With the central route of the Strait of Hormuz
laden with mines, ships are taking the northern route in Iranian waters or the southern
path in Omani waters. Both have risks.
·
The
strait is a critical global energy chokepoint through which a large share of
the world's crude oil exports passes.
·
The
main commercial shipping lane remains heavily mined, forcing vessels to use
alternative routes:
o A southern route near Oman.
o A northern route close to Iran's
coastline.
·
Between
Saturday and Monday, 109 vessels
transited the strait, the highest three-day total since the conflict began in
late February.
·
Despite
the recovery, traffic remains well below pre-war levels of more than 130
vessels per day.
·
A
backlog of approximately 500–600 ships
remains stranded or delayed, according to the International Maritime
Organization (IMO).
·
Tracking
shipping activity remains difficult because some vessels continue to sail with
their transponders switched off.
·
Much
of the increased traffic consists of Iran-linked oil tankers exporting crude
oil to Asian markets.
·
At
least 12 tankers carrying Iranian crude are
reportedly heading toward Asia.
·
Maritime
analysts noted that Iran's oil export operations are "back in
business" after months of disruption.
·
Ships
linked to companies from China, Pakistan, and India have also been observed
using the northern route near Iranian waters.
·
The
recovery in Iranian exports is expected to accelerate after the Trump
administration temporarily lifted oil sanctions on Iran.
·
Reduced
sanctions could allow Iran to sell oil more freely and potentially at better
prices than during the sanctions period.
·
A de
facto two-route system is developing:
o The northern route through
Iranian-controlled waters.
o The southern route protected by the U.S.
Navy near Oman.
·
The
southern route appears to be attracting increasing traffic under U.S. naval
protection.
·
U.S.
forces have stated that they remain committed to ensuring freedom of navigation
in the region.
·
Several
shipping companies have chosen the southern route despite Iran's directive that
vessels should transit through Iranian waters.
·
Improved
shipping access has allowed more crude oil to leave the Persian Gulf.
·
Oil
inventories trapped in the Gulf have fallen from more than 150
million barrels to about 103
million barrels within a week.
·
Increased
oil flows have contributed to downward pressure on global oil prices.
·
Analysts
caution that the recovery remains fragile and dependent on continued restraint
by Iran.
·
Any
attack on commercial vessels could quickly cause shipping traffic to collapse
again.
·
The
Joint Maritime Information Center has lowered the
threat level for shipping in the strait from severe to moderate
following the cease-fire and negotiations.
·
However,
navigational risks persist due to:
o Remaining sea mines.
o GPS signal interference.
o Ongoing military activity in the region.
·
The
IMO announced plans to evacuate approximately 11,000
stranded seafarers from the Persian Gulf.
·
Many
crew members have been trapped in the region for more than three months due to
security concerns.
·
The
evacuation will involve cooperation among Iran, Oman, the United States,
regional governments, and shipping companies.
·
Several
shipping operators continue to delay vessel movements because of uncertainty
regarding:
o Safe transit routes.
o Mine risks.
o Conflicting statements from Iran and the
United States regarding the strait's status.
·
Some
major shipping companies are waiting for further security assessments before
resuming normal operations.
·
Iran
and Oman indicated they are discussing possible transit fees for ships passing
through their territorial waters in the Strait of Hormuz.
·
Both
countries emphasized their sovereign rights over waters within the strait.
·
Shipping
executives have warned that imposing transit fees could:
o Increase transportation costs.
o Disrupt global trade.
o Challenge the principle of free navigation
through international waterways.
The
reopening of the Strait of Hormuz has led to a gradual recovery in shipping and
Iranian oil exports, helping ease pressure on global energy markets. However,
traffic remains far below normal levels, significant security risks persist,
and future uncertainty surrounding U.S.-Iran negotiations and possible transit
fees could continue to affect global trade and oil supplies.
[ABS News Service/24.06.2026]
Since
the United States lifted its naval blockade on Iran last week, the Strait of Hormuz,
a critical shipping route for crude oil, has seen a notable increase in the movement
of ships, many of them carrying Iranian oil. That’s even as U.S. and Iranian officials
try to close major gaps in their negotiations.
The
strait’s central route, long used by commercial ships, is laden with mines, forcing
companies to take one of two alternative paths: the southern route close to the
Omani coast or the northern route close to the Iranian shoreline.
