Rising Gulf Oil Exports Threatened by Hormuz
Attacks
Strikes
on tankers in the Strait of Hormuz and oil infrastructure in Saudi Arabia came
as the region’s exporters were getting more oil to the world market.
·
At least 11 tankers have been attacked in and
around the Strait of Hormuz since the previous Monday, including four in the
two days before the report.
·
The attacks come amid escalating conflict involving
Iran, the Houthis and Saudi Arabia, raising risks to regional oil
infrastructure and shipping.
·
U.S. forces have been protecting ships passing
through the strait, but threats continue to disrupt global energy trade.
·
Brent crude was around $102 a barrel. Increased
Gulf exports have helped limit recent price rises, but analysts say that relief
may not last.
·
G7 nations agreed to release emergency diesel and
crude stocks over four months. Analysts warned the move may only ease shortages
and high prices temporarily.
·
Saudi Aramco chief executive Amin Nasser said
global oil inventories had fallen from about 10 billion barrels when the war
began to roughly 6 billion, and could take up to two years to replenish.
·
Saudi Arabia said its oil system remained intact
after reported attacks on an Aramco facility and the East-West pipeline, though
the pipeline was temporarily taken offline.
·
A tanker was struck by an unknown projectile in the
strait, starting an engine-room fire. Damage to a ship’s propulsion could leave
it stranded in the narrow passage.
·
Oil companies are relying more on pipelines that
bypass the strait, longer shipping routes and tactics such as switching off
tracking transponders.
·
Executives warned that transporting oil from the
Persian Gulf has become slower, more expensive and increasingly uncertain.
At
least 11 tankers have been attacked in and around the Strait of Hormuz since
last Monday, including four in the last two days, a stark reminder that the
recent increase in exports from the volatile region rests on a series of
fragile workarounds.
The
drone and missile strikes have continued as the Middle East risks plunging
deeper into war, with the Saudi-backed government of Yemen on Sunday announcing
a major military campaign against the Iran-backed Houthi militia. The
announcement followed Houthi strikes on critical oil infrastructure in Saudi
Arabia.
The
attacks have underscored the unsettling reality for Gulf oil exporters. U.S.
forces have provided protection for ships seeking to transport oil through the
Strait of Hormuz, which Iran asserted control over after the United States and
Israel attacked it more than seven months ago. But heightened risks continue to
shadow the global energy trade.
“Few
expected a near closure of the world’s most critical energy artery to last so
long, or its impact to spread so widely,” Amin Nasser, chief executive of Saudi
Aramco, the national oil company, said in a speech to the Energy Intelligence
Forum in London on Monday.
He
added, “This is one of the worst crises of my career, and my career is long.”
The
price of Brent crude oil, the global benchmark, was little changed on Monday,
hovering around $102 a barrel. Analysts said the big run-up in oil prices since
the war had been held in check in recent weeks by the increase in oil exports
from the Persian Gulf, which have reached higher levels than at any point since
the start of the war.
And
on Friday, the Group of 7 nations, which includes Britain, France and Japan,
said they had agreed to release emergency stocks of diesel and crude over the
next four months.
The
multinational release of backup supplies — the second since March — could end
up providing only temporarily relief from high prices and shortages, analysts
said. A top Japanese official said on Monday that the country, which has
already tapped its stockpiles, had no plans for further releases.
Mr.
Nasser said the world’s current oil stockpiles were “scarily thin” and warned
that replenishing national inventories could take as long as two years.
When
the war in Iran began, he noted, the world had about 10 billion barrels of oil
stocks — a level that has since fallen to about six billion.
“Until
Hormuz fully reopens and confidence returns, the crude reality is that pressure
at both ends of the barrel will intensify,” he said. He called on the
international community to coordinate better on stockpiling, emergency planning
and other measures.
Saudi
Arabia is one of the world’s most important suppliers of oil, so any extended
disruptions to its ability to deliver crude would severely destabilize global
markets.
Mr.
Nasser’s remarks were his first since the Yemeni government announced its major
military campaign against the Houthi militia.
On
Saturday, the Houthis claimed a missile and drone attack had caused fires at a
facility owned by Saudi Aramco in Riyadh. Videos verified by The New York Times
showed a fire at an oil refinery in the city belonging to the company.
Mr.
Nasser on Monday downplayed the attack over the weekend, as well as a drone
attack last month on Saudi Arabia’s critical East-West pipeline.
“Our
system is intact,” Mr. Nasser said. He declined to offer details on how much
damage the pipeline had sustained, which had forced the company to take it
temporarily offline. “We are meeting all of our customer requirements today,”
he said.
Still,
Iran’s attacks on ships have increased in frequency. “Any attack comes with a
global crisis,” Mr. Nasser said.
Dimitris
Maniatis, the founder of Marisks, a maritime risk
firm, said he believed that Iran’s burst of attacks was a response to the
increase in commercial ships that have passed through the strait in recent
weeks.
“What
the Iranians are doing now is shooting blindly,” Mr. Maniatis said, using
missiles and drones simultaneously. “Their objective is to assert control over
the Strait of Hormuz through fear.”
Mr.
Maniatis said Iran was trying to “overwhelm the capability” of U.S. forces that
were trying to defend ships passing through the strait. On Monday, yet another
tanker was struck by an “unknown projectile” while passing through the strait,
causing a fire in the engine room, according to the United Kingdom Maritime
Trade Operations, which is administered by Britain’s Royal Navy. As of Monday
night, the crew was working to contain the fire.
Any
damage to the ships’s propulsion or essential
machinery could leave it disabled within one of the world’s most vital maritime
choke points, Mr. Maniatis said.
Oil
executives said Monday that the war had fundamentally changed the structures
for moving oil out of the Persian Gulf.
Pipelines,
which once were secondary to using the Strait of Hormuz, have become critical
bypass routes. Tactics once confined to sanctioned and shadow vessels, like
turning off transponders or traveling “dark” to dodge missiles and drone
strikes, are now routine. And nations are using more ships and taking longer
routes for transporting oil at costs of millions of dollars daily.
“We
have clearly entered the new and far from normal times,” Mr. Nasser said.