Pakistan Unrest Dampen China’s Belt
and Road Ambitions
Beijing
shows signs of frustration as megaprojects in Pakistan, including Gwadar port
and CPEC, face growing security risks, observers say
·
Continued
instability posed unprecedented challenges to the Gwadar port and the
China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC).
·
The
deep-sea port of Gwadar, which gives Beijing direct access to the Indian Ocean,
has long been seen as the centrepiece of the US$60 billion CPEC, which was
launched over a decade ago.
·
Baloch
ethnic group long complaining about alleged human rights violations, the
exploitation of mineral resources and the growing divide between their
community and Pakistan’s biggest ethnic group – Punjabis.
·
The
Sust port, a critical transport hub for both passengers and cargo at the
China-Pakistan border, had been closed since August 2 due to another
demonstration.
·
Local
traders began protests in mid-July near the Sust port in northern Pakistan, near
the Khunjerab pass border with China, because of tax issues related to Chinese
imports.
·
China
values Pakistan’s strategic location and role in countering India’s influence,
while Pakistan needs Chinese investment and diplomatic support.
Violent
demonstrations in Pakistan’s southwestern port city of Gwadar in the past two
weeks have exacerbated concerns about the country’s security situation and its
impact on Chinese-funded megaprojects.
Despite
Pakistan’s efforts to bolster security at China’s repeated request, the
situation seems to be deteriorating, with a surge in unrest and violence
targeting key Chinese projects under the Belt and Road Initiative, according to
observers.
They warned
that continued instability posed unprecedented challenges to the Gwadar port
and the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), a flagship project under the
belt and road strategy, Beijing’s overseas infrastructure investment scheme,
and China’s “all-weather” partnership with Pakistan.
Tensions in
Gwadar spiked after protesters led by a Baloch ethnic nationalist movement in
the southwestern Balochistan province clashed with security forces deployed to
guard the port project early last week.
While
Pakistan’s army denounced “unprovoked assaults by a violent mob”, which it said
killed one soldier and injured 16 others, protesters claimed dozens of Baloch
people were arrested by authorities while mobile and internet services were
suspended for days.
Located in
resource-rich Balochistan, which borders Iran and Afghanistan and is Pakistan’s
largest and poorest province, the deep-sea port of Gwadar, which gives Beijing
direct access to the Indian Ocean, has long been seen as the centrepiece of the
US$60 billion CPEC, which was launched over a decade ago.
The presence of
CPEC-related Chinese firms and workers in Gwadar attracted the protesters to
the port city, according to Eram Ashraf, an international relations scholar who
specialises in China-Pakistan relations.
“Protests in
Gwadar are not new, and they will not be going away soon as they are carried
out by those in the province who have genuine grievances with the Pakistan
government,” she said.
Ethnic tensions
and separatist sentiments have been rife in the region, with the Baloch ethnic
group long complaining about alleged human rights violations, the exploitation
of mineral resources and the growing divide between their community and
Pakistan’s biggest ethnic group – Punjabis.
Ashraf said the
Chinese projects and citizens in Gwadar were not the real target of the latest
round of protests and so were not directly threatened for the moment.
“The security
threat to the Chinese is from terrorists who can infiltrate the protests and
use them as cover to launch an attack. Some of the Chinese in Gwadar say they
feel safe there because of the presence of Pakistan’s military,” she said.
Meanwhile, the
Chinese embassy in Pakistan issued an alert on its website on Tuesday,
confirming the Sust port, a critical transport hub for
both passengers and cargo at the China-Pakistan border, had been closed since
August 2 due to another demonstration.
According to
Ashraf, local traders began protests in mid-July near
the Sust port in northern Pakistan, near the Khunjerab pass border with China,
because of tax issues related to Chinese imports.
In March, five
Chinese were killed in a suicide car bombing in the Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province
in one of the deadliest attacks targeting Chinese projects and personnel in
years, prompting Beijing to urge Islamabad to “take effective measures” to
tackle militant violence.
The bottom line
picture is that despite frustrations by both countries, we are unlikely to see
the liquidation of big projects such as Gwadar port, which is of strategic
importance for China, but we might well see the further scaling back of new
projects and investments in Pakistan.
Ashraf noted
that Beijing described Islamabad as “a priority in its foreign relations” in
the joint statement issued after Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif’s
China visit in June – a departure from past descriptions of it as “the highest
priority”.
Beijing did not
deny reports that Chinese officials had urged Islamabad to allow China’s
private security companies to protect Chinese projects and workers there, with
spokeswoman Mao saying on Tuesday that China “stands ready to work with
Pakistan to deepen security cooperation.”
However,
Murtazashvili said both sides had strong incentives to maintain close ties, as China values Pakistan’s strategic location and role in
countering India’s influence, while Pakistan needs Chinese investment and
diplomatic support.
“The US factor
adds complexity, as Pakistan tries to balance relations with both powers.
Islamabad seeks to avoid overreliance on China by engaging Washington, but its
options are constrained by tensions over issues like Afghanistan,” she said.