From
Saturday through Monday, 109 vessels passed through the strait, the largest three-day
number since the war started in late February, according to Kpler, a global maritime
data firm. Traffic is a fraction of the more than 130 vessels that transited the
strait every day before the start of the war. A backlog of 500 to 600 ships remained,
according to the International Maritime Organization.
The
overall picture of shipping conditions in the region’s waters is incomplete. Ships
have transited the strait with their transponders off, making them difficult to
track. This account of the current situation in the Persian Gulf is based on interviews
with industry executives and analysts and an examination of ship tracking data.
Iran is “well and truly
back in business.”
A
major source of increased traffic came from Iran-linked ships carrying crude oil
to Asia via the strait’s northern route, near Larak Island. At least 12 tankers
with Iranian crude are moving toward Asia, according to an analysis by S&P Global’s Commodities at Sea, which provides data on trade flows.
“They
are well and truly back in business,” Michelle Wiese Bockmann, a maritime intelligence
analyst specializing in sanctioned oil flows at Windward, a maritime data company,
said of Iran. Aside from Iranian vessels, ships owned by companies based in China,
Pakistan and India were also observed taking the northern route, she said.
That
flow of oil, and the money Iran earns from it, is likely to pick up after the Trump
administration said Monday that it had temporarily lifted oil sanctions on Iran.
For years, Iran has been forced to sell at a discount.
A two-track path through
the strait is emerging.
It
is difficult to parse the exact number of ships using the northern and southern
routes. One container ship that transited on Saturday using the southern route was
the MSC Qingdao, which kept its location tracker on, according to Windward, a maritime
data company.
Transit
along the southern route, overseen by the U.S. Navy, appears to be picking up. “U.S.
forces remain present and vigilant to support freedom of navigation,” Capt. Tim
Hawkins, a spokesman for the U.S. Central Command, said on Monday.
And
crude is getting out, helping push down global prices. The volume of oil estimated
to be held in the Persian Gulf has fallen to 103 million barrels, from more than
150 million barrels a week ago, according to S&P Global.
By
using the southern route, operators were defying an Iranian directive issued late
last week that traffic must go through its waters.
“A
lot of the operators are not caring about what Iran says about how they have to
transit the strait,” said Dimitris Ampatzidis, a risk manager at Kpler.
Still,
recovery is fragile and will hold only as long as Iran does not attack any ships.
“If we have the Iranian regime going after some vessels, instantly we can see the
traffic will collapse again,” he said.
The
International Maritime Organization, a U.N. agency, said Tuesday that it would begin
an evacuation plan for the 11,000 seafarers who were stranded in the Persian Gulf
via the southern route. Many of them have been there for more than three months.
“This large-scale operation will be carried out in close cooperation with Iran,
Oman, all other coastal states in the region, the United States and the maritime
industry,” the agency said.
Traffic is far below
prewar levels and danger persists.
The
Joint Maritime Information Center, which monitors threat
assessments on high-risk shipping routes, said on Sunday that the risk of sending
ships through the strait was “moderate,” a level that had been lowered after the
agreement between the United States and Iran to stop fighting and begin 60 days
of talks.
“Ships
should consider resuming normal navigational profiles and maintain prudent situational
awareness during transit,” the center advised. But it
added that continued interference with GPS signals and “wider regional military
activity” warranted caution.
Some
major companies remained cautious because of the murkiness over what routes to take
and the process by which they should exit.
Harry
Vafias, the chief executive of Stealth Gas, said his three vessels, stuck in the
Persian Gulf for more than three months, were at a standstill. Too much was uncertain,
he said, citing the risk of mines and conflicting messages about the status of the
strait. “U.S.A. says it’s open while Iran says it’s closed,” he said.
The
German shipping company Hapag-Lloyd, which had four vessels and about 90 seafarers
stranded in the Persian Gulf as of Friday, will send its ships through when its
security team deems the situation safe, Tim Seifert, a company spokesman, said Monday.
What happens after the
two-month negotiating window ends is also unclear.
In
a joint statement on Tuesday, Iran and Oman appeared to confirm that they were discussing
imposing transit fees, emphasizing their “sovereign rights over their territorial
waters in the Strait of Hormuz.” Shipping executives have warned how damaging a
fee could be for global trade, which has largely operated on the premise that goods
can move freely through international waterways.