Strong Trade Growth in 2018 Rests on Policy Choices

Highlights

· World merchandise trade volume is expected to grow 4.4% in 2018, accompanied by GDP growth of 3.2% at market exchange rates.

· Faster trade expansion is being driven by stronger economic growth across regions, led by increased investment and fiscal expansion.

· Trade growth in 2018 is likely to fall within a range from 3.1% to 5.5% if current GDP forecasts come to pass, although a continued escalation of trade restrictive policies could lead to a significantly lower figure.

· Trade growth should moderate to 4.0% in 2019 even as global GDP growth slows slightly to 3.1%.

· The ratio of trade growth to GDP growth should remain at 1.4 in 2018, down slightly from 1.5 in 2017.

· Risks are centred on trade and monetary policy, where missteps could undermine economic growth and confidence.

· An index of export orders has recently weakened, possibly signalling an effect of greater uncertainty brought about by heightened trade tensions.

[WTO Press Release on Trade Statistics and Outlook dated 12 April 2018]