believe there are still compelling reasons to expect a further, potentially short-lived, phase of military escalation in the coming weeks.”

Some oil analysts pointed to a post-election social media post in which Vice President JD Vance blamed the war for Republican defeats in the election. Mr. Vance has been closely involved in negotiating with Iranian officials.

Hamad Hussain, a senior economist with Capital Economics, a research firm, said Mr. Vance’s words heightened assumptions that a deal could be clinched between the United States and Iran, though “a lot of uncertainty” remained about when the war would end.

“The post showed a recognition that the war and the rise of oil prices hurt Republicans at the polls,” Mr. Hussain said. But, he added, “there’s not been much of an indication of whether the Trump administration is actually going to budge, or if the Iranians are actually going to budge on their demands.”