Sharp Rise in Tariffs Results in Volatile and Unpredictable Global Trade, One Fifth of Global Imports Affected

· Released on 3 July, the mid-year update to the Secretariat's now-annual Trade Monitoring Report.

· The WTO Trade Monitoring Update points to a marked shift in the global trading environment in the review period, with new tariff measures in particular affecting a large amount of trade.

· Disruptions we have been seeing in the global trading environment, with a sharp increase in tariffs.

· About 12.5 per cent of world merchandise imports were impacted by such measures that had accumulated since 2009. That share has now jumped to 19.4 per cent.

· The value of global merchandise trade covered by new tariffs and other such measures implemented during the seven-month review period was estimated at US$ 2,732.7 billion (more than triple the US$ 887.6 billion in the 12-month period covered by the previous report, issued in late 2024).

· Reveals a total of 644 trade measures on goods undertaken by WTO members and observers between mid-October 2024 and mid-May 2025.

· Trade remedy investigations covered US$ 63.9 billion in trade (down from US$ 100.0 billion in the previous monitoring report), or 0.26 per cent of world merchandise trade.

· As trade barriers have risen, the relative use of direct support measures has declined and has been overtaken by regulatory tools.

Annual Trade Monitoring Report

[ABS News Service/04.07.2025]

A sharp rise in new tariffs and the share of world trade covered by them between October 2024 and May 2025 have contributed to a volatile and unpredictable global trade landscape, the WTO Secretariat’s latest Trade Monitoring Update finds. At the same time, despite the backdrop of trade policy uncertainty, geopolitical tensions and regional conflicts, it sees intensifying engagement in pursuit of negotiated solutions to trade-related differences.

Released on 3 July, the mid-year update to the Secretariat's now-annual Trade Monitoring Report provides an overview of trade and trade-related policy developments from mid-October 2024 to mid-May 2025.

Commenting on the findings, WTO Director-General Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala said: "This Trade Monitoring Update reflects the disruptions we have been seeing in the global trading environment, with a sharp increase in tariffs. Only six months ago, about 12.5 per cent of world merchandise imports were impacted by such measures that had accumulated since 2009. That share has now jumped to 19.4 per cent. Yet amid the current trade crisis, we see encouraging signs of dialogue in pursuit of negotiated solutions. I urge WTO members to keep engaging to lower the temperature, to push for WTO-consistent approaches, and most fundamentally, to address the underlying problems by delivering on deep WTO reform."

The WTO Trade Monitoring Update points to a marked shift in the global trading environment in the review period, with new tariff measures in particular affecting a large amount of trade.

The value of global merchandise trade covered by new tariffs and other such measures implemented during the seven-month review period was estimated at US$ 2,732.7 billion (more than triple the US$ 887.6 billion in the 12-month period covered by the previous report, issued in late 2024). This amount represents the highest level of trade coverage by such new measures recorded in one reporting period since the WTO Secretariat started monitoring trade policy developments in 2009.

Since WTO monitoring started in 2009, many such measures have been introduced and never withdrawn. This gave rise over time to a growing stockpile of measures which, in recent years, has affected between 10 and 12.5 per cent of world merchandise imports. The WTO Secretariat estimates that as of mid-May, the figure had jumped to 19.4 per cent.

At the same time, after a series of trade actions by the United States since early 2025 – many of which it justified on national security and economic emergency grounds – there has been increased dialogue and intense efforts to find negotiated solutions, the Update notes. This includes the US-China agreement reached on 14 May 2025 in Geneva, which curtailed certain mutual tariff hikes, and was followed by further talks in London on 11 June. The United States and the United Kingdom announced a deal on 8 May, following it up on 16 June later with details on implementation.

Despite the challenging economic and trade policy environment, the Update notes, many members continue their efforts to facilitate trade, including in services.

Specific findings

1. The Trade Monitoring Update reveals a total of 644 trade measures on goods undertaken by WTO members and observers between mid-October 2024 and mid-May 2025.

2. Trade remedy initiations and terminations, such as anti-dumping measures, accounted for 296 of these measures. But while they accounted for 46 per cent of trade measures introduced during the review period – the highest number of new investigations in over a decade – their total trade coverage was narrow. Trade remedy investigations covered US$ 63.9 billion in trade (down from US$ 100.0 billion in the previous monitoring report), or 0.26 per cent of world merchandise trade; meanwhile, trade remedy terminations covered US$ 16.3 billion (up from US$ 7.6 billion), or 0.07 per cent of world trade.

3. In addition, 141 other trade-related actions (including tariff increases and export restrictions) were recorded, as were 207 trade-facilitating measures.

4. The trade coverage of the other trade-related actions implemented during the review period was estimated at US$ 2,732.7 billion (up from US$ 887.6 billion in the previous reportmonitoring report). This represents the highest level of trade coverage recorded in the WTO Trade Monitoring Report since its inception in 2009. The increase was largely driven by a sharp rise in import tariffs. About 83 per cent of this higher trade coverage, equivalent to US$ 2,261.3 billion, is directly linked to trade policy developments since early 2025.

5. The trade coverage of trade-facilitating measures introduced during the review period was estimated at US$ 1,038.6 billion (down from US$ 1,440.4 billion in the previous report). Examples of trade-facilitating measures include the elimination of import tariffs and the elimination or relaxation of quantitative restrictions affecting imports or exports.

6. The stockpile of tariff increases and other such import measures in force has grown steadily since 2009, when the WTO Secretariat began monitoring. At the end of May 2025, the value of trade covered by such measures was estimated at US$ 4,604.1 billion, representing 19.4 per cent of world imports. This represents an increase of 6.9 percentage points from 12.5 per cent at the end of 2024.

7. In the services sector, 69 new measures were adopted during the review period by 34 members and four observers, a significant decrease compared to the same period in 2024. Most of these measures demonstrated members' clear commitment to facilitate services trade, either by liberalizing conditions for service suppliers or by enhancing the regulatory framework, despite the challenging global trade environment.

8. Economic support measures, such as subsidies, stimulus packages, state aid or export incentives, have remained a key component of industrial policies. However, since April 2025, as trade barriers have risen, the relative use of direct support measures has declined and has been overtaken by regulatory tools. Initially focused on economic objectives, these support measures have increasingly shifted toward broader objectives, such as climate change mitigation, security of supply and national security.