Super
El Niño Forecast to Reshape Global Skiing Conditions, Bringing Heavy Snow to
Western U.S. but Warmer, Drier Winters to Other Regions
The climate event is predicted to alter snowfall patterns across the
U.S. and Canada. Experts are starting to see how it might play out across ski
country.
·
A very
strong or “Super El Niño” is expected to influence global weather patterns
during winter 2026–27, potentially breaking historical temperature and
ocean-warming records.
·
The
phenomenon is likely to strengthen the southern storm track, bringing
above-average snowfall to California, Nevada, Utah, New Mexico and Southern
Colorado.
·
The
Pacific Northwest, northern Rockies, Upper Midwest, Great Lakes and southern
New England are expected to experience below-average snowfall and warmer
conditions.
·
The
Northeast may witness increased nor’easters and coastal storms, potentially
producing heavy snowfall, depending on temperature and storm tracks.
·
The
strongest impact is expected during January and February, with February and
March likely to bring the heaviest snowfall, particularly in the central and
southern Rockies.
·
Atmospheric
rivers may bring heavy snowfall to California and the Southwest but also
increase risks of flooding, mudslides and road closures.
·
Canada
is expected to experience a milder winter with below-average snowpack, although
high-elevation resorts in British Columbia may perform better.
·
Europe
faces uncertain snowfall prospects, while Japan is forecast to have average or
below-average snowfall in northern Honshu and Hokkaido.
·
Experts
recommend high-elevation ski resorts in Utah, Western Colorado, the Sierra
Nevada and Southern Colorado for better skiing prospects.
[ABS News Service/07.11.2026]
Godzilla has arrived. A super El
Niño is here.
What sounds like the plot of a
horror movie is actually a forecast for a climate event that is predicted to
shatter records and reshape global snowfall patterns this winter. An El Niño
results from an intricate interplay between ocean and atmosphere: The
temperature of the sea’s surface in the eastern Pacific Ocean near the Equator
warms, releases heat and affects the trade winds, which changes global weather
patterns. El Niños occur every two to seven years,
typically peaking from November to January.
For skiers, this year’s powerful
El Niño could mean abundant snow in some regions, while large expanses of North
America endure warm temperatures, rain or drought. Many skiers have been
anxiously watching the predictions and trying to game out where they should go
this winter, especially after a
disastrous season in much of the West last year.
Forecasters have recently been
issuing long-range projections for where and when the snow is likely to fall
during ski season. Here’s what to know.
When ocean temperatures warm more
than 2 degrees Celsius (3.6 degrees Fahrenheit) it is designated as a very
strong El Niño (words like “super” are popular descriptions, not scientific
ones). The National
Weather Service Climate Prediction Center has already declared that this super El Niño is likely to be “a
historic event” that will break previous
records. Ocean temperatures more than 2 degrees Celsius above normal have
already been recorded in the eastern Pacific, with temperatures exceeding 4
degrees Celsius above normal in some places.
Tracking the number of very
strong El Niños can be confusing, because the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Adminstration recently changed the index it uses to measure their strength,
to better account for climate change. Using the new index, it says, there have
been six very strong El Niños since 1950.
A super El Niño typically strengthens
the southern storm track and weakens the northern one. According to NOAA, heavier precipitation is more likely from California — with
snowfall concentrated in the mountains — to the Gulf Coast, while warmer and
drier air is expected to dominate the Midwest.
The Northeast, including upstate
New York, is expected to be warmer and wetter, with heavier-than-normal
precipitation, though it is unclear whether this will mean snow or rain.
Forecasters at the U.S. Geological Survey’s Climate Adaptation Science Centers expect an increased frequency of nor’easters and
coastal storms that could result in “multiple
big snow events over a few weeks” depending on
the storm track andtemperatures.
But remember: Forecasts,
especially long-range ones, are as fickle as the weather. El Niño “tilts the
odds, not the outcome,” said Sam Collentine, the
chief operating officer and a meteorologist at OpenSnow, a weather forecaster for ski regions.
The most recent super El Niño
produced a blizzard in Texas and New Mexico just after Christmas 2015 that
included tornadoes and up to two feet of snow, and experts said a record
nor’easter with two to three feet of snow that paralyzed the East Coast in
January 2016 was “energized” by that year’s very strong El Niño.
El Niño will most likely get off
to a slow start in December, peaking in January and February, with extended
snowfall into March and early April in the central Rockies and plains.
As for the heaviest snowfall,
“the trend tends to tilt it to the second half of winter, specifically February
and March,” said Mr. Collentine of OpenSnow. He noted that in Utah and Colorado, March
snowfall was above average in El Niño winters since 1982.
The Sierra Nevada, in California,
and the Southwest are forecast to get above-average snowfall, but some of that
will come in atmospheric rivers, which can deliver feet of snow — but also
flooding, mudslides and road closures.
“Skiers need to position
themselves so that they can get to their ski resorts before the storm,” said
Chad Merrill, a senior meteorologist and long-range expert for AccuWeather, a global weather data company.
Mr. Collentine
observed that “elevation could also have a bigger impact this winter with more
high-elevation snow events.”
Long-range forecasts suggest that
ski areas likely to get more snow than normal this winter will be in California
(including Mammoth Lakes and Lake Tahoe), Nevada, New Mexico, Southern Colorado
and Utah (central and southern).
Regions with less snow than
average will most likely include the Pacific Northwest, the northern Rockies
(Wyoming, Idaho and Montana), the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes, and southern
New England. The forecast for northern New England and the southern
Appalachians is unclear, with the possibility of near or above average
snowfall.
Forecasters say it is not yet
clear how central Colorado, home to Vail, Aspen, Breckenridge and other
resorts, will be affected, but March and April are the best bet for increased
snow.
Canada will most likely be among
the losers in this super El Niño. “Winter snowpack is predicted mostly to be on
the low side,” said Eleni Armenakis, a spokeswoman
for Environment
and Climate Change Canada, adding that past super El Niños “brought exceptionally mild winter temperatures
across Canada’s provinces.” However, higher-elevation resorts in the interior
of British Columbia may fare better.
El Niño has a less direct effect
on Europe, leading forecasters to characterize their projections there as “low
confidence.” Some forecasts suggest a mild winter with below-average snowfall
in the Alps, while others suggest above-normal snow from France to western Austria.
Japan’s national weather agency favors an average to below-average snow season in northern
Honshu and Hokkaido, which has been typical during strong El Niño winters. But
as Mr. Collentine said, “An average Japanese winter
is still one of the snowiest anywhere.”
“Western Colorado, Utah, the
Sierra, especially the high‑elevation resorts,” said Mr. Merrill, the
AccuWeather forecaster.
“I’m still a Colorado person. I
think those would receive enough snow, especially in the heart of the ski
season,” said Paul Pastelok, the lead U.S. long-range
forecaster at AccuWeather.
“Northern New Mexico or Southern
Colorado — Taos, Ski Santa Fe, Wolf Creek and Telluride — in late February into
March. A strong backup is Lake Tahoe in February and March,” said Mr. Collentine of OpenSnow.
“When in doubt, go to Utah,” said
the M.I.T. climatologist Judah Cohen.
The consensus: If you’re planning
a destination ski trip, go West, go high and go late.