Trade Deficit Narrows Sharply in November as Imports Fall and U.S. Exports Rebound

·         November Trade Deficit Narrows to Five-month Low of $24.53 bln

·         Lower Gold, Oil and Coal Imports Drive Deficit Fall

·         Exports to US Rebound; Up nearly 10% m/m, over 21% y/y

·         Commerce Secretary says India, US Close to Framework Trade Deal

India’s merchandise trade deficit narrowed to a five-month low of $24.53 billion in November, well below market expectations of $32 billion, as imports of gold, crude oil and coal declined, according to government data released on December 15. The deficit had hit a record $41.68 billion in October.

Merchandise exports to the United States rebounded strongly, rising nearly 10% month-on-month to $6.92 billion and more than 21% year-on-year, making the U.S. India’s largest export destination in November. Overall merchandise exports climbed to $38.13 billion, while imports fell sharply to $62.66 billion from $76.06 billion a month earlier.

Commerce Secretary Rajesh Agrawal said India has “held fort” on U.S. exports despite high tariffs and confirmed that New Delhi and Washington are close to finalising a framework agreement aimed at lowering reciprocal tariffs. He recently led a delegation that met Rick Switzer in Delhi to advance bilateral trade talks.

The rebound follows a dip in U.S.-bound exports in October and comes amid policy measures rolled out by the government of Prime Minister Narendra Modi, including tax cuts, export incentives and labour reforms, to cushion the economy from steep U.S. tariffs. Modi also spoke with U.S. President Donald Trump last week.

On the services side, exports are estimated at $35.86 billion and imports at $17.96 billion, implying a services trade surplus of about $17.9 billion. Detailed services trade data will be released later by the Reserve Bank of India.

<MoC Press Release>

<Quick Estimates>

[ABS News Service/15.12.2025]

 

Ø  The cumulative exports (merchandise & services) during April-November 2025 is estimated at US$ 562.13 Billion, as compared to US$ 533.16 Billion in April-November 2024, an estimated growth of 5.43%.

Ø  The cumulative value of merchandise exports during April-November 2025 was US$ 292.07 Billion, as compared to US$ 284.60 Billion during April-November 2024, registering a positive growth of 2.62%.

Ø  The cumulative Non-Petroleum exports in April-November 2025 valued at US$ 254.08 Billion registered an increase of 5.86% as compared to US$ 240.02 Billion in April-November 2024.

Ø  Major drivers of merchandise exports growth in November 2025 include Engineering Goods, Electronic Goods, Gems & Jewellery, Drugs & Pharmaceuticals and Petroleum Products.

Ø  Engineering Goods exports increased by 23.76 % from US$ 8.90 Billion in November 2024 to US$ 11.01 Billion in November 2025.

Ø  Electronic Goods exports increased by 38.96 % from US$ 3.46 Billion in November 2024 to US$ 4.81 Billion in November 2025.

Ø  Gems & Jewellery exports increased by 27.80 % from US$ 2.07 Billion in November 2024 to US$ 2.64 Billion in November 2025.

Ø  Drugs & Pharmaceuticals exports increased by 20.91 % from US$ 2.16 Billion in November 2024 to US$ 2.61 Billion in November 2025.

Ø  Petroleum Products exports increased by 11.65 % from US$ 3.52 Billion in November 2024 to US$ 3.93 Billion in November 2025.

India's merchandise trade deficit declined to a five-month low of $24.53 billion in November, driven by a fall in gold, oil and coal imports, while exports to the U.S. picked up, government trade data released on Monday (15.12.2025) showed.

Economists had expected the November trade deficit to be $32 billion, according to a Reuters poll, compared to a record deficit of $41.68 billion in the previous month.

Merchandise exports to the U.S. rose nearly 10% month-on-month to $6.92 billion in November.

"India has held fort on the U.S. exports despite tariffs," Rajesh Agrawal, India's commerce secretary told reporters.

Agrawal said that India and the U.S. were close to finalising a "framework" agreement but declined to specify a timeline.

"There's a fair expectation that both countries will be able to agree to a deal to lower reciprocal tariffs...We are positively engaged with the U.S. to see if we can close it sooner than later," he said.

A team led by Agrawal met U.S. Deputy Trade Representative Rick Switzer in Delhi last week to discuss bilateral trade including talks on a proposed trade pact.

The talks come after exports to the U.S. fell nearly 9% year-on-year to $6.31 billion in October, though they were higher than $5.47 billion in September.

Exports to US Rebound

India's overall merchandise exports rose to $38.13 billion in November from $34.38 billion in October, while imports fell to $62.66 billion from $76.06 billion.

Merchandise exports to the U.S., India's largest export market, rose over 21% year-on-year in November, compared to $5.71 billion a year earlier.

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi's administration has rolled out measures including consumer tax cuts, an export promotion package and labour reforms to cushion the economy from the impact of steep U.S. tariffs.

Modi spoke with U.S. President Donald Trump last week.

While New Delhi seeks relief on key export lines, Washington is pushing India to lower tariffs and non-tariff barriers on U.S. goods and open its market to American farm products, including soybean and grain sorghum.

The government data showed November services exports are estimated at $35.86 billion and imports at $17.96 billion, suggesting a services trade surplus at $17.9 billion, according to Reuters calculation.

India's central bank releases detailed monthly services trade data about two weeks after the government's initial estimates.